TRADEZILLA

Predictor, $50k/yr is VERY possible trading no more than 2-3 contracts on each set up with a 2pt stop, so a $10k account can accomplish this on ES, though $5k may be bit slim with potential drawdowns... However, I've yet to see an automated sytem accomplish this and def no vendors looking to make $$ from you advertising this.. PM me as I trade with a small skype group and you will see this done live and for free.. I'd like to see you perform this live as well.. Generally, I'm not a scalper though that's how I traded in the past, but will often exit my trades early when I see something that warrants an early exit, which turns some trades into scalps.. BTW-what's the fixation with that vendor with big claims? Many vendors have similar claims.. TZ

Thanks for the suggestion, but skype worked just fine today.. We were able to discuss so much more in real time, with analysis that cannot even be attempted real time if we had to type as we're timing our entries.. Thus far, the traders in the group all had nice contributions.. Today was a tough day to trade though with a tight range where the set ups were not attractive to me due to the R/R ratio and the range I saw.. There were many set ups to both the long and short side that were mentioned though passed over... From the very opening, my comments were that we were likely in a 2 sided market that can break either way but the greater probability was to the downside and that bias was maintained the whole day. "If we broke to the upside, its not likely to go far, therefore the better trade was to short the top of the range rather than to buy the bottom because the bigger move is likely to the downside.." Though I shorted 66.25 after the 67.50 area failed after lunch, I closed out of my position much too soon and didn't put much size behind it because there was HV support inside the range close within a few points from the entry point.,. big mistake....The take away is that you always have to give your bigger bias a chance to work out.. sometimes in an attempt to read price, we will read outselves out of an existing trade by being penny wise but dollar foolish....

Finally, there is also the C up or C down, which basically is a signal when an A up or A down fails and reversed into an A up or A down in the opposite direction.. This is an even more rare signal but often gives the best trades.. The rationale is that the market fooled most to position in the wrong direction and they're trapped and will need to get out eventually. When they do, they will drive price towards the opposite direction. The relationship between the piv and 3drp is important in market bias. The 3drp is often a reliable level to lean on as well.. Don't give up on ACD, you will find value in it. The other method I will recommend on the ES is volume profile.. Another method that will give you a good filter into the market..

Waynick5, I think the ACD method have value on ES though its meant for more volatile markets.. A up and A down is the first 20 min OR +- 3.5 points.. basically if the market stays outside the A level for 1/2 the OR time, the A up or A down is triggered and the bias is towards that direction. The A level and the OR then becomes levels to lean on towards that direction. The A levels can also be levels to fade depending on other bias factors.. There is also the relationship of the piv and 3 day rolling piv that gives additional bias and potential range.. Then there is a point factor that gives greater probability of the quality of the A up/down trade.. I like the ACD method on ES as it gives me additional levels and bias that is simple and reliable, but the A up/down is a rare signal so you will need another method in addition.. I like Volume Profile as well and I think the 2 methods are very complimentary... Ofcourse, there are other levels that are also tradable.. All I look for when I trade is a bias for market direction and levels to lean on.. the rest is how price tests those levels and etc....

BTW-my 3-7pt is the range of my ave trade, not the total gains of the trade...

WRB Trader, This room will be made small specifically for that purpose... I take on average 3-5 trades/day and most trade similar frequencies so there should be plenty of downtime to discuss the market and our rationale.. I don't expect others to show me their PNL and verify their executions in their accounts since we all trade different size accounts and that may be a bit private.. However, I don't mind showing my PNL and verify my daily trades but I don't want to be the only one doing it.. For me, I don't need to see your PNL to know if you're a skilled trader. I believe if we can just hear each other's entries and exits in real time, we can easily know in a very short period of time if we are amongst other skilled traders.. The goal of this room is not to call out trades for other traders..Its to keep each other sharp and continue to grow in our skills. In the current skype room I'm in, I'm amongst the only one giving my trades in real time and even giving detailed explanations of why I took the trade as well as how I formed my directional bias, but this is tiresome when its one sided and has to be typed... BTW-I'm not a scalper though I have nothing against it and was a consistent scalper at one point in the past . Currently, I average about 3-7 points when my trades work out.. Thx, TZ

Hi All, I'm looking to start a skype room for full time traders only. This room will be audio so nobody has to type. The goal is to have colleagues discuss the market in real time and have fun trading with others. About me, I'm a full time trader that has become consistently profitable almost everyday of the week. My primary vehicle is ES but I also trade TF and CL on occassions.. I don't use indicators at all, not even moving average. My trading method in a nut shell is a combination method of Market Profile and Mark Fisher ACD along with other levels I lean on, and I read price around my levels to decide if I want to lean on it or not.. I don't use indicators and trade levels.. I see the market as moving from level to level and I trade that way... I also call out my trades in real time as I place them so you will quickly know my track record both wins and losses and that I'm not BSing you when I tell you I'm consistently profitable.. This room will be limited to 5-10 persons max.. The only thing I ask is that you are a full time trader committed to trading for a living and that you're also a consistently profitable trader as I am along with another friend I trade with. I don't care what your methodology is as long as you're consistently profitable and that you're also willing to call out your trades in real time so we know you are where you say you are, a consistently profitable traders as we are. This room is not meant to train newbies but proficient traders only that wants company with other proficient traders while trading to keep each other sharp and grow as traders.. I have nothing against sharing with others as I am always willing to do so generously, but I was in a skype room where it got exhausting sharing with newbies that it really distracts from my trading, yet I enjoyed the company sharing successes and reading the market.. If you're interested in trading with other proficient traders and like this idea where the communication is audio in real time, please PM me.. Thx, TZ

Does anyone use Volume Profile on Thinkorswim? I have it set up but the navigation is not clear and their support center don't have answers.. IF you use it, what is your input?

Any new war stories trading the opening bell from anyone? I'd love to hear them.. Horace, how has your morning trades been?

I'll check it out..Thx!

Tradezilla, Actually, that's a very good idea; to trade the pre-market hours on the major report days. I do notice that in general, there's a lot less whip action during those hours.

Horace, I've been watching those levels and I think they're both reliable more often than not. The rest depends on other factors such as the way the price is responding to those levels in context with the larger times frame and the tone of the day... all other indicators I've looked at are usually late. I've been trying with just one contract and I like what I see so far. Phantom, I'll definitely check out the grains too.. There are several to choose from, which one do you recommend I begin with? I'll paper trade it on my TradeStation simulator to get a feel for it.. I believe there's mini soy, wheat and corn on TS. Thx, Tradezilla

I see those moves, though it often provides good moves, it often goes through slow directionless moves with very low volumes.. I suppose its following the foreign markets most of the time. You could be waiting a long time for 3-4 points whereas at the opening bell, you got a +3/2 reward/risk potential as long as you fin the right levels and your stops don't get hit more than twice.. I'll check it out but I will have to change my sleep schedule trading the evening currencies and the pre-NY opening..ha,

as well as pre market patterns most days

Horace, So the constant volume bars helped you see those levels? Did you take that ride up? If you did, how did you make that decision other than knowing that level was yesterday's close and a trendline? I imagine volume signals can be easily manipulated at the opening from bigger players to mislead.. How helpful do you consider those volume bars with your morning decision? I imagine the strength of the S/R levels along with morning sentiments that will determine most of the decision of the morning trade. Tradezilla

Phantom, Are you suggesting that - I should always first look for opportunities to position my trades prior to the opening? or - I should be trading this market in the pre-market hours where opportunities are better? Tradezilla

Hi Horace, I have not. I didn't think volume was actionable info at the opening bell because all the volume is just coming in and can change quickly during the volatility, but I'll look into it.. So far, major S/R and pre-market indications is all I look at.. Can you give me an example of how those volume bars helped you with your decision?

Yes, perhaps but I wouldn't stand in the way of the opening bell volumes though. I've placed trades in the pre-market before the opening bell if I think it clues me in to the opening and so far it has worked but I was biting my nails.. but I don't think today is one of those days.. I think you would just have to know the S/R levels and just take your shot at those levels and know your stops.. That's the only way I know how to do it, but that method seems to have good R/R, and more often than not, worthwhile trades..

Yesterday's close and the trend line I suppose is probably good enough to take trade with a stop 2 points below.. The R/R ratio was worth it if someone planned that trade in advance.. I think these morning trades and price extreme extensions are the best trades the SP futures offer.. for R/R, though on the extreme trade, I prefer to take my profits early..

A flag is forming right now that will likely have an impact on the after market.. so I imagine tomorrow should have another nice move at the opening bell..

Phantom, You're absolutely right.. That move began much earlier than the open with a nice set up in the pre-market. If you missed that move in the pre-market, how would anyone know to take that trade at the opening bell? since the pre market has low volumes and the opening bell has much higher volumes.. The only thing I see is the trend line that extended from pre-market but that would still be a gutsy move. I don't see how a trader would see a confirmation in time to see that trade, though spectacular...

This morning was a very tricky trade. The pre-opening looked like the market wants to go lower then on a dime exploded to the upside.. The only thing that clued us in was the pre-market support zone.. Did anyone catch that move? I missed the move down and up but did catch the 2 shorts of the day at 7:30am&9:45am PT for a 4 1/2/2 point move today for a total of 6 1/2. I normally would not have taken those shorts but my internal indicators showed a reversal.. I'm curious to hear from anyone that caught that move up because you are either have balls of steel or an incredible methodology.. Anyone care to offer their input?

The market is one big guessing game and we all do our best and have reasons why we guess the way we do.. What types of indications do you use to clue you in for your morning trades? In the past, I've always stayed away from the mornings because it is so volatile but I know somebody is capitalizing on that volatility.. and if you know how not just in theory but have been consistent at it, I'd like to know.. In return, I can share my method how I scalp the ES.. Scalping is a lot of hard work but the R/R decent and the overall net result is good..

I don't only trade like that only of course. I prepare with market internals the night before 30min chart evaluation S/R lines including pre-market where I decide my trades/stops Pre-market chart pattern Opening tones & etc.. I then put it all together and decide to trade or not.. My method has been working thus far but I don't want to get too happy before a major loss, since the run time is so short but it has def got me interested in some morning methods.. I'd like to hear from other traders that has been consistently profitable playing the morning moves.. Much thanks, Tradezilla

I mainly trade the e-mini after 11am/pt or 2pm/et and found that to be a better time fir directional moves. I've just started trading the mornings as well and found it more difficult but have been having some success trading in the direction of the opening bias and then reverse on the 1'st fade usually around 15 minute after the opening or so. I only do it on 1 contract but it has been working so far.. Am I approaching it correctly? Has anyone here been consistently success trading the opening bell? IF so, I'd like to hear about your approach to the opening bell.. Much thanks, Tradezilla