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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Will look into that. Thanks.
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CL Yesterday we finally broke above the SL and today the RET bounced on S at the Top of the TR where it was expected. Now we are nearing the PDH and back in the TC so the odds favor a long. Perhaps a break above PDH could invite a following to this up move, now it is importan to note that PDH is also the MP of the last downswing, and that means we are at an area of strong potential R, if taken out then we would get a nice upside potential towards the top of the TC. It is also interesting to note that last time prices traveled through these lands, there was a strong sell off and not much congestion, this could happen again to the upside, lets wait an see. As for things to do, buy a RET after the break of PDH. Sell a BO failure of PDH. Beware of the chop, after a strong trend day as yest one could expect such a thing to happen. P.S. Today is rollover day, so the precise levels will change, although the overall analysis stays the same. NQ After yest strong rally we are back within the TR, buyers actually found R at the MP of the TR, and after sellers managed to push for a LH, buyers defended S at the bottom so we are essentially in a choppy predicament as of now, a long at the bottom of the TR would have been the thing to do, if prices make it there and buyers hold, then take a long but i do not think that is going to happen . If buyers break above the MP I will do nothing, as I do not like the activity around the MPs, If prices reach R at the top short a REV of buy a RET after the BO.
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NQ: After yesterday´s strong reversal at the opening, prices are back in the small TR they were last week. It is interesting in HS to note that prices not only bounced at the MP of the last rally but also at the bottom of the TC and at the bottom of the Sep-Nov TR. This tells me that I have to take this sort of stuff into consideration when daytrading.:doh: As for things to do, if one is not in already, and by in i mean long. I would wait for a break above the Sep Oct TR MP around 2813 in order to establish a long. No shorts for now. CL: Just when I thought we were going back inside the TC, BAM! a reversal fueled a strong rally yest morning, no we are out of the TC and rising above the MP of the Sep-Oct TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, so we must me carefull as we could find R around 94. If that is surpassed then the way to go could be to take a long in a pullback to the bottom of the TC. No shorts for now. GC Short term, we are still in the uptrending TC of the last REV that started some weeks ago, after the BO from the base and the subsequent RET, buyers have been trying to make new highs, but they lost momentum at the top of the TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, and this rally could go belly up in any moment. Perhaps we are experiencing a small pullback, in which case a new long at the bottom of the TC could be advisable if it holds at the test, if the TC holds then buyers could try to get to the top of the TR from May-Jun around 1630. Anyway, does not look as an easy ride as we are fighting against the longer term downtrend.
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After yest strong rally we are back within the TR, buyers actually found R at the MP of the TR, and after sellers managed to push for a LH, buyers defended S at the bottom so we are essentially in a choppy predicament as of now, a long at the bottom of the TR would have been the thing to do, if prices make it there and buyers hold, then take a long but i do not think that is going to happen . If buyers break above the MP I will do nothing, as I do not like the activity around the MPs, If prices reach R at the top short a REV of buy a RET after the BO. P.S, I am using CFD data as Ninja charts are broken today...:crap:
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Yesterday we finally broke above the SL and today the RET bounced on S at the Top of the TR where it was expected. Now we are nearing the PDH and back in the TC so the odds favor a long. Perhaps a break above PDH could invite a following to this up move, now it is importan to note that PDH is also the MP of the last downswing, and that means we are at an area of strong potential R, if taken out then we would get a nice upside potential towards the top of the TC. It is also interesting to note that last time prices traveled through these lands, there was a strong sell off and not much congestion, this could happen again to the upside, lets wait an see. As for things to do, buy a RET after the break of PDH. Sell a BO failure of PDH. Beware of the chop, after a strong trend day as yest one could expect such a thing to happen. P.S. Today is rollover day, so the precise levels will change, although the overall analysis stays the same.
