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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Prices managed to break above the TR that was containing them yesterday and are currently making HHs on a daily basis. We are back in the TC and the trend seems ok, as we have not reached the tpo of the TR. Next expected level of R is around 94 (Damn Db´s magic hat). We are currently in the price area of a TR from the beginning of Jan between 93 and 95.5, and within it there is another area of congestion between 94 and 95.1. As for things to do, the LOLR is up so longs would be the thing to do, but the entry here was yesterday so if I want to do something I would have to wait for a pullback to Support. No shorts so far. No gold analysis today.
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From a TA perspective, it does not quite looks like a bubble, is kind of in the chop.
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Where are you trying to get with your argument? Are you sugesting one must use different time intervals to identify different trends. I am sorry I just dont get your point.
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No trades taken today using the automatic setup. Was into getting the flow of the market, before I end up with an algorithm :haha: again. Anyway, here are the places where entries would have been activated using the setup, if exited on the break of last swing, the result would have been 12 ticks. And what if.... I do what I plan on the TIF???
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TR= Trading Range. And I can assure you that Wykcoff will make you a better trader or kill you while trying :haha:
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CL So far we are bouncing from R around 93, looks like the longer term downtrend is kicking in as buyers were unable to reach a HH yest. We are also at the bottom of the ascending TC and a break below PDL would confirm the break of the DL. If sellers manage to take prices below 90.90 then all yest buyers will become potential sellers and their help could take us within the previous TR between (91.70-90.90) If buyers defend their positions and make a HL then we would be in the chop, and the congestion area will widen between 90.90 and 93.50. That would also mean a new attempt to break the Longer term supply line and a push inside the TC. GC After failing to reach the top of the TC buyers lost control and sellers started to push with strength inside the previous TR, although some support was provided at the top, it was insignificant to stop sellers advance. Now, the entry would have been around 86 but I was not there, now wait for a RET towards the top of the TR and catch a REV or wait for prices to hit the bottom and see if a BO is next or a REV to the upside.
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After failing to reach the top of the TC buyers lost control and sellers started to push with strength inside the previous TR, although some support was provided at the top, it was insignificant to stop sellers advance. Now, the entry would have been around 86 but I was not there, now wait for a RET towards the top of the TR and catch a REV or wait for prices to hit the bottom and see if a BO is next or a REV to the upside.
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So far we are bouncing from R around 93, looks like the longer term downtrend is kicking in as buyers were unable to reach a HH yest. We are also at the bottom of the ascending TC and a break below PDL would confirm the break of the DL. If sellers manage to take prices below 90.90 then all yest buyers will become potential sellers and their help could take us within the previous TR between (91.70-90.90) If buyers defend their positions and make a HL then we would be in the chop, and the congestion area will widen between 90.90 and 93.50. That would also mean a new attempt to break the Longer term supply line and a push inside the TC.
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Seeker, You have to study the course and test it yourself, it is goint to take a while, but it will eventualy help you understand how the market operates.
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Great quote for encouraging the newcomers. I always loved this one: "... what the stock market will do?: It will fluctuate" JP Morgan. I guess markets are the same people from 100 years ago, just different clothes and hairstyles.
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CL The market was very choppy in the morning and buyers could not advance any further, we are currently stuck around the top of the TC and still below the MP of the last downswing. So we are still in sellers territory. Today´s action could have been the opportunity to take the short around 93 It even gave an entry in intraday. If sellers continue pushing lower we could see prices making a move towards 91 where S will possibly be waiting and at that same level we would possibly have to deal with the hurdle of breaking below the DL of the hinge. Quite a mouthful :haha: GC After a strong BO yesterday, buyers stalled around the MP of Jun TR, after buyers gave up, sellers took the chance and started pushing lower, now sellers are going to possibly try to take prices below 1585, If they succeed prices could get back in the chop below the MP perhaps with sellers in control trying to reach S at 1534. This could also turn out to be a RET in which case, "get ready bulls", because this can be your chance. NQ We are still in the chop, waiting for a BO. The LOLR is pointing up so a break above the MP of the current TR zone could come in the following days. If the DL does not hold and prices start to fall S will posibly be found around 760. But if 760 is broken we will have plenty of reasons for a short as DL, TC and S would be gone, perhaps a LH would also be good in order to reduce information risk .
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Interesting thread, is Thales still around?
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No, but I will. Thank you
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An alternate view of today´s trading. Buy the BOs Sell the REVs Sit on my hands until relevant levels are reached: MP Bottom of the TR Break of trend line.
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Db talked about the behavior of Oil outside of my trading hours 9:00 to 12:00. Guess today was not the exception.
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Trades for the day: Log Some comments: 1. Avoid taking the long in the Chop wait for a BO. Would have been a good trade. 2. Shorted, but prices were not moving as fast as I would like them to, in the tick I could see the congestion clearly, a 10 tick TR and I sold right outside it. I guess as some other members have stated i have to start to take time into account and define a rule for the times at which the market does not move as i expect it soon enough 3. Took the long, prices started to move up slowly, but then they finally made a move to the upside. Found R at 40 where sellers pushed hard towards S at 18 4. Shorted the RET to R at 18. Market just stopped moving after my entry guess is the fact that price was at the top of the opening TR can be of importance for future reference.Prices finally broke the LSH and I was taken out 5. As I was in the chop I waited for a break of the LSH and a HL and also a break of the top of the TR. All of them happened, but then I was too far from the LSL (15 ticks), I guess this trade must have been passed on because of the risk involved (i try not to lose more than 10 ticks per trade) 6.Back in the middle of the chop. 7. This was definitely a mistake, because there was no setup to trade here just took the short, because I thought the TR was broken and that did not happen. This is unacceptable. :crap: 8. This was a reasonable entry within the TR as it was at the bottom near S, the thing I have to work on here is the exit as the Break of LSL is way to much I was still in the Chop. Or perhaps just avoid this trades and focus on BOs and RET after the BOs of these micro TRs. 9. This kind of behavior is characteristic of the chop. I get an opposite setup on top of the previous one. 10. Just the same as in 9. 11. The same as 9 and 10. 12. This was the BO trade and it had the LH and the Break of LSL so I took it, I am using the bottom of the TR as the DL here. Well that was the day, kinda sucked! But that is the point of this exercise. Finding out what sucks and what works in RT. So far I have found that the chop is a party pooper, but... I have not devised a way to stay away from it, thinking in possible solutions but still nothing concrete.
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After finding R around 98, sellers have managed to push prices towards the bottom of the TR overnigth, buyers defended the trend but were unable to make a HL, right now we are in the middle of a TR (not visible in the posted chart) that could break either way. If it breaks up it will validate the trend if it breaks down it will break the DL of the TC but S will be waiting at 86 so a short is only an option if prices get back inside the TR from the beginning of the month. If prices hold and mark a HL then a buy would be the way to go.
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Yesterday I did not have time to post the aftermarket analysis and that is something I have to work on. As for TIF here it goes: We are back inside the TC after yesterday´s rally sellers managed to hold buyers advance below the R level at 93.5 and pushed towards the MP of the TC and the S level around 92.6. At this level buyers started pushing but could not make a HH, sellers pushed down once again but this morning lost control of the market at the MP of the C once again, showing that the trend still is in place, even managed to break above the LSH and the hinge that formed during the last 2 days. At the open we are near R at 93 where buyers stalled. Plan: If price rises above 93.18 buy, if sellers manage to hold R at this level, then sell. If prices stay below 93, that would take us back inside the hinge so would not short unless DL is broken that would also coincide with the MP of the TC. Anyway must be extra careful as a short within the up-trending channel is a trade taken against the LOLR. Remember that Crude Oil Inventories come at 10:30 so before that we could be in the chop.
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Welcome :cheers: in TL tou will learn more than enough to become a good trader.
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I believe any method would work, the difference is really in the trader. A bad trader can lose a lot of money with a good proven method.
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Write to the support desk, they are extremely efficient.
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I guess he means going long at the bottom of the TC. But I could be wrong
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EOD: CL Prices skyrocketed today towards the top of the RC and the MP of the oct TR. If sellers manage to halt the advance around 93 then we might get a RET intraday and there we will know if we are going to go back to 91 for a test of S. If 93 is taken out, then will also be the SL and that would mean possible continuation of the up move towards the top of the channel at 95. NQ We are still within the chop, it looks like sellers are trying to push down but we are still within the TC (below the MP) and above the SL and the bottom of the TC, so short would not be an alternative for me so far. At least not until S at 759 is taken out. If that does not happen and prices find S at the bottom of the TC that could be an opportunity to reenter the trend. GC After coming back inside the TC, prices found S at a LH and finally exited the chop from previous days this morning. We are currently within the boundaries of a TR from Jun, so we will have to be careful not to get excited as we might end up in the chop . If prices manage to hold above the MP (592) then 630 would be the next target here.
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EOD: CL Prices skyrocketed today towards the top of the RC and the MP of the oct TR. If sellers manage to halt the advance around 93 then we might get a RET intraday and there we will know if we are going to go back to 91 for a test of S. If 93 is taken out, then will also be the SL and that would mean possible continuation of the up move towards the top of the channel at 95. NQ We are still within the chop, it looks like sellers are trying to push down but we are still within the TC (below the MP) and above the SL and the bottom of the TC, so short would not be an alternative for me so far. At least not until S at 759 is taken out. If that does not happen and prices find S at the bottom of the TC that could be an opportunity to reenter the trend. GC After coming back inside the TC, prices found S at a LH and finally exited the chop from previous days this morning. We are currently within the boundaries of a TR from Jun, so we will have to be careful not to get excited as we might end up in the chop . If prices manage to hold above the MP (592) then 630 would be the next target here.
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Trades for the day. Will post analysis later. In a hurry! And the Log: