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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Long term analysis for FGBL: Shorter term context: Conclusions: Still within the context of the shorter term TR, above the MP of the last downswing, so buyers are showing strength. But in the longer term context we are inside a TR zone between 42.44 and 43.63 and below the MP at 43.04 that might provide R on the upside so will have to be on the look for a reversal of the shorter term uptrend.
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Perhaps a longer term view can help:
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For some reason the two charts on my post look the same, the first backtesting results are here:
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This is a 11/29 EMA setup with a three crows pattern or three white knight pattern (depending on direction) for retracement identification. Is traded on a 15 min chart. Although it was a good strategy for most of 2010-2011, it did not work very well last year. Backtesting Results Off course, one could argue that I am using the wrong EMA combo, just in case, after an optimization with 2000 different scenarios the best I got was 11/39, and the account balance looked like this in back testing: Not so promising... I gave up on magic MA holy grails and started studying Price Action. My two cents
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Anyone interested in bringing this thread back from the death?
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We analyze oil among other things in the Wyckoff Forum, no indicators just plain price and volume The Wyckoff Forum - Traders Laboratory You are welcome to join
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After bouncing at the MP of the downswing from 97.22, price is stuck in the chop around the MP of the current TR. A break below PDL could mean the intention of sellers to test the bottom of the TR, a break above 97.38 could mean that buyers are willing to defend their position and a test of the top could be the next course of action. As for levels of interest:
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Are you trading multiple contracts? After I take profits in the first one, It takes the psychological pressure on the position, and I can manage the rest of the position stress free as it is in break even.
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The entry I am working on:
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For those enthusiast about the current rally in stocks, a little bit of context, just in case things might turn sour.
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After a poke that stopped at 97.18 sellers started pushing prices back inside the TR, so far we are back in the chop. Short term levels:
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G, is great to have you back in the W forum.
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You are missing S/R, the market reacted where it did because it hit either support or resistance, the fact that "your lines" cross through those same levels does not mean that they are explaining the movement. The lines are in your head, one could trace thousands of other lines in this and other time intervals, what matters is what price does and at which points buyers overpower sellers and viceversa. My 2 cents.
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Unless you are a journalist trying to write an article about oil, the why is not important. You have to focus in the fact that it retraced and try to understand if it is just a retracement (opportunity to get in the trend) or a change in the trend (reversal), in which case the chance is to close longs and/or go short. My 2 cents.
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Hi DB, Is the last red bar highlighted to point out that buyers started pushing up again at 95?. I guess that the green point is a possible long (stop buy), in case buyers keep pushing prices higher tomorrow. Am I getting at least part of the message??? Great "hearing" from you. You got it.
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I am getting stats first, but I guess the stop would go in the top of the Ret (LSH). Perhaps yes, I will post analysis results when done so you can see what I get. No, I am testing the setup everywhere I find it, after I finish I will add filters to define if the occurrence around a S/R area increases the odds.
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Tom, How do define the establishment of a LH? Ticks away from the LSH? The way I see it, once the LH is set, it still has to break LSL in order to make a stronger downwave. That is why I wait for the BO, one could also short the BO, but I decided to start with the RET. I am highlighting the BOs in my analysis, but will first get stats on the Ret after the BO.
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What an interesting thread. Definitetly "Deja Vu" :crap:
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Hi, I am testing this setup, have not finished yet but so far looks good, perhaps you could use it in the bund and tell me how it looks. The example is for a short, but it works in the same way on the long, just in the opposite direction.
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Any suggestions how to deal with this?
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Sellers held their ground around the top of the TR and after pushing through S at the M are on their way to the bottom at 95, lets see if they can make it. As for levels we already broke below the PDL:
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Mirus is a good Introducing Broker. Besides trading 6E beats EURUSD in leverage and in commissions.
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After hitting the MP of the current TR area, prices bounced rapidly towards the top of the TR: And for levels: For those still interested in the chat : http://stinto.net/en/chat.htm;jsessionid=471AE45D2F4D4F86613F6D4D3FD56067?refId=sn6x5#
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I guess that at this stage if you don´t have a clear and specific set of rules, your mind is going to take over during RT and screw you up. We were talking about that with G at the chat, and how objective setups can help overcome this flaw in human hardware.:haha: I am currently defining the odds for every setup I am going to trade, I started with hinges some weeks ago and got very interesting results. What I am trying to get here is, what are the odds of a DT not to fail when I spot it in the 1 min, for example, if I get that 80% of DTs don't fail around R, then I will trade DTs in Real life, but if i get that 80% of DTs fail, then perhaps I will end up fading the DTs . But first I have to do the back testing and calculate the odds. My 2 cents.
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How do you see that?