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There is something wrong with NT daily charts, if anyone had the same problem and knows how to fix it please share. The problem I have is that i do not get the full session information when I select daily, I guess it just lets me see the 9:30 to 4:00 info. NQ: After yesterday´s strong reversal at the opening, prices are back in the small TR they were last week. It is interesting in HS to note that prices not only bounced at the MP of the last rally but also at the bottom of the TC and at the bottom of the Sep-Nov TR. This tells me that I have to take this sort of stuff into consideration when daytrading.:doh: As for things to do, if one is not in already, and by in i mean long. I would wait for a break above the Sep Oct TR MP around 2813 in order to establish a long. No shorts for now. CL: Just when I thought we were going back inside the TC, BAM! a reversal fueled a strong rally yest morning, no we are out of the TC and rising above the MP of the Sep-Oct TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, so we must me carefull as we could find R around 94. If that is surpassed then the way to go could be to take a long in a pullback to the bottom of the TC. No shorts for now. GC Short term, we are still in the uptrending TC of the last REV that started some weeks ago, after the BO from the base and the subsequent RET, buyers have been trying to make new highs, but they lost momentum at the top of the TR. We are still below the MP of the last downswing, and this rally could go belly up in any moment. Perhaps we are experiencing a small pullback, in which case a new long at the bottom of the TC could be advisable if it holds at the test, if the TC holds then buyers could try to get to the top of the TR from May-Jun around 1630. Anyway, does not look as an easy ride as we are fighting against the longer term downtrend.
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LOLR: line of least resistance.
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Db, I think I understand where the LOLR confusion came this morning, thank you for pointing it out.
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This analysis is based on what was written, but it is all CSW. NQ CSW
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I will replace the GC TIF analysis for the NQ one, as I will be following it on intraday. Oil: After buyers were unable to hreak above the downtrend line from the begining of Feb and exiting the bottom of the uptrending channel prices found S around 92 at the bottom of the current TR. So for now we are within the TR and must trade accordingly. REVs: if 92 is tested and holds then a buy would be the thing to do. No trades around the MP so no pullback trading. If prices reach 93.5 and buyers stall, sell a REV at a test of R (I dont thing buyers will make it though. If sellers push below 92.15 short a RET after the BO. NQ After sellers failed to breach the top of Jan TR, buyers pushed hard making an almost V Rev and are currently at the MP of Feb TR, if prices hold above the MP then a test of the Top at 780 could be something to look for in order to find an opp to short a REV, but given the weakness shown during the weekend prices could found R before the top, so will have to be in the lookout. Perhaps 770 could be important but I am not sure (Anyone?). If prices start falling again below or at the MP if the downswing it will be a sign of weakness and we will also have a LH to trace a SL, will have to wait and see. If prices fall but fail to breach 750 buy a REV at the test of S would be the way to go.
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Besides waking up earlier I will also be paying more attention to NQ in intraday, the main purpose here is going to be to be able to ride a trend as long as possible during the day, following the plan defined in the TIF analysis. I will still be following oil, gold and nq eod. So I will start with the EOD analysis. Oil: So far it looks like buyers are giving up as prices are returning from overbought territory and the MP of the last downswing held. We are still within a huge hinge so no large trends are expected to come out of this until we do not see a BO. The LOLR is still down, if prices keep on falling some S could be expected around 91 and if the channel top is breached then 88 should be interesting. Gold After a RET buyers manage to push above the MP of the May-Jul TR and are currently holding prices above it after a pullback overnight, if they manage to break above the LSH at 620 then 630 is the next point of interest. NQ: We finally breached the bottom of the congestion we were trapped in during last week, we also broke the DL and are currently in oversold territories. Some S could be provided by the shorts at the top of the Jan TR, but if they are unable to hold sellers above 759 then we would be out of the channel and sellers would possibly look for S around 700-80. So far looks like tupapa short was the way to go :cheers:
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Besides waking up earlier I will also be paying more attention to NQ in intraday, the main purpose here is going to be to be able to ride a trend as long as possible during the day, following the plan defined in the TIF analysis. I will still be following oil, gold and nq eod. So I will start with the EOD analysis. Oil: So far it looks like buyers are giving up as prices are returning from overbought territory and the MP of the last downswing held. We are still within a huge hinge so no large trends are expected to come out of this until we do not see a BO. The LOLR is still down, if prices keep on falling some S could be expected around 91 and if the channel top is breached then 88 should be interesting. Gold After a RET buyers manage to push above the MP of the May-Jul TR and are currently holding prices above it after a pullback overnight, if they manage to break above the LSH at 620 then 630 is the next point of interest. NQ: We finally breached the bottom of the congestion we were trapped in during last week, we also broke the DL and are currently in oversold territories. Some S could be provided by the shorts at the top of the Jan TR, but if they are unable to hold sellers above 759 then we would be out of the channel and sellers would possibly look for S around 700-80. So far looks like tupapa short was the way to go :cheers:
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I was actually refering to EOD, but you are right. Now, I dont quite understand yet why oil is such a sub par instrument intraday,(low IQ i guess) but given the fact that you are lightyears away from me and i am only a cub in trading experience terms, i guess i will stop swimming against the current and go back to trade nq, intraday. Thanks for everything, see you tomorrow in the chat.
