Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
Niko
-
Content Count
800 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by Niko
-
We have broken above the Top of the TR after a fakeout to the downside. We are currently within a TC, above the MP and getting close to the top at the same time we are approaching R from the mid feb TR. If we manage to enter the 00-18 TR a long would be the thing to do after a HL around S. If we find R at 00 wait for a retest on a LH in order to define a short, but take into account that we will be possibly still in the TC so the downside potential is limited by the LOLR.
-
Prices fond S at the bottom of the TR yesterday around 11:00 and buyers pushed it easily above the top and all the way into the 92.2-93.2 TR. We are within an uptrending channel and above the MP, so far we are bullish given the fact that all SLs have been broken the demand line is intact and we are making HHs. Buyers can keep pushing in order to take prices towards the top of the TC and the TR around 93.2, if they manage to break above 92.7 the downtrend line from mid february would be broken, but we have to stay alert for sellers trying to defend the downtrend within the hinge. If buyers give up, and that can happen anywhere given the densely populated R zone a break below the DL would be required in order to motivate a short, that should be accompanied by a LH.. Levels to observe (9 removed): 3.70 3.20 3.50 2.30 1.70 1.30 Plans: Buy a RET around S Short a REV around R
-
Read A LOT, but be very carefull, whatever literature that sounds like a sales pitch probably is, learn about how the markets work, if necesary read regulation, trade regulated auction markets, not dealer based ones. Now the most important WRITE A TRADING PLAN if you do not, you WILL lose most or all of the money. To do that, you need to define an analytic approach, fundamental or technical or both, study the markets, identify repetitive patterns, formulate hypothesis, prove them making experiments (backtesting), prove them again trading them in replay ( forward testing) if after all that work you are still around and find something profitable. Open a DEMO ACCOUNT and trade it for a while, double it or triple it without losing too much trying. Then you can open a small account and trade it, keep a journal and a log, study your results and try to fix your problems. If you can double your small account, i guess you can start adding money, KNOWING THAT AT ANY TIME the market can take EVERYTHING and leave you homeless, so bettter be careful. If I am forgeting something, I guess a senior member could add more words. My 2 cents.
-
Thanks for your comments. I have a question though, why would you short within the trend channel and above S.
-
I will look into it, perhaps I am trading at the wrong hours. :haha:
-
I just found this reading another thread about ES Trading with indextrader7: Help me find the pattern? I personally have not payed attention to that. Nevertheless, weeks ago we were discussing with Tommer on the chat how oil started to move after we leave the chatroom at 11:00 I thought it was a coincidence so I did not bother to dig deeper.
-
Before the open, buyers were making an attempt to BO above the Top of a hinge that coincided with the MP of the TR and the MP of the last relevant downswing. Buyers had been able to mark a HL and were breaking above the LSH, all bullish. Things to do: If prices held above 94.04 buying a RET could have been a good idea, but with the clarity that prices could stop at the top of the TC, if the TC top was taken out there is still R around 96 that could imply a larger move to the upside or an opportunity to short a REV. If prices did not advance far away from 94 then a short of a LH and the break of a DL could bring a good trade as the LOLR is pointing to the downside.
-
a and b. Not really, why, do you see something?
-
At the open, prices were rising after hitting the bottom of the TR premarket. The rise was marked by a TC, at 9:00 after price entered into overbought territory, sellers pushed with strength and managed to push prices to the premarket S at 93.4, that happened to be also the TC MP. 1. The first call to action was a HL and a Break of SL at S. 2. This first trade could have been short lived or not depending on exit style (not being tested now).In fact in this case It would have been closed and reversed at the LH, but then the question that arises is how to take into account the fact that we were shorting at the MP of the TC. In RT trading I have identified that this kind of behavior means chop, and perhaps this short was not an option. 3. We were approaching the TIF R at 94 and there was also a SL from premarket that halted buyers advance. The fact that we were in the chop is something to consider because the attempt to reject R at .90 could have triggered an entry on the short side. The fact was that prices fell to the bottom of the small TR and bounced rapidly to break R. 4. A small RET gave the entry here as I officially had a HL around R. 5. After another Ret came the next entry (In case I had been stopped for trailing the stop 1 tick below the LSL). From there one, there were no more entries as we were getting far away from S. 6. After getting into overbought territory again a strong downswing came and there was a break of DL and the LSL, no LH just yet.This was also the point at which the rise hit the MP of the Downtrending Channel from the 60 min chart. 7. The LH appeared the break of LSL marked the short entry. 7.a. There was no particular activity that i detected at the break below S at 94, that justified an entry, but if I was not short from 7 this would have been a sad lost opportunity as this was in my TIF plan just did not have a Setup. 8.Prices stopped the decline at 93.08, don't have any particular explanation for this other than bottom of a smal congestion area from premarket. 9 . Prices rose fast, breaking the SLs and after crossing the 93.4 R area found supply. After the short failed, I defined this as a TR and stopped activating entries based on the setup until buyers or sellers defined who would control the market. 10. A break above the top of the inner TR and a small RET (HL) gave the entry here. It did not go far. 11. A short entry marked the beginning of another TR. Perhaps this trade should not have been taken in RT. 12. This was a long after the break of a small TR, but too close to the R defined in 11 13. finally R at 93.7 held, no trade was taken as I thought this was chop. Finally prices broke below the bottom of the TR and S at 93.4, then a RET gave the LH needed to take the short. 14. Another short, taken as a reentry as the short in 13 would have possibly be exited after the stop was hit.
