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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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So we made it to the bottom
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Thanks, so according to the TC DL from premarket the REV at 68 was mean reversion? It would seem so, tho it broke out of all that at 0950.
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I actually saw a hinge, but as Db said, sellers tried the downside and failed, that also happened just before the a break of a SL and an HL therefore an entry was triggered around 10:00 on the first RET after the line break.
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How did you learn to read fear in price action, what can I read to get a deeper knowledge of that?
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Impresive, did you stay the whole day?
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Well, that is a good way to put it.
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I am not sure I understand how fear fits into what you are presenting here. Who is afraid of what? Perhaps I am just too much of a newbie to understand what you are presenting.
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So rejections are a manifestation of fear. Like "We are not finding anyone who wants this stuff lets get the hell out of here" BTW, I dont really want the discussion to begin anywhere, just want to discuss how fear looks in the charts. For example today bulls reached 98 and stalled, they tried to push back again from 85 and failed, from there they just started losing hope and dumped their contracts all the way to 10. There were some moments where bulls manned up and kept prices from falling further, but as soon as they realized there were no followers they started to exit again. Was that fear?
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Nice, seems like you have a good understanding of PA.
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Once we got back inside the longer term TC?
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Thanks as well, I wil reply tomorrow.
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Hey, I did not see this last week I will reply tomorrow. Thanks
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Although I am currently in a campaign against spandex lines, days like today still take a toll in my trading, I was tempted to stop trading and just watch after being scratched out multiple times, I think I still need to work in how to deal with these kind of deep RETs environments. Thankfully the SLA got me out of trouble after the break of the second SL.
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You will have to define a RET. If a 2 tick poke means that is not a ret but a HH is gonna depend on your backtesting. Best of lucks.
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You will have to define a RET. If a 2 tick poke means that is not a ret but a HH is gonna depend on your backtesting. Best of lucks.
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Ok, having read what you just posted, and what you said in your previous post, all I can say is that the plunge could have been traded via SLA, if you consider that the last poke above LSH was just a poke, then it could count as a RET (a failure more precisely), but that is the kind of thing you have to define via backtesting, and as I have not done backtesting to USDJPY I didnt think it was responsible to say such a thing before (information risk )
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Ok, having read what you just posted, and what you said in your previous post, all I can say is that the plunge could have been traded via SLA, if you consider that the last poke above LSH was just a poke, then it could count as a RET (a failure more precisely), but that is the kind of thing you have to define via backtesting, and as I have not done backtesting to USDJPY I didnt think it was responsible to say such a thing before (information risk )
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In order to learn SLA and have a discussion with the rest of the people learning it why don you give NQ a try. I dont really have much more to say about USDJPY.
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In order to learn SLA and have a discussion with the rest of the people learning it why don you give NQ a try. I dont really have much more to say about USDJPY.
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Remember that you need a LL or HH to fan a line. Also, did you trace these in real time or over the chart in hindsight ?
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Remember that you need a LL or HH to fan a line. Also, did you trace these in real time or over the chart in hindsight ?
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First of all, thanks for participating. What I meant was that the fact why the market (NQ) did not go anywhere today could be explained via fear. I mean, those who are betting on price to fall (bears) did not commit (sold) more and did not drive prices down. The question is then, why, what were they afraid of. They might be waiting for FOMC and they are not going to commit their funds until they have that information or afraid of something else, I am not sure what it was therefore the post. In the other hand, those who are betting on price to rise (bulls) did not commit either, at least until 11:00, what are they afraid of, why dont they commit and join the party. At 10:15 one can see a strong move to the upside when prices reach 35, what was that, why shorts just covered so fast, why buyers rushed in and paid the ask. What were they afraid of. That is what the post is about.
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In the Apendix E PDF, Db talks about "The dynamics of fear" "...dynamics of fear (fear of making the wrong decision, fear of losing money, fear of missing out, fear of holding too long, fear of not holding long enough, fear of being tricked, fear of being trapped, fear of being blind-sided, etc, etc, etc)..." Regarding this, I would like to start a discussion about the way fear shows itself in the charts, as I realized there is not really much understanding (at least from my side) about how to read fear in RT. If there is no reply, I will assume I am the only one interested and therefore move on on my own. For starters, today is as good as any day to start. What were traders afraid of during the first 90 mins of trading?. What motivated them to avoid committing and paying higher prices or receiving lower prices, what happened at 10:15 that prompted that strong up wave, was it bears afraid of being in the wrong side, was it bulls afraid of missing out?
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Db, what an excellent addition to the SLAAMT collection. It has all the questions tha a newbie doesnt know how to ask and the way to start the observation phase with a purpose. Thanks
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Some notes on today´s oil activity.