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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Have you guys explored the posibility of using options instead of the underlying to take long term trades in stocks and commodities EOD, I guess that if the distance to stop is equivalent to the premium, one would have the advantage of protecting the trade, but in case the maket turned around before expiration one would still be on the trade, something like a trade resurrection, risk free. Perhaps this is nonsense, i just wanted to know if someone has explored this.
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I agree with tupapa, if one is only trading EOD it is harder for the bucket shops to screw you up, although not impossible, i read the story in a magazine of a trader who lost millions of a 20 M usd account because of stupidity of course and because the fx dealer he used consistently screw him over, not executing his stops and other stuff like that. Why he stayed in bucket shop fx with all that money beats me, but the point is when you counterparty is your so called "broker" there are some perverse incentives to run away with your money.
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Fundamental Analysis - Relative Valuation / DCF Valuation
Niko replied to Larry1234's topic in Market News & Analysis
Interesting subject. I guess PE valuation would also be an interesting thing to talk about in this thread and the whay DCF valuation and PE valuation interelate. One thing, do you make your own valuations or rely on analyst recomendation reports to define an intrinsic value? -
G, what are you testing in FX? EUR USD is W friendly, I have not ever touched the other pairs so I could not tell. As for instrument you can always use 6E and save yourself the trouble with the bucket shops.
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Great system, have been testing it on intraday with very good results, one has to define the exit strategy but that is just a byproduct of backtesting.
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Got it. It´s a chop minefield, :haha:
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Db, do you refer to 1) the current situation of the oil market, or are you referring to 2) the typical behavior of oil. If it is the first situation, I think I will stick to oil, because the main goal is to integrate my short term analysis to a long term view of the market (long term in this case is just a few days, for starters) and my short term positions will remain in oil. If it is the second, would you please elaborate on what takes you to that conclusion. Thanks as always.
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Don´t overwork yourselves!
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Currently I enter a trade with multiple contracts, but as I am focussing on the 1 min for setups and the 30 tick for execution it has been very hard to keep the trade open for long. For example, lets imagine a break of DL, a LH and a break of LSL around a level or R, with a stop entry 1 tick below the LSL. That has proven to be a good strategy so far for me. All this happens in the 1 min, I take the short and start closing contracts as buyers strength signals start showing up: Break of the first SL HL Break of LSH Reaching of next S level. I try to keep the last contract as long as possible, but I am currently closing it as I get a contrary setup, that is when 1 to 3 happen around S, just to find out later that this was just a small pullback within a larger downtrend. I know I could solve this issue with a reentry, but I have not tested any other setup so I do not have any other entry that I can use. But I have also thought that if I take a longer term perspective I could change the way in which I close the trades in order to take advantage of a favorable entry. I am sure someone else has traveled this path and has already found a solution.
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For those enjoying the short ride in oil take into account we are approaching the oct- dec TR so we might face: Rejection at S at the top Chop as we go trough the TR Continuation if we manage to break through. I guess that sitting tight while prices go through the TR is not going to be easy for some shorts out there. From now on I will join the EOD team as after a long process in the Intraday world I have finally found what I wanted (thanks DB) and now my biggest challenge is to be able to hold on and sit tight . The goal now is to be able to enter in the 1 tick to minimize stop distance as much as possible and be able to hold the trade as long as the trend lasts. Besides I am kinda lonely in the chat :haha:
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Nice to have a new member. Welcome Oleg, you will definetly find your path to profitability here. Just do as DB says. And buy his book, is Like reading Wyckoff between the lines.
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Thank you, your comment is a must read for begginers. Forex dealers are 21st century bucket shops.
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Tupapa, in the case of S1 how do you define the entry point in the HL, ticks away from LSL, information from a smaller interval (30 min, etc) or would you wait for the break of LSH in order to take the trade.
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Follow up on oil: Out of the TR, watch out for the RET. I don´t have anything smart to say about volume, but if someone has anything to say about it I would appreciate it.
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I will not be posting any more TIF charts for the time being as I will be focusing on backtesting for the next weeks. I will be available for chat, if anyone in the trading group is interested just PM me.
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I would not buy this at 58, if I was long at a lower level, and that must have happened intraday below 56 I would hold my long until i see if the SL is broken and R is overtaken. I might be traumatized, but right now I can only see chop in that chart, so I would wait for a BO of R before considering a long.
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After a REV around the top of the TR prices have plunged and after a RET to the MP of the last downswing sellers are pushing again towards the bottom of the TR around 96.81. But that level did not provide S last time it was reached so, one could expect it to be easily overtaken. Below 81, 64 is the next level to watch (PDL). If 64 fails to hold we would definitely be in the realms of the 96.92-94.94 TR. Levels: Chat will be on from 9:00 to 12:00 Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «
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Chat Link: Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «
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We are still inside the TR between 96.81 and 98.15, the trend is up and above the MP where a hinge formed yesterday. As for levels:
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Something that has helped me in using the TR levels is to identify if the line represents the entry into a TR or the exit from a TR. once one plots these lines one tend to forget that they are essentially the limits of a previous value area.
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After finding S at the bottom of the TR around 95 breaking out to the upside on the top. We are above the MP of the 96.81-98.15 TR which is bullish. If buyers can hold prices above the MP they might reach the top at 98.15. As for levels we are already above the PDH. A break above 82 will take us into territory that has not been visited in a while (gray lines)
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G, now that you mention options. Have you checked out the options on the CL contract? Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI)
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Chat Link: Your Own Chat - Free & Easy! ? » stinto.net «
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Oil for today: The longer term view: Still struggling within the TR: Levels at the shorter term level: