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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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During the morning I was focused on oil, I was using the same parameters to define the setup in gold, but there were too many setups showing up, so I guess something is wrong with my parameters. So for now i will stick to oil at least in the log. Today was a mess for the setup, in the chop I get entries all the time, and that hurts profitability that today was gross negative 13 ticks, one has to add commissions and slippage and start to cry :crap:. Still have too much work to go through.
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We are currently within a TR between 68.7 and 85.9, at the time of this post we are around the MP where sellers and buyers are still pushing without having been able to get a following. So far we have a LH, but we still need to break below LSL if sellers are going to commit to reach the bottom of the TR. As for plans: I have not been able to get many good trades around MPs so I thin waiting for a extreme is the best choice, if sellers manage to take the LSL and reach S at 68, wait for a HL in order to define a REV and buy that, or wait for a BO and a LH in order to define a RET and short that. If the LSL holds and buyers can take the LSH and reach R at 85 then wait for a LH in order to short a REV or a HL after a BO in order to buy a RET.
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We are currently within a TR between 68.7 and 85.9, at the time of this post we are around the MP where sellers and buyers are still pushing without having been able to get a following. So far we have a LH, but we still need to break below LSL if sellers are going to commit to reach the bottom of the TR. As for plans: I have not been able to get many good trades around MPs so I thin waiting for a extreme is the best choice, if sellers manage to take the LSL and reach S at 68, wait for a HL in order to define a REV and buy that, or wait for a BO and a LH in order to define a RET and short that. If the LSL holds and buyers can take the LSH and reach R at 85 then wait for a LH in order to short a REV or a HL after a BO in order to buy a RET.
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After breaking the trend channel to the upside and exiting the 89.3-91.2 TR we have entered a new congestion area between 91.3 and 92.3 with an MP in 91.8. Buyers have already stalled and have to break the LSH at 91.74 to show they are still committed. If sellers can hold the LSH then a DT or a LH will form and then it will mean that sellers must break below the 91.3 S and then 91.2 in order to go back to the previous TR. Plans: if the DT forms short the BO to the downside of the TR and then wait for a test of the 91.20 S level to see if the trade will fail or if sellers can push harder and reach the bottom of the TR. If the LSL at 91.1 holds and the trend resumes a Buy at S above 91.17 or 33 in the form of a REV would be triggered.
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After breaking the trend channel to the upside and exiting the 89.3-91.2 TR we have entered a new congestion area between 91.3 and 92.3 with an MP in 91.8. Buyers have already stalled and have to break the LSH at 91.74 to show they are still committed. If sellers can hold the LSH then a DT or a LH will form and then it will mean that sellers must break below the 91.3 S and then 91.2 in order to go back to the previous TR. Plans: if the DT forms short the BO to the downside of the TR and then wait for a test of the 91.20 S level to see if the trade will fail or if sellers can push harder and reach the bottom of the TR. If the LSL at 91.1 holds and the trend resumes a Buy at S above 91.17 or 33 in the form of a REV would be triggered.
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You are totally right and non offense is taken, the approach as it is presented lacks something very important, that is context, I guess that is where all the learning comes to kick in and one has to define in RT which setups are backed by the appropriate context and avoid those that are not. But still a long road to get there. As db said there are only three things one can trade a REV a BO and a RET. What i am trying to do is to narrow what i will look for in price at those levels.
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No, i am using only the info provided in the 5 range chart. Yes Exits have not been tested yet, but for the moment i am testing the break of last swing. I am testing both, but in theory yes. No
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Sorry, most of my audience come from the Wyckoff forum where we use those acronyms all the time, so i forgot to translate. That is rude, i apologize. LSH: last swing high DT: double top RT: Real time MP: mid point TR: trading range DL,: demand line TIF analysis, :trading in foresight, comes from the Wyckoff forum, relates to planing your trades before the market opens. LSL: last swing low SL: supply line
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I actually look at a 30 tick bar (not range) to get a glimpse of what is happening inside the range. The exit is simple, stop at the last swing, and trail 1 tick above or below the last swing, if only one contract, if multiple contracts, one can decide different exits for each contract.
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I am still so far away from telling the difference in character of one instrument to another, :doh:. I just see the same patterns now, but in different instruments, guess I will have to go back to the testing lab to see what I missed. Perhaps you have already told me and I have not realized it yet.
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Db, You mentioned today in the chat that gold was something you hang on to, how do you tell the difference between an instrument that is good for daytrading from one that is good for EOD?
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Did you take any trades today?. It was particulary choppy.
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Today the setup provided 11 entries, if one eliminates those that did not meet all the criteria then one would only take into account 7 of them (the green ones): Remember that the criteria is: Buy: Break of SL+HL+ Break of LSH around a predetermined level of S/R. Sell: Break of DL +LH +Break of LSL around a predetermined level of S/R Trades in Red did not meet at least one of the criteria. The net result was 24 ticks, add two ticks of slippage and you are at Break even. for the day
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DB has a book, it is great as it makes clear a lot of procedure that is not in the original W course, but I suggest you read the course first.
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Seeker, my advise is: 1. Read the course 2. Post your doubts about the course 3. Come to the chat if you are daytrading and watch price in real time 4. When you start seeing something in the price waves, define a setup and build a system around that. 5. Write a plan 6. Backtest it 7. Forward test it 8. Fix all the bugs you will find in your system 9. You are ready to go:) This will take between a year or less depending on your persistence and discipline, but if you do the whole thing you will be a good trader. The Wyckoff community will be there to support you!
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Taking into account that there is a new chat tool in TL I will be using it from now on.
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Had some technical difficulties for posting earlier. Here are my levels for this morning. We are at the open at an important level at the top of a the TR (91.17). So far sellers are stopping buyers form advancing above R, lets see if they can hold it and provide a good short. Or perhaps the fact that the trendline was broken give buyers a reason to feel more confident and break above R and taking prices to higher levels. Plans: Buy the BO of the TR or Sell the REV.
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Lets hope "past performance is not indicative of future results" :haha:, the last two times we were around this levels things did not go as well in the months following the record level news. The first time the dot com bubble exploded and the second time the too big to fail guys almost sent us to the ice age.
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Have you been to the Wyckoff forum, sounds like you could contribute and learn a lot from what is in there.
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Edgar, hi. What kind of analysis do you use to define entries?
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Great Eminiman! Looking forward for your posts.
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great, now I can see your charts. Where are you posting the day´s activity?
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Problem solved, thank you TL administrator and thank you Db.
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Cool avatar, i feel safer already.
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Yes, I did exactly what you said but it did not work.