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jpennybags

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by jpennybags

  1. jpennybags
    Maybe Dos Equis will come up with a new add campaign: "The most interesting woman in the world". I would bet that she has a few wrinkles...and: If I were in charge of the campaign, the first person I would go for would be (though she has no wrinkles... yet): Magali Amadei.... a woman entering her forties.
  2. jpennybags
    Cokie Roberts would be interesting to talk to for an afternoon... history, world events. I think she would grow weary of talking to an idiot like me though (about 15 minutes).
  3. jpennybags
    I think I better understand... thank you for the clarification. I don't make use of indicators to place trades, so sharing my limited knowledge would be of little help to anyone. I was merely welcoming Gannfan1 to the forum. It's amusing... "killing snakes" has a completely different meaning for me. To "kill snakes" is to resolve pesky problems that arise. If I said: "I spent the day killing snakes"... it would mean that I spent the day resolving problems and got little else accomplished.
  4. jpennybags
    Speaking of killing snakes... If you have something to say, why don't you write in a clear manner? If you are trying to make a statement... make one; no one can read you clearly otherwise.
  5. jpennybags
    Welcome to the forum... As I understand it, the Falcon7 trading platform is widely used by traders in India and is a robust software. This forum has a great deal of information concerning the use of various indicators. Please make use of the "Advanced Search" to find specific information. Best of good fortunes to you.
  6. jpennybags

    RISK

    jpennybags replied to Mysticforex's topic in Forex

    Ha! "Always wear clean underwear... cause you never know what will happen".
  7. jpennybags
    I'm really liking this story... girl scout sets up cookie sales to medical marijuana patients. You go, business girl! Why one Girl Scout is selling cookies outside a pot clinic - CBS News
  8. jpennybags

    RISK

    jpennybags replied to Mysticforex's topic in Forex

    I think both should share equal weight. Calculating risk has many factors: W/L ratio, time of day, trend vs counter trend, the market traded... and so on. Each time I enter a trade it's at a R/R of 1/1 and roughly 6% of my account. I manage risk through entries, exits, and price action... the W/L ratio is high and I rarely get tagged for a full stop. In trading there are no absolutes. Wait... there is one: don't lose money.
  9. jpennybags
    If your trading platform supports it, pull up a tick or volume chart and observe how price action supports (or doesn't support) a countertrend trade. Counter trend trades can make for a good day in the aggregate, but it's not something that I would use as a "bread and butter" trading method. Trading counter trend is a riskier trade, and Keltner bands are kind of a "blind faith" way of trading (with nothing else to support it).
  10. jpennybags
    Can't disagree with that. I take counter trend trades every day, but my bias is with the trend. I will bail on a counter trend trade in the blink of an eye... show me a single doji bar and I'm gone. I think in a general sense trading with the trend is good advice... even from a scalpers perspective. I'd rather sell the top of a Keltner band in a downturn, than buy the bottom of the band. It just seems that the odds stack up better. I would also add as an addendum... the reason I take counter trend trades is sometimes I'm feeling it. Don't know... not opposed to it... just don't make a living of it.
  11. jpennybags
    Counter trend trading can be a difficult road to take. Price action will always try to revert during a trend, but these moves most commonly fail... until they don't. The moves are almost always short lived... until they aren't. In my opinion, it's always best to trade with the prevailing trend, then wait for price action to signal that the trend has changed before taking a trade... always trading with trend. I use a Chande Momentum Oscillator with a 5R chart. It seems to be a good cautionary indicator for when the move is losing momentum. That said, the market is never truly overbought or oversold... any indicator that you use must be taken into context of current price action.
  12. jpennybags
    Every time I read a post like this, the first question that comes to mind is: "why are you trading live instead of simulation"? A day trader with discipline can make money with a win rate of 40%... it gets progressively harder the lower that number gets. Trend traders can make money with a low win rate, due to the size of the winners, but that type of trading is for much longer time frames. I don't care what someone else does with their money... 25K may be pocket change for you... it's none of my business. For most of us, puking up 25K would hurt. Switch over to simulation until you can get profitable.
  13. jpennybags
    Ha... agreed! The only thing that the urine stained and the bluetooth folks have in common is that they both think the voices in their heads (and the ensuing conversation) is truly important, and of great meaning.
  14. jpennybags
    I enter my passwords in a spreadsheet that is stored on a flash drive that I use as a key fob. The spreadsheet is password protected as well. I'm always mildly amused when I see someone with a bluetooth headset talking on the phone. It seems so much like they are talking to themselves... just yammering away. Before that technology became available, people who did that were usually sporting urine stained clothes and living on the street... always makes me grin.
  15. jpennybags
    I would agree... "the taper" makes no difference. Everyone has known that the taper was coming, evident and necessary (actually relieved that it happened). I watched the tepid low volume buying on Friday afternoon... no sellers. Interesting to see how next week shapes up. I think we will have some contention at higher levels (what else is new... that's what makes a market).
  16. jpennybags
    Help me out... like I need it (ha). Certainly there was a technical bounce due. It may well be that this is not a correction but just another BTFD situation (it's really too soon to call this a correction). I trade the TF contract. It was clear that the sell side was exhausted (for a time). I'm sure that was evident in the ES and the YM as well. The TF buy side was not impressive... I would've liked to have seen it trade into the 1117 area (from a technical perspective, it was lack luster). The YM and the ES were a little more aggressive. I must say... I don't know (nothing new for me). What do you think... "a correction" is in the works, or do we turn and go higher? I'll even give you an out... "does it matter?"
  17. jpennybags
    "Bizzaro World"... trade it as it happens. Had a good day today (a good week actually)... nice to see volatility back.
  18. jpennybags
    I think the market read is that the FED is committed to the taper. If it were a huge miss... say like December... that may drive that kind of speculation (who knows). As usual, the market would have to bring on some more misery to get the point across. Any miss on the number (seems to me) would weigh in for the sell side.
  19. jpennybags
    Technically, the market is due an oversold bounce. A beat on the NFP would certainly fuel that. If one trusts the ADP numbers, there may be some question if a beat on the NFP is likely. If market expectations are correct and the number comes in at 175 - 180K that is still just a bandaid for the horrid number in December, but it would still allow the FED to continue the reduction in QE. I don't think that NFP or QE is what is driving this correction. I would also think that a rally on an NFP beat will get sold in the following week. I love trading to the downside, it may just be that's my bias raising it's ugly head (Ha!). We shall see. As always, my plan is to play it as it comes... 5 minutes at a time.
  20. jpennybags
    A backup generator is standard issue for anyone living outside the metro areas. In Kansas we don't have our own weather... we get other people's weather. For a month during the summer it's too damn hot, and for a month during the winter it's too damn cold. You can expect a bit of everything. Tornados, microbursts, freezing rain, drifting snow, blistering hot asphalt melting heat. Sunsets, sunrises, and a gentle and subtle beauty balances the scales... it's home for me. I would have to get much larger to afford the yacht and the life at sea... dare to dream. I suppose that once you've reached that place... internet connections are of little concern. It would be cool.
  21. jpennybags
    Mystic... do you ever trade from your boat? I gave that some thought... that would be "James Bond" kind of cool. Imagine a yacht cruising the coastline... sunshine, fresh sea air.
  22. jpennybags
    Is there any way to monitor the speed and quality of data transmission? I suppose that there may be software available that runs in the background that would ping a server site every few seconds to monitor data transmission.
  23. jpennybags
    There is a lake side property that I am considering purchasing. The lake is about 40 miles out from the city and my current residence. There is no cable access. Ideally, I would like to make the place my full time residence and sell my house in the city. I have a couple of options: rent office space (20 miles from the lake), and commute… or satellite internet access. I'm curious if anyone has tried satellite internet for trading and how well it worked. Thanks.
  24. jpennybags
    From everything I've read... the market believes that the $10B reduction is a lock. The FED has already stated that interest rates will remain low for some time to come (100 years... don't know... don't care). It's all well within guidance. How the FED unwinds is still up in the air... they don't know as yet. Calm down... wait and see... play it as it comes.
  25. jpennybags
    Practice the art of quiet observation. I've learned more (and continue to learn) from watching the market trade than from any number of books that I've read.
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