-
Before the open, the market had been falling for several days, and was hitting the bottom of a TR from oct 2011, prices were also describing a strong upswing after being oversold. By the opening. Prices had bounced strongly and where back within the TC, marking a HL and a break of the closest SL. My principal level of interest was the MP of the TR which coincided with the SL at 94 and the top of the range which also coincided with the SH at 96. As for things to do: Buy a break of the MP 93.96 Short a REV around the MP If prices fail to reach the MP then wait for a test of S at the bottom of the TR for buying a HL. Short a BO of the TR below S at 92.
-
Given the fact that I have a log in which I post what I do during trading hours, I thought that I should also post my backtesting charts, in case someone has something to say about the analysis I am using and perhaps provide some insights that I might be missing. For any visitor it would be like reading my log in fast forward, as I can backtest far more trading days that those I can follow in RT. NOTE: THIS IS ALL HINDSIGHT, BUT I TRY TO IDENTIFY POSSIBLE SETUPS THIS WAY.
-
Are there any hidden clues in the volume of the above charts (except Gold) I am missing. I am just way to green for volume yet.
-
An update in the EOD analysis, given what was discussed today in the chat, I will do this every day after the market closes to get a glimpse of the forest before I enter to look for trees. CL After going into oversold territory prices are back within the TC (trend channel), actually at the MP of the TC after breaking back above the Top of the TR at 91. This last upswing has not been completed yet and would require a LH and a break of DL and of the LSL in the intraday (in a big interval like 30 to 60 min) to define a short for the long run. Besides even if the conditions are met, we are still inside a hinge so will have to pay attention to the S level at 89, 88 and 86. NQ After a failed attempt to cross below the bottom of the TC and S at 2700, buyers retook control of the market, marked a HL and pushed even harder out of the hinge. Now prices are at the MP of the channel and the MP of the aug-sep TR. If prices break 813, buyers might be motivated to take prices towards 867, if 813 keeps on holding then sellers will try to test 759. GC (Ninja GC chart sucks, so I am using as a substitute Spot gold from IBFX) After buyers managed to take prices back from the oversold area and above the S level at 553, the market is currently congested within the boundaries of the june 2012 TR, but still within the downtrend TC, the MP of that TR, the MP of the TC and even the closest SL. So the context is still bearish. But the fact that buyers have managed to hold prices above 553 is a reason of concern, because in any moment they could break the current hinge to the Upside trying to make a move towards the MP of the larger interval TR (Green rectangle). An upmove could find R at the MP of the small june TR and later at the top of the TR, by that time we would possibly also be around the top of the TC, so will have to wait and see. If SL is broken, and another HL is set, perhaps a buy could work, but the profit potential would be limited given the fact that we would still be within a TC. Now, if sellers manage to push below 553, prices could fall to 530. A break below 30 would take us to less populated areas and therefore some trending opportunities.
-
An update in the EOD analysis, given what was discussed today in the chat, I will do this every day after the market closes to get a glimpse of the forest before I enter to look for trees. CL After going into oversold territory prices are back within the TC (trend channel), actually at the MP of the TC after breaking back above the Top of the TR at 91. This last upswing has not been completed yet and would require a LH and a break of DL and of the LSL in the intraday (in a big interval like 30 to 60 min) to define a short for the long run. Besides even if the conditions are met, we are still inside a hinge so will have to pay attention to the S level at 89, 88 and 86. NQ After a failed attempt to cross below the bottom of the TC and S at 2700, buyers retook control of the market, marked a HL and pushed even harder out of the hinge. Now prices are at the MP of the channel and the MP of the aug-sep TR. If prices break 813, buyers might be motivated to take prices towards 867, if 813 keeps on holding then sellers will try to test 759. GC (Ninja GC chart sucks, so I am using as a substitute Spot gold from IBFX) After buyers managed to take prices back from the oversold area and above the S level at 553, the market is currently congested within the boundaries of the june 2012 TR, but still within the downtrend TC, the MP of that TR, the MP of the TC and even the closest SL. So the context is still bearish. But the fact that buyers have managed to hold prices above 553 is a reason of concern, because in any moment they could break the current hinge to the Upside trying to make a move towards the MP of the larger interval TR (Green rectangle). An upmove could find R at the MP of the small june TR and later at the top of the TR, by that time we would possibly also be around the top of the TC, so will have to wait and see. If SL is broken, and another HL is set, perhaps a buy could work, but the profit potential would be limited given the fact that we would still be within a TC. Now, if sellers manage to push below 553, prices could fall to 530. A break below 30 would take us to less populated areas and therefore some trending opportunities.
