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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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I am going to take a step back and do this part properly with what i think i have, i will test it on oil, as i feel more comfortable on it. Thanks for all the help.
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I was really clueless about yesterday's market action. Thanks for the postmarket analysis.
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CL
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CL After a strong downmove yesterday prices finally found S at march 19 high, that coincided with an older TR Bottom. We are currently within a congestion that can either break above or below, so we will have to wait and see. Things to do: Short a BO to the downside or go long at a REV to the upside. NQ Yesterday was a decisive day for the trend as several things happened: 1) a LH, 2) piercing of DL and 3)Break of the major LSL. Now we are at the MP of the last downswing and yest MP where we will have to watch for R. Things to do Short a REV at the yest MP Go long at a RET after the break of the 50% level.
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CL After buyers failed to break above the MP of Jan-Feb TR sellers came in strong to take prices back inside the TC, we are still in an uptrend and the MP of the last upswing still holds. Buy: Upside REV at S with a shoestring stop. Short: No NQ After a strong REV from R at 820 prices found S at 780. As prices are still within the TC the trend remains up but buying pressure has been fading for the last 3 months, so cautious bullishness is the way to go. Buy: REV at S with stop at PDL. Short: No
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CL After buyers failed to break above the MP of Jan-Feb TR sellers came in strong to take prices back inside the TC, we are still in an uptrend and the MP of the last upswing still holds. Buy: Upside REV at S with a shoestring stop. Short: No NQ After a strong REV from R at 820 prices found S at 780. As prices are still within the TC the trend remains up but buying pressure has been fading for the last 3 months, so cautious bullishness is the way to go. Buy: REV at S with stop at PDL. Short: No
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The problem with a low IQ is that it takes time connecting the dots :crap:. I finally understood the thing about finding s/r on the go. Thanks.
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Dont Give Up, Just stop using real money until you learn.
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Db, Regarding S/R levels for TIF, I think I see you are using previous swings to define levels, I often ignore the swing highs or lows and focus on the TRs. I guess is because you are referring to levels that formed during the trend or perhaps I got it all wrong. Nice aftermarket analysis, the question I made to mayself around 12:00 today was why bother closing any of the short trades until noon if the TL was never really broken.
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CL NQ
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CL We are currently within a TR above the top of the previous weeks TC. So far sellers have been able to withhold buyers advance and the LH from yesterday´s afternoon is a new sign of weakness. Plan: Buy a REV at the bottom of the TR, sell a RET after the BO of the bottom of the TR. Buy a REV at the MP of the TR. Short a REV at the Top of the TR, buy a RET after the BO at the top of the TR. NQ After a failed attempt to break above PDH the market made a RET towards the MP of the last upswing. The fact that sellers could not get below the 50% mark and inside the TR area is a sign of strength in a market in which the LOLR still up. Plan: Buy a break of PDH Buy a REV at PD MP Buy a REV at PDL Short a REV a PDH Short a Break below PDL
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CL After a LH Yesterday prices are at the top of the TC and near S at 96. The LOLR is still up, but the trend can stall at any moment. Longs: Too late Shorts: Not yet NQ After redefining Aug-Sept TR I found that the top of that TR coincides with the R level we have been hitting in the last few weeks. And is precisely the level we are at today. The LOLR is still up as we are within the TC and below the MP. Longs:Buy a breakout of PDH Short: Not yet
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CL We are currently within a TR above the top of the previous weeks TC. So far sellers have been able to withhold buyers advance and the LH from yesterday´s afternoon is a new sign of weakness. Plan: Buy a REV at the bottom of the TR, sell a RET after the BO of the bottom of the TR. Buy a REV at the MP of the TR. Short a REV at the Top of the TR, buy a RET after the BO at the top of the TR. NQ After a failed attempt to break above PDH the market made a RET towards the MP of the last upswing. The fact that sellers could not get below the 50% mark and inside the TR area is a sign of strength in a market in which the LOLR still up. Plan: Buy a break of PDH Buy a REV at PD MP Buy a REV at PDL Short a REV a PDH Short a Break below PDL
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CL After a LH Yesterday prices are at the top of the TC and near S at 96. The LOLR is still up, but the trend can stall at any moment. Longs: Too late Shorts: Not yet NQ After redefining Aug-Sept TR I found that the top of that TR coincides with the R level we have been hitting in the last few weeks. And is precisely the level we are at today. The LOLR is still up as we are within the TC and below the MP. Longs:Buy a breakout of PDH Short: Not yet
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Great stuff. Hope to see you in the chat again.
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CL A strong recovery came after S was found around SH of march 26th, the HL above the MP of the last swing was a sign of strength, but the lack of FT above PDH is something to watch from now to the open. We could be at the beginning of a new uptrend leg if PDH is broken and the HL holds or we could be entering the chop longer term in which case we would deal with and inside day. After the break below the DL looks like the LOLR is still up, but given the fact that we are overbought, R can come around these levels easily starting with the MP of the TR at 97.6. Things to do: If PDH holds, short a LH in a smaller interval, if PDH is broken take the first RET. NQ Buyers stalled around the premarket high yest and a strong sell off came after the PMI data, although the W trader would have taken the long at the REV from R before the data was released (see Dbs post). After the strong down move buyers provided S as expected at the bottom of the TR and around the TL. At the time of this post we are at the Top of the TR where buyers have appeared to be stalling after a strong recovery during the morning. We will have to sit and wait for a REV around R at 807 or a continuation of the upmove above R in which case we will still have plenty of R from previous TRs and PDH. Things to do: Short a REV at R Go long on a RET at the break of PDH.
