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One of the biggest moments for the markets can come when there is a key news release or fresh fundamental data. Buyers and sellers seem to wrestle with the potential outcome, and in the case of larger announcements, volatility goes through the roof. The problem that I see some traders struggle with is knowing what news to look for, and how to trade it. Finding news that you can actually use. The thing that often comes up when you talk about announcements is that a lot of traders don’t understand the market reactions. A report will come out and it will appear as though it is good news, but the market will go down. The thing is that some people still try to trade on the news itself, when in reality they should be looking at what the market thinks the news will be. More than likely, those days when there was a “good” piece of data but the market went down, forecasts were calling for a better number. The other explanation is that the report just might not have been as important to the market as it was to the observer trying to trade it. Reports and news events are lobbed into a general basket of analysis called fundamentals. Fundamental analysis focuses on the things that have the potential to impact the supply or the demand in a particular market, thus affecting the prices. Reports that come out with some regularity, like initial unemployment claims, are unlikely to rock the S&P unless they are really, really shocking. Federal Reserve meetings, which are a rarer occurrence, tend to hold a bit more zest for traders. Monthly employment readings are also big. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings are key figures for inflation, which in times of economic troubles might get more attention than a decade or so ago. Perhaps one of the best ways to weigh what kind of news is valuable to traders is to keep your eye on the stories daily. Traders shouldn’t keep their head in the sand. If you know what is happening in the market that week, that day, and that hour, it is better all around. You can line up the market’s movements with fundamental events. Of course, there will be big news that comes out of nowhere that can still catch you and the market off guard. However, there are plenty of economic report calendars, Federal Reserve meeting notices, and other lists that show you key data points. Most news outlets will also report results of a general survey of economists showing what the basic expectations might be. Knowing what the expectations are ahead of the report is just as important as the report itself. Good news can quickly become bad news if it falls short of what people were looking for. A great example of this in recent news is the build-up ahead of the debt ceiling deal. In any other situation, finding a compromise or agreement would be considered a good thing and good news. The opposite was true in this case as investors and traders weighed the potential impact of continuing debt and a tarnish on the credit rating for the US. The highlighted area in the following chart shows the reaction leading up to and following the news: Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Chart courtesy of Gecko Software. Focus on the bigger picture, not just the headlines. One of the best favors a trader can do for themselves is stay appraised of the bigger picture. There are plenty of places where you can get calendars online, and check for the stories that might impact the market. The longer you watch these fundamentals, the more likely you are to be able to distinguish which ones might bring higher volatility and potential trading opportunities. Avoid developing tunnel vision and focusing only on the things you think could be important. Watch for forecasts and estimates on reports – these are just as important as the actual news release and can be key in trying to gauge possible market direction. Good news and bad news are relative to expectations. Best Trades to you, __________ Larry Levin Founder & President - Trading Advantage

While the sobering news from Europe has finally started to weigh on US stocks, I thought I’d add gasoline to the fire and remind everyone of the twisted morass that’s our own domestic financial situation. The top 5 banks in the US now account for a massively disproportionate amount of the derivative risk in the financial system. Specifically, of the $250 trillion in gross notional amount of derivative contracts outstanding (consisting of Interest Rate, FX, Equity Contracts, Commodity and CDS) among the Top 25 commercial banks (a number that swells to $333 trillion when looking at the Top 25 Bank Holding Companies), a mere 5 account for 95.9% of all derivative exposure. The top 4 banks: JPM with $78.1 trillion in exposure, Citi with $56 trillion, Bank of America with $53 trillion and Goldman with $48 trillion, account for 94.4% of total exposure. As historically has been the case, the bulk of consolidated exposure is in Interest Rate swaps ($204.6 trillion), followed by FX ($26.5TR), CDS ($15.2 trillion), and Equity and Commodity with $1.6 and $1.4 trillion, respectively. And that's your definition of Too Big To Fail right there: the biggest banks are not only getting bigger, but their risk exposure is now at a new all-time-high. Good thing Backstop Ben and Congress are always ready with their catcher’s mitt. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia. _______________ Larry Levin President & Founder - TradingAdvantage

When Ben Bernanke was appointed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve seven years ago, the national debt was $7,932,709,661,723.50. For those of you not interested in counting digits, that number is nearly a cool $8 trillion, but still a tough sum to wrap your brain around. After yesterday’s end of the month $70 billion Treasury debt auction settlement, total US debt is now a record $15.692 trillion dollars, nearly double what it was when Benny became the leader of the Inkjets back in 2005. To make the seemingly unquantifiable somehow quantifiable - total US GDP is $15.6242 trillion, which is 101.5% of GDP. That’s right; the national debt is now GREATER than the Gross Domestic Product. US politicians, including the White House, Treasury, and the Federal Reserve have just crossed the Rubicon: the point of no return. Unless the US economy heats up like a furnace, which would drive GDP higher than total debt, we have crossed the Rubicon indeed. Speaking of the Rubicon we are reminded of Caesar and how the Roman Empire once ruled the world. England, France and Spain were also global empires that were brought to end by DEBT. To be sure, there was more to it than debt but it cannot be denied that profligacy was a major factor in all their declines. If you aren’t depressed enough, read on at Zero Hedge where the eponymous Tyler Durden writes about the implications of this unfathomable debt figure. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/total-us-debt-soars-1015-gdp Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Larry Levin

A question I often receive is, "How can there be more buyers or sellers at one price? Isn't there a buyer for every seller and a seller for every buyer?" The answer is yes, but people are forgetting one important thing. There is a bid and an ask (or offer), and only one of them can be traded at a time. A bid is an expression of willingness to buy at a price; an ask (or offer) is an expression to sell. If the ES is trading at 1200.50, the bid is either 1200.25 or 1200.50. The answer depends on which way the market has just traded. Let's make it easy and simply say the ES is between 1200.25 & 1200.50, making the bid 1200.25. In order for the market to move from 1200.25 to 1200.50, someone must pay up to get filled. You may not be in a hurry and attempt to wait to buy 1200.25, but that will usually only happen when the bid/ask drops to 1200.00 & 1200.25 and you are actually filled on the ask. If you are trying to buy and really want to get filled, you must pay up at the offer or risk missing the trade. Conversely, if you really want to get filled on a sale, you must hit the bid, or reach down to get filled. Sure, there is someone on the other side of the trade, but without you choosing to reach up and pay the offer the market stands still. Therefore when trades are executed at the offer it is said to be done by the buyers even though there are sellers at that price taking the other side. Every buy will be filled on the offer and every sell will be filled on the bid, period. Let's say we once more have a number of 1200.50 and we see that over time (sometimes just a few seconds) the fills were 100 x 1300. We can say that there were 1200 more buyers than sellers at 1200.50 because of how traders reacted to the bid/ask spread when it was at 1200.25 x 1200.50 and higher at 1200.50 x 1200.75 (called the spread.) When the market was at the lower spread, 1300 buyers reached UP to pay the 1200.50 offer. When the market was at the higher spread, 100 sellers reach DOWN to sell the 1200.50 bid. When the spread traded around this price range there truly were more buyers than sellers at 1200.50. Understanding bid and ask can open up other realms of technical analysis. There are some traders who will look at the bid and ask order flows to try to get clues to potential movement in the market based on what buyers and sellers are doing. This is often referred to as reading order book flow or depth-of-market. If you look at the number of orders for each bid and ask around the current market price you can see the probable number of transactions available at those levels. Reading this information is the key to certain kinds of volume based trading systems and other trading methods that follow the book order flow. Best Trades to You, Larry Levin Founder & President - Trading Advantage

It seems that the main “drink” on the menu for the market is the FOMC report which will be served during tomorrow afternoon’s cocktail hour, after they wrap-up their two day meeting. All the drinks will of course be served with a garnish of Apple earnings, which came in far better than expected at $12.30 EPS after the market close that sent the stock higher in after-hours trading. Prior to Apple’s announcement, none of today’s news was exceptionally good, but the market seemingly shrugged it all off. It’s no surprise that the consumers aren’t really all that confident as the Conference Board’s gauge for consumers’ expectations declined to 81.1 in April, down from 82.5 in March. Also, the Case-Shiller report was released showing that U.S. home prices dropped sharply in February to hit the worst level in almost a decade. And sales of newly built homes during March dropped 7.1%, largely because of a sizable upward revision to the government’s data on sales for February. Bad numbers, scary numbers and of course revised numbers...... we might as well put the bevy of today’s financial data in a blender and serve it up over ice. All eyes are on Benny and the Inkjets to see if they will once again be pouring a toxic cocktail of “liquidity.” Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Best Trade to all, Larry Levin

The world of trading has many parts that seem a little foreign to new traders. There are plenty of catch phrases, symbols, and other banter that can be intimidating or even confusing at first. One of the biggest sources of confusion includes the shorthand that you see for many markets. Understanding what you are reading is important, and learning the basic lingo can come in handy. Everything has a specified time and place All futures contracts (be it for commodities or financial instruments) have very specific parts, quantities, and dates associated with them – and that’s before you even worry about the price! Not all contracts are created equal. The value of the S&P 500 contract is five times the value of the e-mini S&P 500 contract. Those are two symbols you wouldn’t want to confuse! If there are markets you want to trade, visit the exchange’s website and learn about the key parts for each contract. These will include: The contract size The futures months for the contract The format for the price quote The smallest amount by which the price of the contract can move (whole points or fractions of a point, also known as minimum tick) Any daily trading limits for price movements Trading symbols for the contract - And much more! Gimme an H! Gimme a U! Memorizing all of this might seem like a bit of overkill, but in modern electronic markets making a mistake can happen in seconds and cost an unlimited amount of loss and confusion. Just remember that “fat finger” trade and the trouble it caused! Let’s take a look at a contract I trade, the e-mini S&P 500. This futures market trades electronically (hence the “e”) on the CME Group’s Globex platform. On their website, I can go to Contract Specifications and learn that: The symbol for this market is ES. I can use this code to find price quotes on many tickers. The contract size is $50 x the e-mini S&P 500 futures price. I can use this value to calculate the dollar risk/gain per point in the market. Basically, if each point is worth $50, a 3 point movement would be $150. If I want to calculate the total dollar value of a single contract, I just have to multiply the current price by $50. If the market is trading at 1,280.00 that means it is worth 1280 x $50 = $64,000. The minimum price fluctuation is 0.25. That means that if I am making an offer or trying to quote a price, I know that there are quarter point increments so I can’t offer a price like 1265.30 in this market. It would have to be 1265.25 or 1265.50. The contract details also list the trading times so I know when a session begins and ends, and also the trading contract months. This market has contracts for March, June, September and December (the quarterly cycle) – these months will be written with their own symbols as well – H, M, U, Z. The full list of monthly symbols is: JAN - F FEB - G MAR - H APR - J MAY - K JUN - M JUL - N AUG - Q SEP - U OCT - V NOV - X DEC - Z Each contract will expire at some point, and that date is relative to the contract month. If you can understand the lingo, you can avoid costly mistakes Some of this might seem like a no-brainer; after all, a lot of trading programs will give you the info with a single keystroke so you don’t have to memorize all of it. The reason I think it is still relevant to know this is because taking the time to learn and understand how the markets work and what the lingo means can save you potential trouble. What happens if you are long ESU11 and you try to close the position by selling ESZ11? Can’t do it – you would know that the ES U11 is the e-mini S&P 500 for September (U) 2011 and the ES Z11 is the e-mini S&P 500 for December (Z) 2011. Best Trade To You, Larry Levin Founder & President - Trading Advantage __________________ Larry Levin's Trading Advantage is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results.

