jpennybags

I first answered this with the assumption that the hidden side of the doors used the same symbols as the known side... each symbol used once. In that case the answer would be #3. That is not how the text reads though... there is no mention of what is on the hidden side or what symbols are used. The symbols may be entirely different symbols, or the symbols can be used more than once. If that is the case then all the doors must be opened.

Blue… Let me phrase the original question that I brought up in a more nuanced way. A little backfill may be necessary: As I sit at the trading desk watching the market move everyday, I form a mental moving average for different events that occur each day. It may have a look back period of 4-5 days. Each day, that day gets added to the mix and the trailing day gets dropped… much like a moving average. I don't do this with any purpose in mind, its simply something that happens because I have a human brain that keeps track of things. I think we are wired this way as a matter of survival… possibly from the hunter gatherer days, but that subject is for another day. This mental account or moving average runs in the background… barely audible, but it is there. What I've noticed is that there are times when patterns will form (at least to my fuzzy math / mental moving average accounting) that will play out over 3 to 4 days. As an example: End of session buying (selling) may increase in strength over a period of days. These events are short term, the pattern disappears, and it's back to randomness. That was my reason behind the question posed about using a shorter data period. Possibly, with increased granularity in the data, and a shorter look back period, patterns may evolve against the background of what could be termed "normal" randomness. How useful this would be depends on one's methods. Personally, I'm fine with the mental MA running in the background (it's easily ignored). The patterns that I speak of may just be part of a random distribution, much like a coin toss that turns up 9 heads in a row if tossed 100 times… don't know. It seems that there is more involved with price movement during the day than a simple coin toss though… that may just be my fuzzy math working again.

Hey Blue... I'm curious as to your opinion of using a smaller sample size... say a running 6-8 day period (rather than data for an entire year). The first thought that crossed my mind when considering the original post was that a shorter sample period may be more useful to a day trader. Not trying to side track your project, but just wanted to raise the question... see what you thought.

I would say the smaller of the two hospitals due to the smaller sample size. By the way... a link to a world map that shows the primary sex ratio (ratio at birth) for each country. Just as a matter of interest, or for those that harbor misconceptions about our 3rd world brothers and sisters: Worldwide Human Sex Ratio at Birth

Open an account that supports SIM trading... about as free as it gets. Nothing is free in this business... or in any other business. Good fortune to you.

Hello Zack... Put all of your focus into your studies. You are going to need the non-finance stuff too... the better your transcript prints, the better your chances to find employment. In reading between the lines, you sound like a young man (early 20's)... the only "moves" you are going to make in the markets are the wrong ones. If you have an interest in trading (or investing), be patient... you have plenty of time. Watch the markets for now... you'll learn more by simply observing than trying to trade.

Personally, I have a very short social candle... burns bright for a time, but not a long time. My preference is found in being alone, but I'm never lonely or bored. I've been this way from childhood. In that regard, I'm a natural for this business. When I took up trading full time, I did have to make some adjustments, as my previous career was one that required a lot of interaction throughout the day. I missed the give and take that goes on when working with others and I found a great deal of satisfaction in being part of a team... loved my job. One of the amusing things that I noticed after a few months was that I was more willing to strike up conversations with total strangers. I found this amusing as I had never been one to do that. So, in some regards I've become slightly more affable. It doesn't take me long to get my "people fix" for the day; a trip to the grocer usually does it. If I feel the need for more there is a local pub that I frequent. I speak with family and friends on a daily basis, and make it a priority to have dinner out with someone once a week. I'm completing my 3rd year trading full time, and seem to have adapted to it. To me, the freedom that trading affords is the main draw; don't really care about getting rich. I've usually dragged off what I need by lunch time... close the books... get my people fix for the day... I'm good.

My bad days are not all that bad anymore. Even on a day where I'm not trading well I manage to drag off something or finish flat (ish)… no real damage done. It wasn't always that way and I'm not so far removed that I can't easily recall the pain. Finishing (beginning) emotionally flat on the day is a good skill to learn. It may just be my personality, but I know that after a large day, I'm going to be looking for follow through on the next day. Likewise; or possibly just the opposite, on a "bad" day I'm going to follow on the next day looking to make up lost ground. There are some aspects of "good" and "bad" fortune that forms any trading day… it's not all you… so, get over yourself. I try not to put too much emphasis on the day-to-day efforts, but more emphasis on the longer term results. Trading is a large part of my life… my previous career was as well. When working for a salary, you can have a bad day and still come away with a paycheck (one of the best things about having an employer). Trading is no different… you're going to turn in a bad performance once in a while… you pay. Not understanding the game or getting bent out of shape over a bad day seems unrealistic to me. Soak your head… throw stuff… break stuff… go work out… get over it. My method is to pour a double scotch… then sip and slip out of the day… but I do that on the good days too (ha).

Hook me up with the 96%... 16 squares.

I voted to answer in the thread. After a really good day... I smile and say it could've been different. After a really bad day... I smile and say it could've been different (although it takes longer to come to a smile... losing sucks). This is a good business if you can keep things in perspective... it comes and it goes... give and take... learning from the losers and recalling the winners (actually learning from the winners too, but you learn about sucess from the losers). I rarely have bad days, and it usually doesn't come from trading.

I have never been to Spain... bull leaping... who knew? Key a search for "recortadores" to see videos.

Yea... better off not trying to talk shop with folks not in the business... eyes will glaze over... you've lost them inside of 30 seconds (they're just being polite after that... or worse, they're quoting trading axioms that they've heard in the past... like they understand). Just smile and say: "it's going great"... Welcome to the forum.

I stumbled across this while reading the news this morning. Not really a cool toy such as shown previously, but I found it interesting. Human powered helicopter challenge: Straight Up Difficult : NPR

Amusing... regardless of which side of the fence you're on.

Leading indicators: retail sales, new business startups, stock market, manufacturing activity, inventory levels, unemployment numbers, building permits and starts. footprint: Apple computer has a large market footprint. Probably a general term best taken in context. If you enjoy thinking about such things how could it be a ridiculous amount of time... "ponder on dude".

If I left the impression that "good" is good enough... not my thinking at all. You don't get to be "good" by accepting the notion that "it's good enough". My point was that you can mess up a good thing by laboring over "mistakes... losses... and imperfections". The ills of perfection... perfection is just a perception of one thing compared to another. In the end what you will be pursuing is a perception... not perfection. What you may lose in that pursuit is the joy that comes from living in the moment... which is perfection. I kind of feel the same way about the word "greatness", but I suppose we must call it something... alas, the limitation of words.

You can can strive for the "great trader" benchmark, but being a "good trader" will make a living for you. Beware the ills of perfection.

"go home Yankee"... gotta love that. Come to think of it though; not the first time those words were spoken.

I have scoured the web looking for data on the number of times that futures trading has been halted by CME. There must be some record of the day, time, market, and reason for each occurrence... tried the CME group website... came up empty. Any suggestions? Thanks.

We all like Mondays... back to trading after 2 whole days.

I keep what I consider to be very extensive records of my trading activity, and I make it a priority to review these records periodically. What I've found is that if there is any one day during the week that I'm prone to struggle, it is on Monday (Wednesday and Thursday tie for the best day of the week). Stage actors speak of it as "the butterflies"... nervous anticipation. Once the words start to flow, you settle in to do the task at hand which is what you've prepared for. I think a certain level of nervous energy is essential to the task of stepping into "the unknown", but this nervous energy seems to be elevated on Monday morning (personally speaking). Monday should be no different than any other day of the week. Every day begins with an opening trade... the words start to flow, and it's on to the task at hand. I think it's the way our week is structured that make Monday's different. I also have observed a way of thinking that places importance on the profits logged at the end of the week... as if it where a conclusion to some performance bench mark. Monday then becomes the start of something new rather than a simple continuation from Friday. Often my trades taken on Monday mornings are not the crispest of entries. It may be that a couple of days off has dulled me a bit, but I think it's more a matter of wanting to get started and release that nervous energy.

The term "scalp" gets misused a lot, and I'm misusing it here, but I've not found a better term for it: 3 - 30 minutes in the market on any trade ("extremely short term swing/momentum trader"). Not saying that's a good thing for everyone, but it works for me. Honestly, if I could trade another way; I would. No complaints though... it's something I understand.

I know exactly what I would do: I would wait for a pullback… because "this market has run too far, too fast; can't keep going up". After 5 days of the market moving up, I would relent to the "damn fools" that keep buying this nonsense. On day 6 I would hunker down with all I could manage… because "there's no time like the present"… On day 7 the "damn fools" would become circumspect on their designs, and the market would sell off. On the night of day 9 I would have a bad dream, to wake up the next morning believing in nothing at all (forgetting that I had the "all in trade" from the future), but my own misfortune. Day 10... unwind my position. Day 11 watching the market fall a bit further, I would be sitting in a bit of a stupor and counting my blessings for cutting my losses early (not early enough)… a survivor (just barely). Day 12 the market would take off on a "terror filled short covering rally" that would unbelievably continue (because of the "damn fools"). This would last until 9/25 (to which I would consider entering again… because "such a strong move must mean something"). This is why I scalp with attached orders… I'm my own worst enemy.

I've found that I'm mentally comfortable with taking a $200 loss on a failed trade. If I need to buy a wider stop, I decrease the position size. I don't have an explanation for why the number is $200... just a mental thing.

Congratulations to team GB and the city of London for hosting The Olympics. The weather held... great performances all around... world records broken... couldn't have been better... You'll return to life as usual over the next few weeks, but a generation of young people has been witness to greatness. Thank you for hosting.