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jpennybags

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by jpennybags

  1. File for unemployment compensation... no. Seek a government bailout under the too big too fail rule... no. Go on a killing spree at the branch office... maybe? Move in with the kids... mmmm...No. Get a job at McDonalds... mmmm... No. Find a "sugar momma"... maybe... wait... mmmm... no... well maybe. Run for public office... yes... become a bum.
  2. Hello Anituchka... When searching for a stock to trade I use a search that will provide a combination of the following: 1. ATR of 2.0 or better (this will usually put you into the higher priced equities, but it will also list some stocks in the mid 30's) 2. Average daily volume >3 million shares... more is better, but I've found 3 million is sufficient... you never really know until you trade it live. I will then choose a price range that fits my account size and share count that I want to trade. After I have that pared down list, I would sort through these by looking at the charts... I use a 10M chart combined with a range bar chart but thats a personal preference. What I'm looking for is price action that hooks up well with my trading strategy. Usually this step will eliminate all but 2-3 choices. I'll then sim trade these until I find the one that agrees with me. This may seem like a lot of work, but I trade the same stock for weeks or months until the price or volume no longer gives me what I need. I periodically will do this type search just to keep a current "go to" list.
  3. In my mind, this is a simple business decision to take advantage of a preferable tax treatment, and make my operation more efficient. Most would find my trading style to be pedantic, and too workman like (boring), but it's a style that should be able to be transformed to trade other markets. I may be proven wrong, but so far I don't see any reason to abandon the project. As said earlier… I respect your opinion. If you have some insight as to why all this losing / unhappiness occurs, please offer it up… I'll listen.
  4. I have an ointment that will rid you of those afflictions.
  5. Thanks for the sound advice. Who is Al Brooks... never heard of the guy. I'm a quirky dude... scalping is the only way I've found to make a consistent buck. It may not work in the futures market, but I'm not such a hack (nor bleary eyed dreamer) that I'm going to get beat up too badly... no shame in running away.
  6. I'm quoting myself now, but a better explanation may be in order. When I say streaky… I go through periods that last 2 days where I don't book a loosing trade (8-10 trades). Commonly, I would be in error to make the assumption that I could extrapolate these results from such a small sampling of 3 weeks sim trading… or would I? I do find the results troubling though… it indicates to me that there may be periods that a trader may just need to sit out, or go find something else to trade… and these periods may be lengthy at times (haven't seen it yet). Individual stocks trade well worn paths throughout the day (each with a different character), and if you trade the same one for weeks or months at a time you will develop an edge. Part of the appeal for moving into futures (aside from the other advantages mentioned) was that I could trade the same thing day after day. My question was "Is this streaky nature inherent to futures trading?" I think from the replies I've received the answer would be yes. There are stocks that trade this way too… the one's I avoid. My trading system is "a one trick pony"… I'm successful due to good money management skills and knowing how to apply the method. When trading stocks I have periods where I string together an entire week of good days, but each day was W/L 4/1, 6/2 and the like. More commonly though it's 3 mediocre days (maybe an occasional loser or flat day) and 2 good days that make up my week. When I trade simulation, I trade it just as I would if it were real. I make that distinction, in that I'm not really testing a method, but testing myself in applying the method. When I hit that soft patch (2-3 losses), I recognize it as something that is outside the system parameters… I pull the plug and wait. This rarely happens when trading a stock… usually it trades within the parameters… no need to pull the plug. That said, I may have just happened in on an odd 3 weeks in the GC, and I'm making too much of it… In conclusion: zdo's reply struck a cord with me, as it's something I've had rolling around in my head for the past weeks. I'm a discretionary trader with a single simple method that works. Trading a futures market… a market that may have players that are in control for extended periods … I may need to develop several simple methods to compliment.
  7. zdo... brilliant. Not only have you provided a description of what I've experienced in the market, you've also confirmed what I new in the back of my mind, but couldn't put into words... nicely done. I get it... thank you. Please explain the question quoted above, and I'll let you go... thanks again.
  8. All… great stuff. The replies were complete and understandable so I don't really have any questions… much to consider though… thank you. Note to Tams: After some thoughtful consideration… good advice. This 3rd year has been such a joy compared to the 1st year. Taking the time to enjoy the success… yea, cool. I can pull money off the stock market every day… some days are better than others, but there are no bad days.
  9. (Ha!) I trust that question was not directed at me.
  10. I am profitable with stocks, but there was a time when I wasn't. Why do people climb mountains? Why does a husband try to argue with his wife? I turned down several good jobs (8 to 5 types) because I believed in trading. It would've been easier, safer, and more in line with the norm to have taken these jobs, but I wanted something else. I didn't understand stocks when I started, but now I do. I don't fully understand futures and how they trade... I will. Right now it's a wash, but I can see the potential... and there is no glitter in my eyes (maybe some, but I'm not blinded). The leverage, the preferable tax treatment (mostly the later) why not give it a shot? I will admit that I do not like the way futures trade... it's not like stocks, and I like trading stocks. We shall see, but like everything that has come before... I can see the potential. I deeply respect your opinion, but knucklehead that I am...
  11. Well... that's no help. Or maybe it is. Thanks anyway.
  12. I'm into my third year of trading. I've transitioned from a swing/momentum style to a shorter time frame… I would describe it as scalping (to be more accurate, I rarely hold a position for more than 30 minutes, and take 3 to 5 trades per session). I've had success in trading stocks with this system, but would like to move on to futures. After some experimentation, I've found that I like the way gold futures trade (GC). The price action hooks up well with my trading parameters, and I have a feel for how it trades. I've sim traded it for 3 weeks, and like where I'm at… feels right. I intend to start out with a single contract, but will eventually want to trade 3 (I don't need more). I begin trading (sim) at around 4:00 am (CT) to finish around 2-3 pm. I use attached orders with a 15T stop and a 30T target (this combination works well for me). What I would like to get some advice about: 1. Is there a better time frame to trade than what I mentioned above? 2. What I've noticed is that I will go through periods when I can do no wrong, but then something breaks down. These breaks only last for a few trades, and I could certainly live with the W/L percentage, but it troubles me as I haven't been able to pin down a change in market dynamics that causes the system failure. I didn't notice this when trading stocks… it was more give and take… not so streaky. Is this inherent to futures trading, or more specifically, metals futures? 3. From someone who has transitioned from stocks to futures… any pitfalls that I need to be aware of? Stupid things that I will do… because everybody does? Thanks for the help, anything else you would like to add would be welcome too.
  13. I spent the entire weekend watching the olympic games… I'm feeling a little guilty at accomplishing little else. It's been 100 plus degrees here for the past month, and with no rain, the city smells of hot asphalt… the best place to be is indoors out of the heat. Laying on the couch, nursing a scotch, and watching television… it's not normal weekend fare at my house, but I can slip into that mode with little fuss. I don't follow sports closely enough to have athletes that I would follow, so all the names are new to me and I don't care who wins. Olympics; good or bad? Cities spend millions on the bidding process alone; to host the olympic games costs billions. The host city is on the hook with a schedule and a deadline… cost overruns will escalate the costs by 50%. I find it hard to understand why these cities line up for the chance, but they do. From studies that I've read it's an iffy proposition that the total cost will be recouped by increased economic activity. There are long term benefits to be had, but if poorly planned and/or executed the opportunity may be squandered. The goal of regeneration of depressed areas is a good selling point, but the only true benefit comes with the improvement in infrastructure and access to the area (the sporting facilities usually go underutilized). Business investment will flow into an improved area such as this, but the timeline is uncertain, and it depends on the overall economy and the business cycle. These studies all estimate that hosting the olympic games is a net positive for the host city, but the gains aren't easily quantified and take years to play out. The bottom line is, that all this could've been achieved more efficiently by just spending the money on infrastructure. Often, infrastructure projects never get off the ground and can't be sold politically. The main benefit: it accomplishes a project on a time line, that once started, can't get sidelined for political reasons. Maybe that's good enough reason to host the olympics.
  14. I can understand why an HR department would seek out the best and the brightest academically, though from my experience it's a mixed bag. I've known those with several masters degrees who could not manage to assimilate in the workplace or through much of life. I think emotional intelligence is probably a greater factor in the ultimate success of any employee and/or business person. Those that can combine delayed gratification, hard work, and a balanced life always seem to do better in the long run. Also, those who live lives of self confidence tempered with humility seem to be able to attract others to them... important and helpful in achieving any goal. These are skill sets that are built from living a disciplined life, and having good role models as a child. Success seems to find these folks... with good reason... and justly so. Not sure that academics are that important, but you rarely find these skills in academic underachievers.
  15. Margin call... whaaa? I bought how many Legos? Wait... my dad is here... OK... so that wasn't me... that was my sister.,, her name is Denise.
  16. Kind of funny... I wasn't going to share, but WTF. I entered a long trade today by mistake... hit "buy" instead of "sell". I realized what I had done and tried to cancel the trade, but too late. The trade filled... it went so quickly against me; within .02 of my stop, reversed and went in my favor... I closed with $340... cool. A dumb ass moment that worked out (rare).
  17. Cool... and I always thought it was Google. Nice to see a post from you again.
  18. Too funny: "I'm not going to rob ya, and I don't want anything... I just haven't spoken to anyone all day".
  19. One of the adjustments I had to make when trading full time was not having anyone to talk to all day. I usually go to the grocer everyday… and I would catch myself striking up conversations with total strangers, chatting up the cashier, in a general sense… being affable. I'm a low key sort of person, and not someone who needs a lot of interaction to be happy, but when you go all day without speaking to someone… well, I then have something to say. It doesn't take me long to get it out of my system, and it's always been well received… so I guess it's not a problem… everyone just thinks I'm outgoing. There are friends and/or family that I see most every evening, but it's that initial release of getting out of the house and looking for some contact that I find most amusing. I hadn't thought about it for awhile, so possibly I've just become accustomed to it… yes, it was a major adjustment.
  20. AB (lightning bolt) hancer... been using the product for years: highly recommended.
  21. Stops are tools... use them wisely, they will serve you well. The markets are a place where you are free to do whatever you want... no one will stop you... or even try. You can crash your bike and suffer all the skinned knees and elbows that you can manage... ride it off the roof of your house... jump canyons with it. You're free to do as you please.
  22. Shortly after booking a tidy $670 in profits (around 20 minutes after the open) there came a knock at the front door. I have a door knocker and not a door bell, so this knock was recognizable as my neighbor who is an elderly woman that lives alone. For some reason she lifts the knocker then drops it rather than just rapping it… it makes a distinctive sound… knew it was her. She doesn't come by to chat; only when she needs something… so, I answered the door. "Good morning Margret how are you?"… after a quick glance across the street I knew why she was here. A sprinkler head had ruptured, and was shooting a stream of water in the air. No big deal, but she was concerned, and asked if I could come shut off the valve. The first reply that came to mind was: "it will shut itself off in 30 minutes… just let it go". I thought better of it though and said "OK" (because how long can it take). Well… due to the location of the shut-off valve (which Margret did not mention until we got there) I had to make it past the ruptured sprinkler head; only one way to get there and I was going to get wet. Now I know why she came to get me… she didn't want to get wet. I had a suspicion that the ISM number may print ugly… "get this thing done; get back to the desk". The valve was tight but after a couple of minutes I got it moving. As i was closing the valve, the result of which pressure was coming off at the sprinkler head (for some reason that I still haven't figured out) the flow of water then changed and was directed straight up my back… I got soaked. Margret wanted to chit-chat some and offered to get a towel… to which I declined the towel and hurried the conversation along, which ended with: "well, gotta go… bye". Then as I'm sloshing back to the house some ugliness crept in: "never… never answer the f***ing door during market hours, d***ass!". Well… the ISM number printed ugly… the market sold off… and I stood there watching the end of the move dripping dollars onto the floor. The only reason that I wasn't upset was that I had booked a nice trade earlier. I dried off, changed clothes, and cleaned up the floor. After stewing for a bit… I entered a short trade picked up $400; caught the reversal picked up $374; reversed again caught $530. A banner day… best in weeks. I was so amused with it all that I took the rest of the day off (before the averages caught up with me… no shame in running away). I'll be raising a toast to Margret this evening.
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