I've already covered some of the better known patterns like doji (Tip #18) and engulfing (Tip#19) – now it's time to add harami to your candlestick chart pattern arsenal. Let's take a look at what this technical signal looks like, and what opportunities might be presenting themselves when you see it. Harami patterns can be bearish or bullish Harami, like engulfing patterns, are a two candlestick formation. They are actually often confused with engulfing patterns because they both involve candles where one real body is bigger than the other. The difference is that in harami, the preceding (or first) candle in the pattern is the longer one of the pair; it encompasses the whole body of the second candlestick. If you see this two candlestick pattern, it could be a sign of a reversal In a candlestick chart, bullish harami are formed when a long filled (or red) candlestick appears during an established downtrend and is followed by a smaller hollow (or green) candlestick. The reason this is a bullish signal is based on the idea that the first candle forms during a session with potentially high volume and bearish sentiment. The following day, there is a gap higher to open, a smaller trading range, and prices were supported above the previous day's close. This is seen as a potential indication that things are about to turn – a bullish reversal. A bearish harami is made up of a long hollow (or green) candlestick occurring during an established uptrend which is then followed by a smaller filled (or red) candlestick. Similar principles apply to this signal as they did to the bullish version – the first day makes way for a smaller range led by a gap lower and selling pressure that kept prices from rising. It is worth noting that some candlestick chartists suggest harami can include candlesticks of any color combination – filled + filled, filled + hollow, and hollow + hollow. The whole point for them is for a larger candlestick to be flanked by a smaller one. The reversal signal is just potentially stronger when the second candle is a different color. The two different candle sizes are just seen as an abrupt and sustained bit of trading contrary to the prevailing trend. Harami are telling you that there has been a sudden trading shift This candlestick pattern tends to crop up when there has been an apparent loss of trading momentum. The kanji definition of harami is embryo – I take this to mean that the second candlestick is just the early start of a new trading direction, contrary to the existing one. Like most candlestick patterns, it may be wise to look for confirmation of a reversal once you spot harami. Best Trades to you, Larry Levin Founder & President-

The market is back to the races in Q2 today with a whole lot of green on the board. Stocks, oil, gold, and commodities all finished higher today. The reason: the news folks were touting the manufacturing numbers from February. Yes, the ISM index of national factory activity rose to 53.4 in February, topping economist’s expectations of 53.0. Although it was only a .4 bonus, it was a full point above last month’s number. The economic data released Monday was far from uniformly positive. Construction Spending data was not the +0.7% gain that was expected but a -1.1% decline. It was also far worse than last month’s release of -0.1%. It doesn’t seem to matter. Any and all economic data is viewed through a myopic lens that screens out any negative information and over-emphasizes the positive. As we saw today, the market went straight up despite the aforementioned construction spending that suffered its biggest drop in seven months. In addition, we learned the euro zone's manufacturing sector contracted for an eighth straight month in March, with the downturn spreading to the core economies of Germany and France. But none of this seemingly matters. With the central planners in charge, we’ve become conditioned to the good-news-only part of the proposition. When you continue to operate in economic fantasy land with a Federal Reserve determined to keep the dollars coming, and interests rates low, there’s no reason to consider the bad news. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Best Trade to You, ____________ Larry Levin

Ben’s Twilight Zone Power Point The market closed lower for only the second time in the last ten trading sessions, yet it can hardly be considered a pullback. Instead, it was just another lethargic trading day with mostly sideways action and light volume. It’s been about as exciting as watching paint dry. The entire daily range wasn’t even 10 points. Moving from the dull to the downright delusional, Ben Bernanke gave a speech today in front of students from George Washington University's School of Business as part of a four-part lecture series explaining the role of the “Federal Reserve in the financial crisis.” You can see the full power point outline here of his massive presentation. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/ben-bernankes-presentation-on-the-origins-and-mission-of-the-federal-reserve-2012-3##ixzz1pgeNYEhC Of course Ben’s version of the Fed dogma is decidedly different, or shall we see, the diametrical opposite of the actual truth. Let’s look at his two slides titled, “Policy Tools of Central Banks.” • “Monetary Policy -For macroeconomic stability: In normal times, central banks adjust the level of short-term interest rates to influence spending, production, employment and inflation. “ Somehow he forgot to add the sub-header, in not so normal times, the central banks print money to compensate for the global financial fiascos they helped cause. • “Provision for liquidity -For financial stability: Central banks provide liquidity (short-term loans) to financial institutions or markets to help calm financial panics, serving as the “lender of last resort” Hmm, perhaps another oversight? Didn’t Ben mean to say that the Central Banks would provide liquidity to help calm the financial panics they had a large role in creating by perpetuating a cultural of regulatory laxity and irresponsible spending? • “Financial regulation and supervision -Many central banks, including the Federal Reserve, also supervise financial institutions. To the extent that supervision helps keep firms financially healthy, the risk of loss of confidence by the public and ensuing panic is reduced.” Yes, he really does have the audacity to say that the fed serves as the protector of the public confidence AND that they act in a “supervisory” role in their relations with their banksters. Really, these bullet points are taken verbatim from Ben’s presentation. The truth is in fact stranger than fiction. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Best Trade to You, _________________ Larry Levin Founder & President - Trading Advantage

There is a one-day FOMC meeting tomorrow where the #1 topic of discussion will be “to QE or not to QE.” Should the FOMC print more counterfeit money out of thin air? The answer certainly lies in how badly the banksters want it, and if inflation is creeping up. The good thing for the Fed is that as it watches inflationary pressure – it doesn’t bother to count prices that go up. In anticipation of Tuesday’s meeting, JP Morgan says the following: We expect a relatively uneventful outcome following tomorrow's FOMC meeting. We do not expect any balance sheet actions, nor do we anticipate any strong signaling that such actions are likely to occur at a subsequent meeting. Because tomorrow's meeting is a one-day meeting there will be no new economic projections or funds rate projections, nor will there be a post-meeting press conference. To the extent there is any news it is likely to come from changes in the wording of the FOMC statement. We believe there will be only a few minor tweaks to the statement. Perhaps the most significant is a change to the wording of the inflation discussion, to acknowledge that headline inflation has been pushed higher by energy prices. (My editorial comment: the Fed doesn’t count energy prices because they are always & forever “transitory.”) There could be some fairly small adjustments to the growth description: a little more cautious about consumer spending and maybe a touch more upbeat on the labor market, while still noting that the unemployment rate remains elevated. We expect no change to the late 2014 rate guidance. Lacker dissented at the last meeting and will probably do so again tomorrow. A case could be made that Williams will cast a dovish dissent, or even Raskin or Tarullo for that matter; though we think it's more likely that we see no dovish dissents tomorrow. There “may” be some action in the morning; however, the late morning into the afternoon should be very slow. If anything unexpected is said in the statement, the market could be wild for 10-15 minutes after the release. If not, it will be as slow as the last FOMC statement. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” _____________ Larry Levin

In my opinion, every trade you consider should be laid out ahead of time with a roadmap. A complete map should have an “off ramp” or a place where it makes sense to enter the market. It should also have exits for your destination (profits) as well as off ramps for emergency exits. This part of your plan will likely include stop orders. Stop orders placed to potentially close an open position are called stop loss orders A stop order is a contingency order. It is triggered only comes into play at the price level specified in the order. In other words if the market never trades at that price, the order will never become active. The caveat to this is the fact that the market can sometimes gap through your price, at which point the order would be executed at the best possible price. This unfortunately has the tendency to open up the trade to the possibility of getting filled at a far worse price than the one specified in the stop order. So, in summary, a stop loss order specifies a price level at a point and beyond where your order will be triggered to a market order. Stop loss orders are like big signals where you will pull out of trade Based on how they function, stop orders have very specific placements. Buy stop orders are placed above the current market price. Sell stop orders are placed below the current market price. *PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. CHART COURTESY OF GECKO SOFTWARE. They work when the market trades at or through the specified stop price level. Once the price is hit, it becomes a market order and is executed at the best price available. Here is an example of a stop loss for an open long position (one that was initiated by buying a contract): Sell one December e-mini S&P futures contract at 1335.00 stop. The mechanics of this trade would work in a straightforward way. It would have to be placed below the price level the market is trading at so for this example, assume the market is trading at 1338.00. Normally, I recommend placing a stop loss order 3 points or less from the current market price. So if a long market position was initiated at 1338.00, this stop was placed. If the market starts to trade lower and hits 1335.00, then the sell stop would be triggered and the order would be filled as a sell at the market. If the market price gaps lower, say 1330.00, the stop loss would still be triggered and the order would be executed at the best possible price. That might mean any price at or below the 1330.00 point. You can see how the gap is something to be aware of. The same concept applies to a buy stop order. Consider the same example as a buy stop. Buy one December e-mini S&P futures at 1335.00 stop. The order would have to be placed above current market price, so keeping with the idea of 3 points or less, assume the market is trading at 1332.00. If the market trades higher, against your open short position (a trade initiated by selling a contract), the order would be triggered once it touches or moves higher than 1335.00. Traders can use a stop loss order and trail it behind an open position as the market moves in their favor Stop loss orders don’t go away if the market is moving in your favor. You can trail them to keep them within 3 points or less of the price level the market is trading at. In this way, you can actually try to use your stop loss to protect unrealized profits on an open trade. As long as the position does not get closed by getting filled on your limit order (Secret #2), you could keep rolling or trailing the stop loss order. Additionally, if you close out your position in a way other than through your stop order, don't forget to cancel your stop. In this way, stop loss orders remain a key component of any trading plan. They are like a safety net, and they can help you try to keep emotion out of your trade. Knowing when to cut your losses and exit a trade can help traders keep things in perspective. Too often people can fall into a trap of holding an open trade that is moving against them, hoping that the market will turn back in their favor. Making a roadmap and sticking to it can help you avoid this pitfall. _______________ Larry Levin President & Founder- Trading Advantage

Before we get to the moral hazard piece, I have to mention rollover. Thursday is the first day of rollover, which is when the March ES futures contract changes (rolls) to June. We call it “top step” in the pit. In the past we would trade the new June contract on its first day (Thursday) but now we will wait until next Monday. The reason for the change is that volume will stay quite heavy in March until next Monday, which gives us the best chances for good trades. CONTINUE TRADING MARCH UNTIL NEXT MONDAY. The following is a response I gave to a question about our “moral hazard” comment that ends each of our emails. The gentleman that asked wanted my insight as a seasoned trader and financial commentator and not that of an egghead economist. You see, the man that asked is running for Congress and wanted a different point of view. Boy, did he get it. Moral hazard is a term that describes how people/companies will take crazy risks that they would otherwise not undertake because they know they will not be held accountable if the crazy risk turns sour. An excellent example is how Congress and the president of this country NEVER – EVER - put a banker in jail no matter what his crimes are. Oh sure, occasionally a patsy is sent to jail, but we all know that the bosses will NEVER go there. What's more, since they know that they will never go there and that the SEC never asks them to admit to guilt, they continue to commit crimes in their regular course of business to make that extra buck or two, or two million. JP Morgan bankrupted Jefferson County Alabama with horrendously bad swap arrangements - committed bribery - was found guilty - and paid a fine. Jefferson County is BANKRUPT...and JPM paid a fine to the SEC. Officials of JPM even bribed the Mayor and the Mayor went to jail. Did the bankers that initiated the bribe go to jail? Of course not - they just paid a fine. THIS IS MORAL HAZARD! They know that even committing bribery to force, then secure, a ridiculously overpriced sewer project that even put the town into bankruptcy will NOT send them to jail. And since they know this, they will do it over & over & over again: Moral Hazard, indeed. My specific comment at the end of each email pertains to the risk removed by Paul Kanjorski's committee that allows the bankers to get away with murder yet again - metaphorically. Congress forced the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to relax the accounting rules for the banking industry's real estate portfolio. Before April 2nd 2009, banks had to mark the value of the real estate portfolio to the current value of the homes (mark-to-market). Prior to 2009, values were increasing and they were happy to "follow the rules." When the housing depression hit, they got off the hook again (remember, they had already been bailed out) when Kanjorski's committee forced FASB to remove this provision of GAAP accounting standards and allow bankers to use "mark-to-model" accounting standards. I like to call these new standards "mark-to-myth" or "make-it-up-as-you-go-along" accounting. This, of course, is a joke. Bankers can use an in-house "model" that they say will value a house in the future at X price, which is any price they want. Can you do that? Can you walk into a bank and ask for a loan...using your home as collateral that you know is 30% LESS than your purchase price? Mark-to-market accounting says today's market is 30% less than what you paid so you have no collateral in the home - and the banker throws you out of his office. Once out of the banker’s office, which you bailed out in 2008, you realize that you didn't get a chance to explain so you walk back in. You kindly make clear "But sir, you fail to realize that I value my home at the original purchase price - JUST LIKE YOU DO. I am using your very own 'mark-to-myth' accounting standards. We are alike, aren't we?" When the banker controls his laughter, you are thrown out again. The bankers are not only above the law; they change the very law at their whim because the spineless clown-posse in Washington DC will do whatever they want, as soon as they are told. Because of this type of moral hazard (no accountability), bankers went right on breaking the law in 2009, 2010, 2011, and continue today with the Robosigning frauds. Why would the bankers care if they are caught breaking the law? They never go to jail and all fines are but chump change to the original bounty of said scam. Moreover, all fines paid are now in their "costs of doing business." The cost of buying the SEC and Congress is as normal to them as the cost of redecorating an office building. Without SEVERE punishment of their never-ending crime sprees, the crimes will never end. And this is the moral hazard embedded for looking the other way, small SEC fines, and changing FASB standards to make them happy. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Best Trade To You, Larry Levin

Stop orders are often used to try to protect profits. Take the stop order to another dimension and use it to reverse your position and open another trading possibility! When you place a stop order, it is only activated if the market trades at or through the stop price. These stop prices are often key technical levels. If the market is breaking an important technical barrier, why not double the order and try to play the movement? Daytraders can use this technique to play trading sessions with wide ranges. Position traders can use the double stop in wider parameters, and target areas of historic support or resistance. Let's run the typical stop order scenario. A trader puts in an order to buy a contract. They are now long. They place a stop loss order below their entry price, usually at a key technical level. If the market moves higher, they are seeing a gain on their position. If the market moves too low, it will trigger their stop and close the position with a sell order. If the sell off in the market was triggered by bad news or it was the result of a trend reversal, what better moment could there be to reverse a position? This sets up a new potential trade opportunity if that stop level was based on a key technical area, rather than a simple point-based risk level. Run the same scene with double the stop order. When the market moved lower and triggered the sell stop, if it was two sells instead of one, the trader would be short one contract, positioned to play any continuing downside move. When a market breaks a key technical level, it might be signaling the trend shift and indicating that the opposite position should be played due to the momentum likely to carry forward the market from the technical break. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not limit losses. Certain market conditions may make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders. Prices may gap through the stop price. Take a look at this example of a double stop in action: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. When you place your new stop after the double stop is triggered, look for those areas of previous support to become the new levels of resistance and vice versa. Use these as a possible guide for your new order placement. Aim just outside these levels so there is sufficient room in case the market retests that area. Double stops can be used in moments when a trend might come to an end or the market may be poised for a reversal, like those that follow key economic reports. Using a double stop order is a way to take advantage of the market sentiment that is taking out your original position. It is just one way to try to play a breakout or reversal. This is a technique that can be employed when unknown factors come out into the light or when the rumor becomes news and is contrary to market expectations. Best Trades to you, Larry Levin

Markets are powerful things. When you first start trading, you are likely to hear a lot about the risk that comes with the potential opportunities in trading. Don't just pay it a lip-service. It is important that before you risk one dollar, you understand and respect how the markets work and what your responsibilities are. Understanding the mechanics of risk and reward will help you plan trades One key thing to remember about futures trading is that you are leveraged in your positions. What is leverage? Well, you are basically able to control (buy or sell) an exponentially greater value of contract with a fraction of the overall price. You use a smaller deposit (margin) as a performance bond to trade a much larger total value. Leverage can bring big dreams or big nightmares If each trade is leveraged, then the risks as well as the potential rewards are multiplied accordingly and that means you are on the hook big time. Consider this scenario: The S&P 500® Index is the most widely used barometer for large-cap U.S. stocks. Day trading is not done using the cash index itself, but instead using a futures contract that closely follows movements in the Index. This futures contract, dubbed the E-mini® S&P 500, is listed by CME Group, the largest futures and commodities exchange in the world. Each e-mini S&P contract is worth $50 multiplied by the index futures price. That means when the market is trading at 1275.00 that contract is worth 1275 x $50 or $63,750. So, for instance, if a day trader buys a September E-mini at 1275.00 and then sells it later in the day at 1278.00, then this would result in a profit of $150 (calculated as 3 points x $50 per point), minus fees and commissions. The minimum price fluctuation or "tick" is 0.25 points or $12.50. Initial Futures Margin is the amount of money that is required to open a buy or sell position on a futures contract. Margin essentially acts as a good faith deposit demonstrating your financial ability to tolerate the risk of the trade - as well as cover any potential losses. Initial Futures Margin for the e-mini S&P is set by the CME Group and is currently $5000 per contract. Add another contract, and you have to have twice the amount on deposit. The good news is that margin for day trading is reduced considerably. You should check with your brokerage to inquire about their day trading margin requirements. Also keep in mind that margin rates are sometimes updated or adjusted according to market volatility. So for every long or short position you have, a mere $5,000 (or in the case of day trading, considerably less) is enabling you to be in charge of over twelve times that value. Isn’t leverage great? Until it isn’t. It also means you can lose unlimited amounts of money, far greater values than you have on deposit. That responsibility is constant – you can lose money even while a position remains open. Every time your account dips below maintenance margin levels, you have to make an immediate deposit to bring it back up. If margin rates change while you have a position open, you are responsible to add funds to meet that level. Consider the value per point and you will be able to respect the power of the market If each point in the e-mini S&P 500 contract represents $50, it only takes 10 points for $500 or 100 point move to that $5,000 level. Some days have smaller trading ranges, or a tighter point spread between the high price and low price. Other days might have extremely volatile trading where 30 points can be given or taken away. 30 points is $1,500 per contract that you would have to celebrate if it is in your favor. It is also the amount you would have to deposit if you needed to bring an account up to margin levels. Trading more than one contract? Two will mean $3,000. Five contracts? You get it now – that means a large move in the market will cost you $250 per point. Things add up pretty quickly, and that is why it pays to appreciate and respect what you are getting into with every trade. Never lose sight of the risks – it helps keep you grounded It is easy to get carried away with the potentially glamorous parts of trading, but it pays to be aware of the real risks for every minute detail of a trade. I recommend planning every trade with these details in mind. I have specific targets for entry as well as profitable or losing exit strategies. Knowing when and where to pull the trigger every time is important whether the market it moving in my favor or against it. It helps me maintain a healthy respect for the power of the market, and keep me from letting my emotions dig me in too deep. Best Trades to you, Larry Levin Founder & President - Trading Advantage

For most traders, charts are like their road maps to potential trades. Technicians see potential patterns, key clues that they interpret for trading opportunities. Fundamentalists see confirmation of news stories or supply and demand dynamics playing out in the price fluctuations. Charts are indispensible to traders Understanding what a chart is telling you is paramount for traders We are going to look at the two most common chart types, and the basics of their construction. The main thing to understand when you are looking at any given chart is that there is key info that shouldn't change. Each chart will be showing you prices on one axis and time periods on another. Most charts will show the prices on the vertical axis and time periods (e.g. daily, hourly, five minute) on the horizontal one, like this: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Chart courtesy of Gecko Software. The filler in the middle of the chart is made up of the price bars. Each mark corresponds to a trading period on the bottom and a price range on the right. On this chart, these are the little bars that show the opening price, the high price, the low price, and the closing price. I tend to favor candlestick charts, which show the same information in a different way. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Chart courtesy of Gecko Software. Each candlestick shows the opening price, closing price, session high price, and low price and the color of each candlestick can tell you at a glance if the market closed higher or lower than the open i.e. if it was a down day or an up day. Whether a bar chart or candlestick chart, people who analyze charts (also known as technical analysis) are looking for clues to potential market direction. For them each new bar or candle can combine with one or several others to form patterns which they believe might forecast future price movements, or at the very least reveal possible trends. Technical analysis involves looking for possible clues or patterns in charts There are many different patterns that traders reading charts might be looking for. Some are simply patterns formed by the bars or candlesticks, others are more complex pattern which use other indicators. Let's take a look at some of the most basic: Sometimes, a chart that is showing a sideways pattern is said to be a in a channel. Every movement higher meets with overhead resistance where selling comes in. Each move lower brings in buyers which creates support. Candlestick charts also have special patterns that have been identified and named over a long history, said to stretch back to rice traders in Japan. Many of these patterns have fantastic Japanese names like doji or harami. Others have names which describe what is taking place in the pattern like engulfing patterns where the body of one candlestick overtakes the other. These are explored in more advanced Trading Tips. Recognizing certain patterns or trends can help when planning trades Technical analysis is one of the backbones for trading strategies. If you can correctly identify a trend, you might be able to spot a trading opportunity. If you can recognize and understand support and resistance, you might be able to use them when planning exit strategies. One of the key things to remember is that the history of a market's price action is no promise of future trading activity. Just because it went to a certain price level before, doesn't necessarily mean prices will move the same way again. Analysis is fallible. Another word of caution for traders - be careful not to let personal bias overrule chart observations. Sometimes we are guilty of seeing patterns to fit our desired forecasts. Best Trade to You, Larry Levin Founder & President - Trading Advantage 888.755.3846