-
Here is the record of today´s action. Two interesting things for future reference: 1st. I did not take the entry around 8:40 out of a policy of not taking trades outside of the open outcry trading hours, so perhaps I have to add some extra time into my analysis. 2nd. I took the longs at 1 and 3, but the fact that we were still in a downtrend could be a circumstance to take into consideration for the improvement of my system. Given what Db said about the character of the market during a trend and its differences with the TRs. As always context is paramount and have to add it into my trading, sooner rather than later. Net results for the day 6 Ticks per contract (Including slippage and commissions) The log is here:
-
Woke up at the same time than friday, therefore late for today :doh: Only had time to make the TIF analysis on oil, for gold must be here earlier. Buyers had just managed to break above the top of the most recent TR and are in the process of testing it as S. The recent downtrend has ended but we are still within a larger downmove and within a huge hinge so chop can be expected. If support within the 60-70 area holds and buyers manage to hold the lows or even mark a HL it would be a chance to join the ride in a RET. If sellers manage to take prices below S and hold the highs or make a lower one then shorting the REV would be the way to go.
-
Great site, simple yet challenging for someone testing a system.
-
I think it was in the AMT thread, I am not sure, I made a small word compilation of everything I thougth could be of use for future reference, but I dont recall exactly where i got it.
-
Given the recent discussion here and in the WF i decided to review my process in the light of what must be done and I found some older Db posts that I think I have to re-read and take into account in order to keep focus on what is important within the W approach. I will paste it here, because I do not want to forget it. I reiterate this is all DB's wisdom and the full text of these post is available in the WF, i just had it pasted in an old word document I had and thought it would be a good idea to share it here.
-
Now I get the aversion towards Oil and what you said about Gold in the chat . Regarding NQ what do you consider a relevant TR ( in terms of distance from Top to Bottom) to bother to trade it ( perhaps this is the wrong question)? I ask this because when I am performing the TIF analysis I usually find so many small TRs that I end up with line after line of levels as you have noted several times. I have managed to reduce this a LITTLE, but still foccusing in the trees. Anyway, thank you for the charts. Very illustrating.
-
Why dont you use your computer recorder, now, i tried it but never have the time to listen to 3 hours of recoding anyway :doh:. I use the windows notepad to write ideas during the day as it does not require as much screen space as word.
-
I guess this is a question I thougth about asking some months ago when I was so overwhelmed by backtesting, just never came up with a way to write it down in a coherent way. I think is great you bring this matter into discussion because I think everyone who is currently in the process of defining a setup is wondering what is it tha one is supposed to look for after a fair share of screen time (although fair share is never enough as the learning process is relentless and never ends). In my case as can be seen in my log, i ended up looking for patterns of change in trend and I ended up with the setup I am testing and upon which I am currently writing some rules to take advantage of the intial findings. Perhaps I will hit a wall or perhaps not, only time will tell. In my case, the main problem I have faced is not to go back to automatization, as once I define a setup with such a level of specificity, I start seeing reasons to trade it, even in the chop and that has proven to be a bad idea. So i guess I will have to keep working on that. I think your approach is interesting, as I understand it you first define the context and the look for trades within the boundaries of such context. I kinda tried to do that at first, but i found that the amount of trades that could fail if i was not specific would be high. Perhaps it is just my mind playing tricks and making me leave good trades before they start yielding profits. Anyhow, the road is still a long one in order to increase the return to risk ratio to an acceptable level.
-
From now on the link to the chat will be available in my log thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/traders-log/15871-niko-s-log.html
-
Interesting, you are giving me many ideas for my analysis. When analyzing the NQ i used a 30 tick chart to be able to see the whole day in a single screen, if the day is slow 20 tick will do.
-
Blocp, thanks. I have done that, perhaps need to keep on doing it. This pattern is something I found useful in back testing and that I am forward testing in RT and in market replay, I am only posting the RT results. I know that eventually i will have to define when to trade the pattern (definitely not in the chop) and add more patterns in the back testing-forward testing process. I would also need to define if I am going to surf for crums or focus on the bigger picture, something that DB said in the chat today made me think about that. I started posting this for two reasons, add more discipline to the process and get feedback from other traders who might be finding the same issues in their trading. I still have a long way to go, and thank you for your advise and for reading my posts.