jpennybags

A link to a well presented and simple trading strategy utilizing range bars and entries on pullbacks. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/10206-trading-storm-methods-struggling-trader.html

We all come to this business with different skill sets, beliefs and constitutions; some helpful… some not. Consider the market(s) as a giant biosphere filled with myriad creatures each working out their evolution or extinction. The first 2 years is more about survival and evolving than making money. The goal is to become consistent as a predator, forager, or scavenger… what ever kind of creature you are (or are to become). My personal experience has been that before I could step forward, I had to step back to learn and/or unlearn notions or concepts. If we were born into trading by trader parents, and developed as traders in our formative years and had lived our lives in the biosphere, this "unlearning" would not be necessary. In my "other" life I was skilled at making something from nothing. I was well compensated for being able to absorb information on the fly, juggle multiple tasks, and force issues. As a trader only the 1st is truly helpful, the 2nd can be a distraction, and the 3rd is hazardous. I had things to unlearn, and unfortunately I have to get up every day and remind myself of the hazards of having too much going on, and forcing the issue. It gets easier with time. I've shared all this, just to make the point that sometimes it's not about what you learn but what you must unlearn that brings success… learn to love the struggle.

M, You are asking a question to which only you have the answer. Keep a few things in mind though. 1. 6 months is not a great deal of time, though if you are consistently on the wrong side of the trade it can feel like it. Much of what you need to learn comes with time at your trading desk, and getting a feel for the market. Consider your burn rate… can you make it another 12 months... do you need to scale back your position size? 2. No one is holding a gun to your head… you don't need to trade your hard earned cash to learn. Consider paper trading for the next few months. If you can't get profitable paper trading, you have no business trading live. Without money involved it then becomes just a game. It's much easier to learn while playing a game. 3. If you don't keep good records of your trades… start (screen prints for entry and exits, notes about why you are entering/exiting a trade, stop placement and movement). A daily trade journal is not a bad idea either. Good records will help you refine your skills when linked to a journal. A journal can also help with the mental side of the trade. 4. It has been my experience with any learning experience that progress and achievement comes in stages. You struggle, you learn, you get frustrated, and then it happens… you move to the next level. You get stuck there too… more struggle, more learning, more frustration. That's the way it is… if you're not enjoying it, you may be better off working for someone else. 5. If anyone told you this would be easy… they lied. Best of good fortunes either way.

Tams, Curiosity has gotten the best of me. Respectfully... why 102?

Even if the eurozone is able to get through this phase of their fiscal crisis, it may be "out of the frying pan and into the fire" for the world economy. There are problems with a growing asset bubble in China. The increased money supply that comes with money being moved into a hot economy has fueled a lot of poor quality investments and speculation (the money had to go somewhere). Attached is an interesting article about lending practices that have cropped up due to the recent credit tightening imposed by the government. I can't claim to understand the full impact of what it all means, but it doesn't sound good. Private Lending Frenzy Triggers Financial Crisis in China's Entrepreneurial Hub | China News | Epoch Times

Below is a link to the manifesto (for lack of a better term) of the "Occupy Wall Street" movement. I'll back out of the thread with a quote: In a revolution, as in a novel, the most difficult part to invent is the end. Alexis de Tocquevill Declaration of the Occupation of New York City | NYC General Assembly

There are always two sides to every story. Kind of looked like to me that the police were reinforcing a barricade that had been breached moments before the video was taken (the portion that was shown). Possibly someone on either side had forgotten the rules of engagement of peaceful protest… don't know… never will. There were too many officers in that area for just a standard situation… something must have happened. Also noticed that it was two officers that walked up on the barracade, and the second officer sprayed the crowd ("lone gunman"… lol). The second officer by all appearances was an older gentleman… probably "old school" and way fed up with the "hippy" protester nonsense. The first officer seemed a bit surprised by the actions of the second, as did all the officers standing there… all seemed a bit bewildered by the situation… but hey, what are you going to do… things get out of hand at protests. I did make note that it was "protest over" afterward. Not to say that they were treated fairly, but the it was definitely the end of the game. I'm never impressed when I see children in the crowd at these things… it lends credence to the notion that many idiots, deadbeats, and thrill seekers attend these things (who brings their children… are you kidding). Possibly that's why things get out of hand… folks not all that bright with divergent motivations… crowd mentality in full force… at the other end, a bunch of public employees just trying to do their jobs. Seems a bit silly to me. I've a great deal of respect and admiration for those in Egypt and in other countries. For any of these protesters to make reference to anything of the "arab spring"… nonsense. It fills me with a bit of despair to hear it. I would like to be able to expect more understanding from free men. Anyway, sorry the chicks got maced… I'm sure it hurt. Protests get out of hand sometimes, don't bring your kids.

Another side to the story: BBC financial expert Alessio Rastani: 'I'm an attention seeker not a trader' - Telegraph

SS, If you please... would you offer a translation of the poetry to the english language.

Hey... I started trading from a laptop; good, bad, or ugly... that's the way it was (for me). It wasn't a high speed super-lux model, just a standard run-o-the-mill laptop. I wouldn't recommend this to anyone, and if you can afford better... by all means, bring it. Hook up with a firm in your area, that will provide good service. Have them assemble a computer to your specs. Tell them exactly what you want to do and why. I'm sure you'll be pleased with the results. Asking the question... "what's the best"... seems to me you may end up with an unsatisfying result (there are many opinions for "best")... whatever suits "your" needs is "best".

Come to think of it... she looks a lot like an Ex-GF. I always kind of dug her rag-tag fashion sense... odd, but it turned me on. And yea, for the record... she was a terrorist (sorry to she she's learning to shoot).

I can draw a trend line anywhere... is it right, will it be right... don't know, don't care. I'm looking for the market to show me something that I'm looking for at that point in time. For me, and the way I trade..."my mean" is superfluous. If I were to spend a great deal of time considering it, what good would it do me in any practical sense... I'm looking for something that is "kinda right" based on price patterns. Consider someone who is a strictly a system trader who takes every signal... especially automated systems. Their "mean" should probably carry more weight (for them) than "my mean" does for me. By the way... what do you do at your mean? You haven't said.

Alright... the "each moment in time" suffices. In the end, talking about / concerning yourself with "mean" price is somewhat superfluous... to that I would agree.

At each price there is a whole spectrum of available ‘means’, not just one ‘the mean’ . I realize this not where you intended to take this thread, but as we are already here: I would agree with this statement if you had said "in each price pattern" instead of "at each price"... please explain.

OK... I've been sidetracked by my own density. After reading back through the thread (carefully) I understand what you are describing as "your mean". I do have a "mean" that is expressed by price extremes. This would be more of a band or area above and below a trend line of a price pattern. Price movement into this range, would trigger the possibility of a trade, but not initiate one. What I'm looking for is the market to indicate a reversal. once I've seen that, my entry is on the pullback from that reversal move. Sorry dude.

Alright... I make trades at the extremes from the mean (as defined by the market price)... or, I trade breakouts of the extremes. What is throwing me, is the term "at your mean". Price defines the mean, and I'm responding to price action as it corresponds to the mean. The market defines the mean price level... I have no say in the matter. There are strategies in use of the Andrews pitchfork which involve buying or selling the extremes, and scaling in or out of positions at the mean. Even this is defined by the market price and trend though (I don't use this method... it's just my understanding of one method that involves the mean). Not getting it... but, it wouldn't be the first time.

Hey guys… interesting discussion. What I have to add is more a question than a statement; please keep that in mind. My understanding of mean reversion and how it would be represented in market price on a chart would be more of a stair step pattern rather than a moving average pattern, and would represent a market consensus on price through each cycle of buying and selling (high to low - low to high… whatever the time frame). In a downtrend, selling momentum would carry the price below the mean - a measurement further below the mean than the high measurement was above it. In the next down leg, the mean would have been dragged lower due to the momentum from the previous move down. A market reversal and beginning of an uptrend would begin as buyers then moved the price measurement further above the mean than the measurement from last low. Subsequently, as buying momentum continues to move the price a greater measurement from the mean than the last swing low measurement the price continues higher until it can no longer move the price greater than the measurement from the last swing low… then the cycle begins again. My understanding… as price moves through cycles of high to low (low to high) the market consensus of the "mean" moves with the trend in a stair step fashion, with price falling through the mean, or rising above it. Someone square me away if the notion is ill conceived.

Gold: 1928.00 Silver: 54.00

Back in the days of the 8 to 5 workday, I got up very morning, gobbled down a breakfast, hit the shower, dressed, then off to work… in the time span of about 30 minutes. After all that ended, and I had a job where I didn't need to do these things (trading), I tended to slip into the "relaxed as you wanna be" mode. The problem with that is, there is a fine line between "relaxed as you wanna be" and being a slob… my trading reflected that. This is my routine now: Up at 5:00ish (no alarm) Prepare breakfast… usually something light... fruit and toast, but sometimes I go for the bacon and eggs. Read the morning news… while taking breakfast. Make the bed Do the morning dishes Crank up a pot of coffee and continue with the news Shower / shave Dress (the bathrobe is not allowed at the trading desk anymore) Power up the computer… off to a new workday (7:00 ish) This is a simple routine that I adopted, that prepares me for the day. It sets up a mental attitude that says: nothing will be rushed, no tasks will be dropped, everything in it's own space and time. The trick is: that during this "morning time", I understand that the routine was adopted for a reason, and that is in the back of my mind as I do these simple ordinary tasks… everything gets done in a purposeful and calm manner (just as I want my trading to be).

For anyone who was wondering... it's all going to be OK. (maybe)

Maelstrom - Thanks for sharing your ideas. Well done presentation as well. I trade a similar "swing/trend" system. I like the simplicity of your technique. It may just be a personality thing, but I found that slower charts worked best for me too. For me it seems that changing to a slow chart… simply put, was more relaxed. As you noted, and I would agree... my thought process is better with the slower chart. I also like that you don't use any other indicators. When I was "new" I tried everything… MACD, RSI, ADX, Bollinger (on and on)… it caused a lot of unnecessary second guessing for me. Everyone is different, and I'm sure these things work for others… whatever works for you is what you should be using. To someone "new"… if what you are doing is not working, please try it without the indicators… for some simple is better.

The game around the greens is one of finesse. I've seen those who can play a 9 iron from anywhere and do well… it's a matter of where you place the ball in your stance, speed and launch angle. Many adopt the 9 iron method; some are good at it… some aren't. Employing the 9 iron method works, it's easily taught, and you'll do no damage. The best I've seen, and the most fun to watch, will play any club in the bag… whatever works. This comes from experience, visualization and creativeness. The simple task of getting the ball on the green with as little backspin check as possible and rolling towards the hole, will reward you more often than not, and speaks volumes about your game. Keep the same swing tempo, use a different tool to allow for speed, distance, and launch angle… your chances of failure are reduced. You aren't changing so much… the tool is. For many, the 9 iron method is as close as it gets…I've never known anyone who was good at the short game who labored over what to do… they just step up and do it… regardless of the method. This may have been absolutely no help at all… sorry…. I love golf metaphors.

It's amusing to read this thread, along with a couple of PM's I've received. I thought that I was giving off some negative vibe that brought about a negative reaction in some people when I told them what I do for a living. Turns out it's typical... great... I feel better.

Let me begin with the statement… "I hate earnings season". My loss percentage always spikes, and the winners aren't all that great… it's been a break even proposition for me. The best strategy I've found to date has been to take the first two weeks off… close the books, and find something else to do. This works well for me, as I enjoy getting away; recharge the batteries, allow some "head" maintenance to occur… it's a good thing. As stated earlier, it has been a break even proposition for me… so why bother. 4 times a year at 2 weeks adds up to 8 weeks (of course)… I don't really need that much time off, or that much maintenance. The reason that I feel I should bother, is simple… I'd like to cut that 8 weeks down to 4. Earnings are coming up shortly. In reviewing my trades from past ES time frames, I get stopped out more often. My position sells off due to another company in the same sector reporting something in the conference call that the market doesn't like. Or some other reason… too many balls in the air, and too much information in the markets. I thought of just taking day trades, but I'm not really a day trader (day trading has been profitable for me, but I don't like being tied to the screen all day). I've had some limited success with increasing my stop margin, and decreasing position size. Anyone else had the same problem with ES… I'm ES challenged… looking for suggestions.

My benefit to society... I pay taxes, donate to the Salvation Army, and vote. I lend a hand to my neighbors when needed. The lawn gets mowed once a week. I don't abuse credit, and my bills get paid on time. The subject of "occupation" comes up in small talk occasionally. I'm at a loss to tell folks what I do sometimes. Many times I get the... "so then, you don't really have a job"... or worse yet... "yeah, right" (these are comments not expressed so much in words, but more in attitude). The other side of it is... "what's hot right now"... or they want to talk about some investment they made money on in the past... more often though... "the one that got away"... which is fine by me. When I was starting out, I gave the most socially acceptable answer that I could... "I'm between jobs right now". I still revert to that answer sometimes... depends on my mood, and whether or not I expect to see you again. It used to be so easy... "I'm a candle stick maker". Others can relate to having a job with a title, a boss, and a place to go every day... "candles are good... I like candles". Bottom line... I'm a leach, but I'm OK with that.