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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Daily oil notes. The uptrend still holds but prices bouncing in a hinge during the last few sessions.. Longer term we are still within the larger hinge and the SL still holds.
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DB, Is the MP of a trading channel of any relevance to you during RT trading, I have observed that when the trend is strong the MP provides some guidance, but before start testing hypothesis around this, I would like to know if it is worth the time, according to your experience. In RT daytrading? No. On a 1t chart, maybe, but it's enough with a 1m to just follow the trend. On EOD? Yes. A trend channel is after all just a trading range on the diagonal. And a rejection of the MP of the channel is just as informative as a rejection of the MP of a TR. You can see this in the NQ since December, and you don't even have to draw any lines. This strength is one of the reasons why I was not surprised by the effort to catch up with the Nasdaq and the S&P (that trade is now past 2960, BTW).
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Today´s trading. Circles and squares trades not taken
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Daily CL Notes
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Today´s action. The dots and the squares are trades I should have taken but didn´t
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After getting into overbought territory looks like an inside day or intraday chop.
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Daily CL, Still in an uptrend but finding trouble around the hinge SL.
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Some observations around Daily CL...
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Trade 6E if you like currencies that much and save yourself a lot of trouble. Besides, your "broker" is most probably a dealer.
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Fx, is not that easy. You have to define your own setups based on wyckoff principles, and then backtest them to get the answer to your questions.
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FX, if you want to trade hinges, you will first have to define them, in order to avoid the hundreds of formations that look like hinges (w/o volume I guess it is nearly impossible to do it in FX, but perhaps 6E could be a good proxy). Once you define the hinge you will have to do some backtesting, find a 100 and see what the pattern failure and success rates are. (I did that with NQ and CL and it did not look good so I abandoned the hinge trading idea) If it looks promising keep on back testing if it doesn´t perhaps that is not the road you should be traveling.
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Tupapa, what have you been doing, great seeing you around. Long time no see a sacrilegious MA in the W forum. :haha:
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Fx, the thing with triangles, is that you can find them everywhere, most of them are just noise and will fail if used as trading setups, the hinge as DB said is filled with price and the volume has an specific behavior as well. All hinges are triangles, but not all triangles are hinges.
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Seeker, You need to define a setup, based in all the things you observe from the market action. Then you need to backtest it, after that you will find the answers to the things you are asking here (Use a tighter or looser DL/SL, which bar interval to use, etc). They are also more or less answered within the threads of the W forum.
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Hi Db, why did you wait for the LL for the short, you ussually enter earlier. Was there something here that told you to wait for the confirmation at the break of S?
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Hey! What happened with the capt america cartman combo?
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:doh: did not read the labels, and assumed they were the same thing in two different intervals. But in general, after reaching the top of the channel and even after getting into overbought territories there is that gray area I still don't have very clear and it is where the new trends are born. If there is a LH but price is at or above the channel, I am still in an Uptrend, but that could be the beginning of a new profitable downtrend. Guess as everything else, it comes down to research, will add that into my to do list and find out.
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Looks like a correction is due on the daily, but there is still plenty of room to go in the weekly. Here is a question, if it goes into overbought territory on the daily and finds R around the previous top, can one trace a new LOLR as soon as a LH is defined or is it necesary that the DL of the TC gets broken ?
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I dont trade indicators anymore, i gave the inputs to a friend of mine who does i will ask him and let you know. I tested it for some days (not statisticaly significant) and it looked good. Now if there is people with coding experience here, the setup is not that hard to code, and therefore easy to backtest on computer. Long time since my last code was written so i just dont have the will to do it.
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i guess you need to define a filter for the chop.
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Gozila, have you read the wyckoff course book?.
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Unless you are planning on evaporating your 100k dont even open an account until you leqrn to trade. Meanwhile, if you just die to have the money at risk, get a capital ptotected note or fund or hire a CTA with a proven trackrecord. If you insist on trading immediately I hope you are not really attached to that money, because untill you learn something the odds are agaisnt you big time.
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Just superb.... Let me digest this first and questions will surely come up. Thanks
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Going deep into backtesting mode, so won´t be posting here for some weeks. Will be available in the TL chat during market hours.
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As always, very illustrating. I understand all of the longs, (still puzzled by the entry before the HH or LL, but i think I am getting there). The one i dont find very obvious is the second short, as we are still away from the first entry to give it some time to find support at the MP of the last up swing. Something I have noticed on oil and on nq as well. I wanted to know if there is anything clear in the price action that indicates close and reverse for that specific trade. Is it R at 752 and 750?