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gianno
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Everything posted by gianno
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Can you define market context? Thanks
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I was never able to get a system based on candlesticks that worked. All backtests showed no edge. What are the historical results of these candlestick formations in selected markets? It is interesting what this guy writes about the subjective in patterns. His example involves an inside day. Only by following his type of analysis one can make sense of chart patterns IMO.
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Have you tried the Amibroker WFO? They ahve it for a long time, long before TS. I think TS backtesting and WFO suffer from RIRO as you said. Also suffer from giving too much power to people to get ruined. Eventually,the company will be ruined if the influx is lower than the outflux. What TS needs as someone else already mentioned is a program to find good systems in auto mode. That will not do any good to the ouflux maybe but it may increase the influx by making the program usable by a wider audience, the 99.99% of traders who cannot code systems.
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Thanks. In the meantime I did a lot of backtests and found out that candlesticks are a total waste of time.
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What's Your Experience with 'renting' Strategies
gianno replied to maguiredan's topic in Automated Trading
I heard that some of the people who rent strategies have developed them using artificial intelligence software for automated trading system design like trading system lab and price action lab. The second one searches only for patterns and the resulting strategies don't have any optimizable parameters. I tried it and it looks promising. If you take the output of price action lab for example and you use it as an input to a genetic programming algorithm the result can be a well behaving and robust system, I haven't done this but this is my next step. Then you can go out and rent all those systems, recover the cost of the software and make a lot of money without trading while those programs work to generate more systems. Here are some links: http://www.tradingsystemlab.com/default.aspx The Most Advanced Tool for Analyzing Price Action and Discovering Trading Systems If you can afford the first one that would be good although I'm not sure how they deal with curve-fitting, they say they do. The second one is more affordable but restricted to price patterns. -
Automated Price Action Strategy Development
gianno replied to gianno's topic in Swing Trading and Position Trading
Tried it and it seems it may have some potential. -
I faced the same problems and my solution was as follows: (a) for backtesting I use continuous reverse adjusted series (b) for technical analysis I use non-adjusted front contracts. Maybe this website can help: PINNACLE DATA PRODUCTS - Continuously Linked Commodity Contracts - CLC Database
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Is It True That 90% of Traders Never Make a Dime!
gianno replied to blindfingers's topic in Beginners Forum
More or less it is close ot 90%. The most inportant reason is undercapitalization (taking huge risks in relationto trading capital, something that leads to ruin). This is a great blog post on this matter: Account Undercapitalization is the Primary Cause For Trader Failures | Price Action Lab Blog -
This p-indicator appear to work well for timing very short-term reversals. Here a few more links from that website: A Rare Strong Signal from the p-Indicator | Price Action Lab Blog Reversal Signals from the p-Indicator | Price Action Lab Blog There is definitevely something there that is worth studying more and I am trying to figure out how to play such indicator. One thing that it is clear to me is that this is not a traditional indicator but more of a system of patterns backtested on each bar. Commets from anyone who knows or understand more about this will be appreciated.
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for swing and position trading in the order of 1 to 10 bars. What are the options that exclude use of common indicators (RSI, MA, MACD, etc)? Should be reasonably priced.
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Question on Kelly Formula : Positive Expectancy But...
gianno replied to choubix's topic in Risk & Money Management
You play with Kelly or Optimal-f, you play with fire. -
I am serious. Are you?
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How you you be so sure? I believe such programs exist. They are not advertized and they are not for sale. They anticipate large moves of capital in the next minutes to an hour with very high success rate. I've seen one at work but it was developed in-house. They work based on some math model.
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Any idea about the success rate of candlestick identification, in terms of win rate?
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Hello everyone. I trade futures and stocks for 5 years. I am a swing trader. I am looking for new ideas for trading systems. I am also looking for a very reliable broker for stocks and futures that offers checking and debit card. Good luck to all!