shooly76

I have a decent fundamental understanding of the fx market. however.. I learned.. (learning) how to trade futures..not doing well currently w my live acct. anyhow thats beside the point. I would like to know is the fx market better suited for a trend trader than emini index futures and CL futures? I would think that it is.. due to the massive daily volume compared to futures daily volume. basically..will I see more trend signal entry opportunities (intraday) in fx market? less whipsaws? because lately Ive been trading morning session eminis and and crude.. and I see little to no entry signals and the ones I take are mostly all whipsaws! I'll be up 10-12 ticks..then price will go against me and I get stopped out. plus the commissions are killing me at over $5 per trade. one exception that I saw recently was a huge uptrend in CL early last week..of course I could not trade that day..it was like a 90 tick move up! but for the most part CL has a lot of whipsaws..and the risk is too much for me due to the quick price moves and range.. I set my stop at 10 ticks..and this seems to be too small. anyway..back to the topic at hand: which currency pairs are more suited for the intraday trend trader? I know this topic is highly subjective, but I am looking into other options..just trying to get some good input..thanks in advance

this pic was before I included MACD in my system

thanks..just looking at different approaches to make sure my current system is a good one.. or..if I need to change it a bit. the system I was (am) using is a trend following system..but a much shorter time frame (233 and 610 tick chart). but I find myself getting stopped out a lot lately (live acct)..and figured I may need to step back and make some minor changes. I use MACD and momentum, BBs, and a 14 period EMA on top of the BBs.. and ATR stop dots (red and blue) these keep me in a trade, and also help to signal long or short. when all of this is in agreement, I enter. I mean I was making good trades on my sim acct, but now Im struggling. but I also know that I can have 10+ losers in a row..evn w a good system..and still be profitable. its the large winners I seem to miss out on lately. I think my main problem is exiting a trade...I will stay in for too long..then the market goes against me. I have included a pic of what good trade is for me (sim)..but I just cant seem to get these since I have gone live..I think it has to do w my emotions and anxiety...I get too anxious to make profits..then I end up choosing bad set-ups..but I dont know..I think it also has to do w me missing good set ups//then going for something after the good set up has already happened.

what is the best instrument for a 30 min chart...as a trend follower? I like to start watching about an hour before open (ex.. ES)..is this a good indication of where the price is heading for the day? or should I wait until after market open? never traded 30 min chart..only shorter time frames and tick charts..but Im thinking I will have much less 'noise' trading a 30 min chart. of course this means setting a larger stop.. ie.. more risk..but potentially a larger profit

thanks based on your post..and w out really crunching any numbers on my spreadsheet, I quickly came up w a 'round about' expectancy of 2.00 I always risk $100 per trade. 100/47= 2.12 avg winner $200 per trade. 200/47= 4.25 expectancy 4.25/2.12=2.00 seems close to my actual profit factor number of 2.23 on NT7 spreadsheet

Ive been reading van k tharp's books lately and I need to know the expectancy of my system..or at least a better idea of it than I currently have. I see in his books that he states to determine avg profit or loss per trade and dividing it by by avg loss (for existing systems that did not previously calcuate R multiple distribution for each trade). however Im having trouble figuring this out on NT7 acct performance spreadsheet. here are the important numbers for one month (intraday) 47 trades (sim) from 1-22-13 to 2-22-13: Percent profitable: 53.19% Profit factor: 2.23 Drawdown: -0.43 Avg winning trade: 0.12% Avg losing trade: -0.07% Avg win/loss ratio: 1.86 can anyone here please figure out the expectancy of my system with the above figures based on Tharpe's teachings? for some reason I cannot figure it out, however, I do know all of my losses are 1R or less.. and most of my winning trades (on avg) are between 2R-3R gain. is my expectancy 1.86? is the avg win/loss ratio the same thing as Tharpe's expectancy rating?

Im finally getting ready to start trading a live acct. I have been studying and learning for about 4 years and I am now ready to go live. I have been fine tuning my system for about 3 months. I will start out trading 1 contract.. (add 1 ct per every $5000 gained). my goal is $2000 net profit, or about 200 net ticks per month. I trade intraday.. TF, CL, GC, and 6J.. I use tick charts...144, 233, and 610. my system is an overall winning sytem, so my question is this: should I trade every set up I see, or trade more conservatively..ie..stay out after I net 20-40 ticks...per day? with this being said, should I stay out if I meet my monthly goals? or keep trading my set-ups evenafter monthly goals are met? I figure if I meet my monthly goal of $2000 per contract per month, then I should stay out, thus limiting my risk even further. just would like to know other traders thoughts on this particular aspect of money management. thanks in advance

ok..just saw the post about BBs..well I must disagree to a slight extent..these are not only to see the squeeze, or the pinch (consolidation)..but IMHO, there is no better indicator of supp/res...other than these bands...(+/-) standard deviation is the ultimate mathematical supp/res indicator..and furthermore.. the BBs also show the SMA.....20 period SMA... the 20/2 BB is near 'perfect' for intraday positions.. ..just sayin..for anyone who is trying to figure out supp/res areas..all you hvta do is look at the appropriate time frame BBs for that.. ..and sorry to get off subject... ..sorry phantom.. just thought I needed to clear this up a bit...I dont want to take away from the important content of this thread...but I do think that many do not undersstand that the BBs are crucial for finding important supp/res price areas...