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Finding a method that works is not going to be easy, as that requires backtesting a lot tof backtesting. If you are not profitable, you will need at least a year of hard work to get something going, and that means lots of hours whitout making a trade, even then you will have to start small, or else you will risk losing money when your mind gets in the way of your system. You will find several different approaches here in TL if you are still interested. DO NOT TRY SHORTCUTS, YOU WILL ONLY LOSE MONEY, PERIOD.
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A-ha! Very illustrative. Thanks G.
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If you are a newbie, the least of your problems is leverage. In fact too much leverage is one of the reasons why most newbies lose everything in a few months if not days. If you are not a newbie and dont like IB just change brokers, or trade futures where you can get 100 to one leverage or more, but again.... That is dangerous.
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Sure, as i said this is TA based, so i am not discussing chinese PMI or GDP, as I do not really follow that. From what can be seen, during the last few years, the market has been in a trading range, a contracting one (hinge, triangle). What that tell me is that traders are somewhat in accord about the value in the market, perhaps long ter accumulation or distribution, we will have to wait to know for sure. If one looks at bubbles charts (nasdaq in 1999, s&p in 2007, trasuries now, or the tulips back in the day) one sees a strong up trend, one that keeps getting momentum as more suckers are pouring money into the market at even higher prices, that is not what i see in the chart. Perhaps europe collapses, the us goes bankrupt and china has to make a living without trading partners, so the breakout could be to the downside, or perhaps everything goes back to business as usual and a new technologic breakthrough gives the us the opportunity to grow at double digit rates in which case the break could be to the upside, we dont know , and perhaps i am being a little extreme. The fact is that i do not see the signs of a bubble in the chart, but as always in the markets i could be wrong!:doh:
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I know old post dont get read as much as the new ones, i was lurking around and found this one, tha i think is going to get a few ahas from those in backtesting status http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/wyckoff-forum/5097-trading-wyckoff-way-62.html#post70827
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This is a very important concept for taking into account when backtesting.
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CL We are breaking above the top of the TC, but near the MP of the last downswing, did not realize that in intraday today, I was wondering where R came from and voila!! here it is. Gotta pay more attention to context. Next week we could experience selling, perhaps even motivated by the inability of buyers to break above the MP, that inability was seen today from the open. If prices start their trip to S at 91, they will eventully get back to the TC. If prices break below the MP of oct a short would be the thing to do. Now, a long is risky at this levels as we are overbougth, so in order to enter in that direction a HL would be required. GC After breaking above R at 85, buyers have not been able to get a following and now they are stuck at the MP of the Jun-Jul TR. If buyers manage to reach new highs, one could expect their attempt to reach the top of the TC. if one is still long, the botom of the RET could be used as a stop, but not see any reason to initiate a position below the LSH around 600. NQ We are still within the TR, DL holding and still within the uptrending Channel. Nothing to do so far.
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CL We are breaking above the top of the TC, but near the MP of the last downswing, did not realize that in intraday today, I was wondering where R came from and voila!! here it is. Gotta pay more attention to context. Next week we could experience selling, perhaps even motivated by the inability of buyers to break above the MP, that inability was seen today from the open. If prices start their trip to S at 91, they will eventully get back to the TC. If prices break below the MP of oct a short would be the thing to do. Now, a long is risky at this levels as we are overbougth, so in order to enter in that direction a HL would be required. GC After breaking above R at 85, buyers have not been able to get a following and now they are stuck at the MP of the Jun-Jul TR. If buyers manage to reach new highs, one could expect their attempt to reach the top of the TC. if one is still long, the botom of the RET could be used as a stop, but not see any reason to initiate a position below the LSH around 600. NQ We are still within the TR, DL holding and still within the uptrending Channel. Nothing to do so far.
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My experience with second best entries has not been always that good, you need good trends for them to work well.
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Welcome, I hope you learn a lot from this site.
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Week´s recount for the surfing setup: Gotta keep on testing :missy: I will define the TIF setup in order to be able to test it next week.
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Today´s largest swing was to the downside, but as I had stated in my TIF plan the LOLR was pointing upwards, so I decided only to take the longs. As I really did not get any solid S until the top of the previous TR was reached around 18, the result of trying to catch a bottom away from a S was catastrophic, so I will have to define how to sharpen my bottom catcher skills. And that is more backtesting I guess. As for the automatic setup... Did better than me today :haha: