PiP.Squeak

This is exactly right and what I refer to as fundamental truth. I believe good trading strategies are built on fundamental truths because, when things go bad, and they always seem to sooner or later, fundamental truths are always still the same. It seems like when you base a strategy on fundamental truths you gain confidence. In my mind the most important part is not just being able to determine if the market is really trending by identifying higher highs or lower lows, but being able to identify the trend early on rather than after the fact. I've found that almost always a trend can be can be identified on the smaller time frame first using the same method of identifying higher highs or lower lows. Then I draw a hard trend line across the bottom/support of an up trend or the top/resistance of a down trend. In order to do this there has to be at least two retracements. Then I wait for it to come back one more time and retest my trend line. If it holds then I take the trade. From there on its about stop loss management. I try to do that on the larger time frame moving to just below or above my trend line as the trend develops. I seems like if I try to wait until the trend is clearly recognizable on the larger time frame most of it has already passed me by. I also try and get a feel for why the market is moving. For example; If Italy just announced that they may default on their debt there's a pretty good chance we're going to trend until the end of the day! It also seems like we have longer faster moving candles in the direction of the trend and short slow moving candles in the retracement. That's what seems to work for me, but I'd love to hear what others do to identify a trend early on.

So I have to actually hit my own thumb with a hammer in order to know it hurts? I can't watch someone else do it and learn from all the cursing and dancing around the room with a throbbing thumb that smashing the crap out of it is probably not a good thing to do? Dang!:crap: Then why are we reading and posting on all these sites? As for me' date=' I'm trying to share my experiences (good or bad) with others and hoping to learn from the experiences of others who have gone before me. Maybe that way I won't have to always smash my own thumb to become a better trader. Experience and success are not the same thing. Just think of a football game, success is winning, experience is had by all - winners and losers! I think there are some really, really "Experienced" traders out there who have never achieved success. However, I do believe that to achieve long term, sustainable success [u']you must have experience,[/u] some can be obtained by your own actions and some can be obtained by observing and learning from others, (i.e. reading these posts). I also believe, the more experience you have the better your chances of success will be. Success in trading is easy to measure - A long term, sustainable increase in wealth! Maybe the real question should be "Are you really a successful trader?"

I COULDN'T AGREE MORE! Notice the web address, No bias there! "http://english/.aljazeera.net" 4 guys? Really? What about the hundred of thousands of people who lied when they took out those mortgages and said "yea I can afford that" and "absolutely yes I promise to pay you back"? What about the thousands of lenders, developers, real estate agents, brokers and sales people that said "don't worry I'll show you how you can buy it with NO money down" and "don't worry the price of houses always goes up, if you can't afford it you can roll it over in a year or so to one you can afford" Liars lying to people who put profits before ethics and common sense. Or how about Freddy and Fannie's role in guaranteeing those mortgages so that the bankers could bundle them and sell them as "A" rated loans, and then not being able to cover them? I wish it was only FOUR guys that did something unethical. We would just punish them and be done with it. But it's not. Its the millions of people from main street to wall street trying to find a short cut to wealth. This is pure politically biased junk that has NOTHING to do with trading. How about we leave the political BS to a political site!!!!! I want to come here to learn and share about investing and trading not politics. We don't need that bias, America bashing crap here. If I want to read that I'll go to "http://english/.aljazeera.net"

I've watched the Gaps for a long time and I've seen them close about 99% of the time. I have about a 5% success ratio picking the bottom/top. It seems that often the momentum of the trend has a significant impact on when the reversal occurs. I've had better success when I wait until the 50 EMA on a 15Min chart either flattens out or reverses before placing a trade. I've been stopped out many times trading the first reversal thinking "It can't go that much further before it turns and closes the gap" :crap: I've even stacked them up as the market moved away from the gap. Thinking "If the trade was good at 25 PiPs, it should be better at 45." It's a lot easier to trade when your 97% sure which way its going sooner or latter, its a lot harder not to get in to deep before the reversal! They can be good trades if you get in at the right time! I'd really like to hear more from all the experts out there about how you determine when to take the trade.

Here’s my take for what it’s worth. I think the main point of the article is correct (Mental discipline is required to be successful). That's true for any professional in any profession. However, he’s missing the main point of what it takes to control your emotions. What he doesn’t say is mental discipline is easy if you have REAL confidence in your strategy, impossible if you don’t. The difference between a new trader and a seasoned professional is trust in a proven strategy that THEY have experienced first hand many, many times. They can execute their strategy with confidence because they know it intimately, they know when conditions require adjustment and how to adjust it accordingly. They own it emotionally, it doesn’t own them. :crap: I believe confidence and emotions are directly related to experience, knowledge and proof, NOT THEORY, Proof. I’ve found emotions when trading ALWAYS fall into these three categories 1. Those that don't know and don't know they don't know. - They have no emotions because they have yet to feel the pain of failure or the satisfaction of success. This position will soon change to #2 2. Those that don't know and now know they don't know - They have fear because they now know the pain of failure and have little idea of how to achieve and ensure success. This can only change to #3 through education and positive, repetitive outcomes. 3. Those that know and know they know. - They know the way to success, have experienced it and are confident they can achieve it again because they know how they obtained it. This only comes through knowledge and solid proof gained by experience. As my college professor used to say "Don't show up for the test if your homework's not done. Then you won't have to worry about passing!!" Knowing the answers = knowing the results of taking the test. Knowledge, a realistic strategy based on through testing in REAL TIME, and proven success over time are they ONLY things that build real confidence! When you’ve placed as many trades as Tiger Woods has swung a golf club you’ll be as confident in wining as a trader as Tiger is in wining a golf tournament. Most traders give up LONG before that! As for the feeding part, I'd have to agree with Gosu "What they lose tomorrow in the markets is a rain drop in the pacific ocean"