Niko

Although I am trying something new (scratching) in the chat, which results still suck way too much to be posted here. I am keeping the record of the entries triggered with "the drill" . Not bad for today.

Trade recount: 5 min chart 1 min chart 1. After prices exited the chop at 10:10 I waited for a test of 20 as S, when there was a strong rejection from buyers at the top of the TR i took the long at 23. But buyers failed to gain a following and prices faded prompting an exit. 2. I knew I was in the chop, but sellers had failed to make a LL so i decided to jump in at 06. As I thought 20 could be conflicting i decided to close half my trade at the first sign of danger and leave the rest open at BE. The first half was exited at 13, and the second at 7. 3. As sellers failed to get a following I decided to take the next RET in the 1 min, but it failed to break above 20 and then I closed the whole position. 4. As buyers had failed to break above 20 and the DL was broken in the 5 min I decided to take the short at 8.00, it proved to be the best decision of the day. Closed half at the break of SL in the 1 min and the other half at the first sign of REV in the 5 min, I could have stayed a little longer for the test of SL in the 5 min but I had to go. Perhaps I should stay a little longer next time

Couldn't post yesterday. In the daily today looks like we are in the RET that follows the BO of a hinge. In the 60 min we are still in a downtrend, but we are facing buyers at 107 and 7.50. Besides we are still above the up trend line from aug 21. In the 5 min we started the day in the chop, and S as appeared around 75. As always, avoid the chop, waiting for a BO of the TR that formed between 75 and 8.15.

Is inventories day, so I wont trade this market today. In the daily we seem to be forming the RET after the BO, after finding R at the MP of Feb-March TR. In the hourly we finally broke the DL after midnight and are in the process of making a LH which is bearish. In the 5 min after a strong downswing buyers were unable to break above the MP of the downmove, bearish as well. At the open sellers pushed for a LH and got what they wanted. Buyers beware

Yes it probably will, now, as I said before, oil is not really that respectful of S/R levels, it ussually overshoots so we will have to wait and see as always.

We are leaving the hinge in the daily, the break was to to upside. Pretty steep uptrend in the 60 min, but who knows how long we can stay overbought, so until REV signals show up the bias is bullish. As parabolic as they come in the 5 min, but there is an area of R around 50-60 so either sellers start pushing or lots of daily buyers will see this as a BO of the TR from July. As for things to do in the morning, wait for a REV to try to take the short at the top of the TR (Below 60) or if buyers are committed take the RET after the BO.

We are in a hinge at the daily: Overbought in the hourly Were a downtrend in the 5 min but at the open it turned into potential chop. Lets see...

Well well well, the channel actually held, support showed up at 30 and then some news (not sure what) did the trick. Now we broke the supply lines and are above the midpoint of the daily trading range. Looks like a higher low is in the making in the daily. Things might get better for the bulls, lets wait an see.

I have been in somewhat of a posting sabatical, currently performing backtesting in order to increase the time spent in each trade (ie. Avoid overtrading). I will start posting premarket analisys to keep the discipline. Oil Daily 60 min 5 min

Todays´s activity

Today´s premarket view: We are at PDH, lets see if buyers can take on sellers and push the trend upwards.

No extremes on friday, no trades. My context for today: 60 Min Just can see lots of chop, not sure we are on an uptrend there. 5 min I can see the hinge Db mentions, found R at PDH (Previous Day High) and showing some lame action on the seller side but still going down.

My view at the open: 60 min 5 min For now I will wait for the extremes.

Today´s action: 1.After finding R at the premarket high sellers pushed had, shorted the first RET visible in the 1 min. 2.Got distracted and missed the break of DL and the fact that there was a HL, so missed a proper exit and a good entry that proved to me a profitable move. 3. I am missing something here, but don't know what it is, did not take the short at 10:12 as I did not trust the LH to be of importance, I guess the increase in volume at my entry bar and the fact that it closed on the top should have been reason enough to exit, but.... 4.Shorted the first RET after the BO of what I considered chop, was not a great trade, but at least not a loser. Any comments will be appreciated.

My view of the open:

Today´s action in the NQ. 1. After a LH at the open it took the short. 1 contract was closed at the break of the first Supply Line (SL), although I hesitated (something to think about). The second contract was exited after what I understood at the time as a Selling Climax (SC) so I decided to close as soon as I got demand and a new high. 2. Like prices did not went up but instead I got a new LH i decided to reenter, but then I spotted that 32 could be potential S from yest trading Range so i decided to close the trade as soon as it failed to break through S. After that and the break of SL from the open I thought about taking a long, but the first break above 40 was on very low volume (now I am trying to include vol in the equation) so I decided to pass, then as price descended to 34 I thought about the possibility of being in the chop, and given the time i decided to call it a day. In Couldashouldawoulda (CSW) mode I guess 3 was a valid entry after the BO of 40. And if taken with more than 1 contract, It would have stayed open until the time of this post.

My view before the open, a little late (sorry) 60 Min 5 min

Today´s action: The blue dot signals where I was planning to short, the thing is I was not sure it was a break of what I thought was a TC as it was so close to the DL, so i decided to pass. Bad call :doh:

NQ Premarket analysis Daily 60 min 5 min We are coming back from the top of the trading channel (TC) and are making a Lower High (LH) within the 60 min uptrending TC. I have a question though, as we are still in the channel but we have a LH, what is the LOLR? As for strategy: Wait for S to be found within the TC or at an oversold area and find a long entry Wait for the TC to be broken and a LH to confirm and take a short entry.

My trading day: 1. After sellers failed to break below the premarket low and prices congested into a hinge, I waited for the BO of the hinge ant took the first RET (Not visible in the 1 min chart) 2. After reaching the MP of the movement from 52 buyers lost interest and sellers managed to set a LH triggering my first exit around the MP and the second one at the break of LSL. As I was at the MP and it looked like it had provided R i decided to take a Short, but then I realized I could be falling into the chop, so I decided to exit as soon as I had a chance, that came at 10:39 and I exited at BE. Market was too slow for my taste, so I decided to call it a day 5 min to 11.

Premarket view of the NQ 60 Min 5 min

I failed to see this morning that we were back at the bottom of the TC, so we might get an interesting REV intraday. Lets see.

After a strong push to the downside that took us out of the TR from the last days, sellers found moderate buying between 3040 and 3050, this slowed the pace of the fall after the close, but the downtrend was still active until this morning when the SL from PDH was broken. Now, after having exited the channel buyers have been able to hold their position and are pushing towards R at 50. We´ll see if they can make it.

Hey G, I see you want to keep the thread alive so I will join you. I agree that the weekly trend is still down, but the HL in the daily gives us an early warning, we are still under the 50% pullback level from last downswing so i guess selling pressure still rules, but for those short the sl will be under atack in the following days and then we will know.

Today´s action: