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Niko
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Everything posted by Niko
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Nice, now a TR between 38 and 47.
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Is 47 the mean? I had a PM mean at 48 but now it seems like 47.
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20 point range, now one has to make the decision wait for a break or trade inside, that has to be in the plan BTW.
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Pretty volatile. Bounced off the mean in the daily TC.
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Backtesting the SLA (Sept 23rd 2013)
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Yep, now I can see that. Posted the chart so that others who are reading might comment on this.
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I guess more important than that (in a fast market price might overshoot by more than 2 ticks) is the behavior and by that I mean the way the rejection occurs, if for example the rally stalls and collapses it tells you something about buying interest not being there anymore (nobody else wants it so why would you? ) I could be wrong though.
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Great stuff green, very interesting how things are really similar in both worlds and thanks for your insights.
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Db, what kept you from taking a long at the HL at 9:48 /49 (dep on datafeed), I just finished replaying the day and couldn't find a reason not to take it, so I was wondering. By that time, we had begun moving sideways. The first effort to exit this failed immediately. Therefore I decided to wait until price had decisively left this consolidation one way or the other before making a commitment. I didn't care about a few points.
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This is what I saw. As I said, missed the two yellow circles.
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Thanks, anyway, missed the REV at 26. And the DTDB at 10:08 so I think i will call it a day I am out of focus.
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Nice call BTW . Crystal Clear Maybe we can get to 3475 quickly and I can go back to bed. If only was that easy. Whats the deal with 20. The activity on the 21st and 25th maybe.
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Thanks, it always helps to see stuff from your viewpoint.
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Given the action at 10:00 and what happened yesterday at that same level I ended up trying to take a REV that got scratched. You said before that the odds of that REV having any possibilities were none, so I will take that into account for the future. But I wanted to ask you, besides the fact that the line was intact is there anything else that you had in your mind that prompted you to stay in the trade? Because nothing prompted me to get out. The upside had been rejected several times, so the LOLR was down, and according to AMT, "down" meant the LL of the TC. We never got there, but there was no definable reversal until the point where the SL was broken and price moved to the upside by more than a couple of points. You've asked before how I can stay in when everybody else is bailing at the least little quiver and twitch. The chief reason is that I have my eye on the limits and whether supply and demand are in the right balance to get there. As long as the limit hasn't been reached and price isn't breaking the stride by more than a few ticks, there's simply to reason to exit. The "lines" are irrelevant. I draw them in only to illustrate the stride. Ok thanks, will have to work on that, anyway I managed to reenter below 40 and stayed all the way to the break of the stride, but in hindsight it was obvious that I should have stayed during the congestion and saved myself the work. Things to keep on the journal for future reference.
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Some weeks ago we had this same behavior premarket, then after the open sellers explored the downside, didn't find much of a following and then it was time to look for buyers at the MP (value), as no buyers were found then those who were invested just gave up and all hell broke loose. I am not sure where we discussed it but it must be in the ghost thread at ET.
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And it stopped on the daily swing low of the 21st.
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One can only hope (VREV) . And back at 32, how odd.
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Thanks, looks like 45 was it, but it just got stuck there. The probability that we would have another V reversal at the same place two days in a row was slim to none. As for the LL, looks to me like it's around 3485.
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It was there for the taking... In the past you have talked about paying attention not only to the diagonals but also to the horizontals, those who did, got rewarded today. It helps. However, my focus was the mean of the March trend channel. The confluence of the three says something about the balance between demand and supply.
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Well, a VREV at PDL was not what I expected :doh:
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I guess this doesnt count as a real time call. :haha:
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So AMT does it again
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So far is succeeding
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They ran out of buyers at 80 just after the open, it was inside a very tiny range so my "REV" is more like the prelude of the BO, I had 77.50 as an entry so that is why I asked. BTW, what did I miss there 77 was a line in the sand since yesterday afternoon. I wanted to see it broken first. Three points is not that big a deal.
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I only followed the market until the rejection of 52, but it was pretty much the same thing as far as entries go. I think I am still closing the 1 lot too early. Another thing, why not the REV at the open? What REV at the open?