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NQ After sellers managed to take prices down yesterday we are still within the boundaries of the TR (Ninja´s historical data looks different from investing.com) and still no LL, so the uptrend still holds. Looks like the MP of the Aug-Oct TR is providing important R. If sellers manage to hold and a LH is achieved then a break of DL would be the trigger to take a short. If buyers manage to break the ascending SL from Jan it would also mark a HH and as we would still be under the MP of the TC a new long could be taken. CL After a strong down move yesterday, sellers found S at the bottom of the TR around 96. We are still overbought but the uptrend still holds and no LH is on the way so no short could be taken around these levels. As for a long we are way past that, just wait and see.
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CL A strong recovery came after S was found around SH of march 26th, the HL above the MP of the last swing was a sign of strength, but the lack of FT above PDH is something to watch from now to the open. We could be at the beginning of a new uptrend leg if PDH is broken and the HL holds or we could be entering the chop longer term in which case we would deal with and inside day. After the break below the DL looks like the LOLR is still up, but given the fact that we are overbought, R can come around these levels easily starting with the MP of the TR at 97.6. Things to do: If PDH holds, short a LH in a smaller interval, if PDH is broken take the first RET. NQ Buyers stalled around the premarket high yest and a strong sell off came after the PMI data, although the W trader would have taken the long at the REV from R before the data was released (see Dbs post). After the strong down move buyers provided S as expected at the bottom of the TR and around the TL. At the time of this post we are at the Top of the TR where buyers have appeared to be stalling after a strong recovery during the morning. We will have to sit and wait for a REV around R at 807 or a continuation of the upmove above R in which case we will still have plenty of R from previous TRs and PDH. Things to do: Short a REV at R Go long on a RET at the break of PDH.
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NQ Thanks DB, did not realize at first that although buyers have been making HLs the strength of the advance has been fading for a while. After sellers managed to take prices down yesterday we are still within the boundaries of the TR (Ninja´s historical data looks different from investing.com) and still no LL, so the uptrend still holds. Looks like the MP of the Aug-Oct TR is providing important R. If sellers manage to hold and a LH is achieved then a break of DL would be the trigger to take a short. If buyers manage to break the ascending SL from Jan it would also mark a HH and as we would still be under the MP of the TC a new long could be taken. CL After a strong down move yesterday, sellers found S at the bottom of the TR around 96. We are still overbought but the uptrend still holds and no LH is on the way so no short could be taken around these levels. As for a long we are way past that, just wait and see.
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Well, after a short unplanned vacation I am back. NQ It looks like last week was a continuation of the up trend that has been going on since December although we are stuck around the MP of Aug - Oct TR. If the MP is taken then we will continue to be within the trend and buyers will probably push towards the top of the TR around 860. If Sellers manage to provide R around the MP then they will still have a hard time breaking the trend and a break below the bottom of the TR at 760 would be required in order to change the direction of the market. CL Buyers have been pushing hard during the last few days taking prices above the TC and into overbought territory so we have to be watchful at REVs. Right now we are around the Feb TR MP and possibly heading towards that TR top. The EOD bias remains bullish, but no new positions would be taken around these levels.
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Still on vacation, thanks for the update. See you all next monday.
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CL: After yesterday´s selloff prices found S at the bottom of the TR and bounced off the DL. Now we are at yest MP as buyers are trying to push towards the top of the TR. If the MP provides R then a short at a REV could be the way to go. If prices rise above the MP wait for a REV at the top or a BO. If prices fall towards the bottom an I am in a short from the MP hold the position if there is not a > 50% pullback from the MP. If the bottom of the TR or PDL provide strong S then buy the test. NQ After finding S at the bottom of the TC and the top of a previous TR (see Db´s post), buyers pushed hard, and now are around the MP of the nearest TR pushing up towards the top around 810. If the uptrend holds and 8010 is taken out then a long after a RET is the way to go. If the top provides R then short a test.
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CL: After yesterday´s selloff prices found S at the bottom of the TR and bounced off the DL. Now we are at yest MP as buyers are trying to push towards the top of the TR. If the MP provides R then a short at a REV could be the way to go. If prices rise above the MP wait for a REV at the top or a BO. If prices fall towards the bottom an I am in a short from the MP hold the position if there is not a > 50% pullback from the MP. If the bottom of the TR or PDL provide strong S then buy the test. NQ After finding S at the bottom of the TC and the top of a previous TR (see Db´s post), buyers pushed hard, and now are around the MP of the nearest TR pushing up towards the top around 810. If the uptrend holds and 8010 is taken out then a long after a RET is the way to go. If the top provides R then short a test.
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Db, thanks for the REVs at MPs insight I was discarding them in full. You are right, i just need to get me one of these: So I CSW done this: :haha: Have fun.
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NQ: Today I learned several lessons: 1. Have to be more aware of MPs within a trend as I often ignore them and that has proven to be a costly habit. 2. Take into account REVs from TR MPs during backtesting. 3. Find a way to exit a trade that is not performing as expected once I am in, something like a timer (20 secs or something like that), so far I am waiting for price to reach my stop when I am sure that the trade is going to fail. Some comments about today's action are in the chart: CL: Two things: Wake up earlier and finish the day later :missy: