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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Yes, thank you for this, you have set me free of the "waiting for the close" vice. I confess, I traded during screen time out of boredom, and that took me back, but I am in rehab . I am using HiLo bars, in order not to be biased by the open and the close, the colors are just courtesy of NT that I did not change, but they are not essential during the analysis, I will just remove them in future post. I see this more as a way to condense a tick chart, that as an interval preference. That is again a result of screen time that I appreciate very much DB. Yep, I have found fewer opportunities, but also fewer false entries and less trades per day, hence less commissions. I am not hardwired yet into a bar interval, just wanted to explore a bigger picture that provided me opportunities in the 90 min TF that is why I chose the 1 min as a leap from the 30 tick. I am currently in this process, I have posted something regarding this in the eurusd thread. There is a problem I face: Lets say I spot a DT around a relevant R level in the 1 Min, I get into my 30 tick chart to look for an entry level, and find a LH and a Break of a LSL. I take the short, with a stop above the LSH. Lets assume the LSH holds and price starts to go down. How do you recommend I use the different intervals levels in order to extract the most of the trade? (After I wrote the question, I realize I have the answer from previous post and the whole forum (There are no intervals, they are in my head, there is just price action), but I leave it just in case there is something new you would like to add)
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Interesting place to think about what to do: Perhaps a zoom in would clarify or confuse (:haha:) even more: Perhaps buy the BO of the hinge? I will post a follow up later.
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Levels for the morning: I have changed the color of the levels from last year, in order to give more relevance (in my head) to the levels that are being formed this year.
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This is the next day (Jan 4 2012)
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G, stop lurking and come back to the forum
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I did not know where to put this, but this was definitely not something to post int TIF or in the Journal Thread so I place it here. Due to my inclination to look though the keyhole, I am trying to expand my horizon getting out of the 30 tick chart. After finishing my first round of Backtesting, I found positive but disappointing results (50% profit 50% commissions), this added to what DB said some days ago about "small setups yield small profits", I am trying to identify something actionable in larger bar intervals. Here is what I have found so far in a chart from a year ago. I post it for comments, just in case I am starting with the wrong foot and maybe some senior member´s wisdom can save me some failed setup backtesting hours. Conventions are the following: BC: BUYING CLIMAX DB: DOUBLE BOTTOM BO: BREAKOUT RET: RETRACEMENT FO: FAKEOUT LH: LOWER HIGH HL: HIGHER LOW BLSL: BREAK OF LAST SWING LOW BLSH: BREAK OF LAST SWING HIGH FT: FOLLOW THROUGH TB: TRIPLE BOTTOM MP: MIDPOINT
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Looks like we are out of the TR, but given the strength of the BO and the absence of a RET it would have been difficult to enter on the long side (at least from my perspective) Now I just wanted to provide some context using the daily.
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Db, thanks, I have been focusing more in waves in my analysis, just found interesting that the market had found a top at a previous TR top. But after your previous posts I have found many new things i was not paying attention to before.
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A BO with a nice RET, but we are now in the middle of another TR, not an easy market.
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DB thanks, I was aware of Apple, just did not want to point out a fundamental issue in the W forum. What I meant was that 68 -70 was a level of R (top of an oct TR), and prices reached that level before defining a new course, I guess people were not really defined about how to interpret the news (better eps but disappointing income), so at first sellers pushed but were stopped around 54, then buyers got exited and pushed for a 14 points run, then after a 50% pullback they failed to hold a HH (DT). Then a break of LSL and a strong downwave were a confirmation of news being bad. Then the last train for bears was the RET to 60, from then we all know what happened. What I was pointing out, was that even if one is not aware of the news, or how to compute the EPS and the income figures in a valuation model, just following PA gives an edge.
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Levels for EURUSD. Looks like we are in the middle of a hinge.
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After buyers met R at 68, the market collapsed and we are at the bottom of the TR we were just trying to get out. A hell of a RET :haha: :haha: My levels for today:
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Thank you DB, This is helpful as always. Will look for ways to include your comments in my strategy design as I am sure they will improve my results as they have done so far. I am now on the look for something that perhaps is not possible to get (Avoid the Chop) and also with a doubt about how close must the DL or the SL follow price. The greatest challenge so far, has been to avoid the Chop in RT, the two examples provided in the chart today with the word "confusing" where the kind of environment where I lose the most money on back testing, because by the time I realize there is no FT, i am already in the red (2 points per trade of Stop Loss is the average). Will have to find a way to minimize this problem in the future. As an example here are over 100 trades, where the exit is the break of the Last Swing High or Low. As I enter a period of choppiness I start experimenting what i have called "confusing" behavior in today´s chart, and that starts draining my account, whit what I consider an unacceptable drawdown. I have also experimented with an exit at the break of the DL or the SL, and got the following results: In this case, the SL was adjusted to follow price touching the lows or the highs of the swings that were equal of larger than 1 point, but I don't know if I am following price too close and not allowing prices to breath, an example of the confusion I usually get in RT is the following: Anyway, this were just some thinking out loud, in case any other member in the forum has experienced the same problems and perhaps has a different perspective on the issue.
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My recount for today's, action: All is hindsight so I don´t know if this should go in the CSW thread. 1. I did not take the long from what looks like an inverse H&S, guess that was a good entry point as we were testing the top of the range, a SL was broken and a HL appeared. 2. This moment was confusing, as there was a break of the LSL and a LL, In RT my thinking was SAR, but that would have taken away some profits. (Comments are welcome about how to deal with this kind of behavior) 3. The behavior was almost the same as in 2, the difference was that this time the sellers were decided, perhaps 64 was an old R level that I did no see?. Is there any obvious difference between 2 and 3 that I am not seeing?, in this case an entry would have yielded a decent profit. 4. I see a V reversal as there was no HL before the break of LSH, have not really studied these pattern so no comments here. As a note, my analysis was that 53 was the MP of the opening TR. 5. The same case that i had in 2, a Break above LSH, and then a break below LSL. (Observations welcome)
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Levels for today: Seems that we broke above the TR Top and are currently in the middle of a RET:
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Db, I have 2 questions: 1. While surfing what weight should be given to small TRs (20 poins or less) S/R levels? 2. After a Level is crossed back and forth, one should discard it as SR?
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It looks like a hinge.
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If anyone want to discuss backtesting issues I will be in the chat until 11:00 Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «
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Levels for today. Given the Hinge formed during the past few days I would wait for a BO before taking a position either long or short.
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Db, I am a little lost then. The TIF levels are traced according to past TRs, some of these TRs are old and the S/R levels found through them have been crossed, anyhow, when watching PA around those levels one can see a change in pace in the tick chart and usually around those levels I have been able to find interesting setups (hinges, DB, LH, HL, etc) What I understand from what you are writing is that I have to find S/R in RT via PA (Without tracing lines), and then check the history to see if that level corresponds to an extreme or MP of a BOX? Now, I understand that we are in the middle of a TR between 0 an 50, but within that large TR, there are smaller TRs and S/R levels, so how does one take this levels into account in RT, or one should not pay attention to those minor levels and focus on PA to define current S/R levels in order to surf. Thanks again.
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Db, as always thanks. I am trading intraday only, and not holding positions after the end of the trading session (11:00 in my case) so I can only take advantage of what happens between the open and the end of the session, so essentially I have to surf for the time being. My plans for the future are to start taking longer term trades, but that will have to wait until I am proficient with intraday. The problem I think am having is that when I actually reach a mayor S/R level during my session, I trade it as a minor S/R and end up with a 10 point trade at best, when I could get 50 points if I just sit on my hands. Will give that a thought to see what solution I can come up with. Now, regarding that hinge you mentioned, I did not see it as I was focused on the hinges found on the 30 tick chart (looking at the trees again) but I think I would have not trade that hinge as the short entry was too close to my S level at 30. Anyway, thanks for your comments I will take them into account.
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Chat link: Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «
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I am currently working in honing my context definition skills: I am using the 15m and the 60 m charts as DB suggested but I am having difficulty getting a convincing definition to use as a base for decision making. What i see is current weakness after the failed BO at the top of the current TR. But the 60 minute tells me that right now we are approaching an important level (28-34) and still within the context of an uptrend towards the top of the TR. This could either mark the continuation of the down move all the way to the bottom of the TR at 05 or a reversal at the MP of the TR towards the top. Any suggestions? P.S. In the 15 min chart SDS means Stronger Down Swing
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My levels for the morning:
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Interesting thread. Have you backtested all of your setups?