..had I taken that sim trade (I was only watching ES at the time this occurred)..I wouldve likey let it run for 70 ticks up...$700 in a 1/2 hour on a single contract! this is what I would call a supreme trade! thanks again, phantom!

just to be clear, when I set my target it wasnt really a relative low...it was near the SMA.. that price occurred around 2:30pm EST..but if the trend continues, which it is as of right now, new target would be at a relative low of the day session. BTW..price is going back down, but I had walk dog, so I missed my entry..

I just hit for another 8 ticks on retracement..barely got in on time though because I was posting here..lol..lets see if it continues downward..

here is another example using phantom's methodology.. this is a consolidation breakout trade... (GC) COMEX GOLD 10 min chart..just made this sim trade for 29 ticks. sometimes gold has some nice moves after 7-8pm EST. the red, full bodied bear candle was my signal.. because the price broke the small consolidation range, and then the preceeding bear hammer which CLOSED below the range was my trigger. I placed my target near a previous 'relative' low from the day session. my risk was also completely taken out of this as well..I moved my stop to break even when I reached 15 ticks..however, this is subjective, and I have no set rules for moving my stop. this could be a nice mini trend, so maybe tonite I will catch a retracement trade and then a continuation back down..

thanks for all the great info and examples, phantom! I was looking back on today's 10 min TF chart a few minutes ago, and I saw what looked like a nice price rejection trade. what do you think, phantom?

is there a margin requirement for futures options? or is it just the amount that one puts up for cost premium of calls and puts? please list any good recourses as well..Im interested in simply speculating...buying and selling calls and puts..and selling and buying..

I would like to swing trade corn futures..where do I begin? larry williams had a great int in the recent stocks and comm mag..very insightful. I would like to hold a contract for about 10-15 days...or until profit target reached. how do I do this on ninja trader? Im used to day trading on much smaller time frame charts like 5 and 10 min. so Im unfamiliar w trading a daily, or weekly chart... as far as putting sell/ buy and stop orders in. what is the best time frame to look at if Im short term swing trading? daily charts? my initial capital only $6000, it is $2360 to hold a corn contract..so is swing trading even feasible w this limimited capital? I will start with only a single contract and hold until target or stop is hit

I use NT7...5,10, and 3 min charts...I have an ASUS laptop w an intel dual core processor 2.20 ghz processor and 3 gigs of RAM whenever I am in a trade I use a bar timer, and after the timer hits zero, it always takes like 10-60 seconds for the timer to start counting down again. is this lag due to my slow laptop? I am looking at laptop w an i5 processor w 4 gigs of DDR3 RAM...will I still have this lag problem w new, faster machine?

75% profitable from 10-13 to 10-31...only like 5-6 trades though.. but still gives me hope. just quit job that was taking all my spare time up. so now I am working less hours at another job so Ill be able to sim trade 3-4 nights/ week. Id like to still be 75% through december, then I think I will be ready to go live again. patience, patience, patience!

Spearpoint- which MAs do you use along w BBs? do you enter on the 3 min chart after weekly, daily, 10 min are in agreement?

forgot to add note about patience...I started looking at chart around 9pm... potential long trade/reversal around 9:30pm EST. so I was watching this chart (and checking Traders Lab lol) for over 3 hrs..almost fell asleep a couple of times at computer..haha.

here is another 10 min chart pic of a 6E sim trade 2 for 2..starting to like my new strategy and new found patience!

I think price did go up like 9-10+ ticks after 10 tick target was hit. Ive been mostly looking for reversals in my new strategy. once price closes above/below my trendline and EMA, I look for entry..but on the 10 min chart price must also break 3-4 hr high/low...there are other rules as well..but nothing set in stone yet...still working on it

wow..thanks for the awesome replies! I have decided to rework strategy and sim trade for a few weeks..or until I feel comfortable going live again. I have been thinking and looking at charts as much as possible fior set-ups. and I think one of my biggest problems is PATIENCE! I really need to just sit and watch for like 2-4 hours/night on avg. I wasnt doing this before..half the time I would spend 1/2 hr-1 hr and find something that I thought was a good set up but really didnt analyze properly and w patience. here is a screen shot of last nights sim trade of 6E 10 min chart (I used 2 min and 60 min for guidance)...

thanks chippy- is the electronic session price action comparable to the pit session? seems to me that it is not...but NT7 w/ CQG data feed does not provide data for overnight session..probably have to pay extra for it..

thanks tradewinds...no..I havent backtested yet, but honestly there may be too many variables to backtest it. also..Im having trouble w the NT7 backtesting. but thats another story.. I have been trading at night (EST) due to new job, I seemed to be doing much better w my original strategy trading daytime hours. but now I am trading CL and 6E..much less forgiving than TF, NQ, and YM. I also think this is part of the problem...I had to change my strategy due to different trading hours and markets. so maybe I need to try my original strategy again at a different time of night..time to sim trade again.. I also had another thought...ZC (corn) seems to be trending nicely, so I actually may try putting a sim order in before I leave for work in the AM and just leave computer unattended (w a stop-loss and target in place of course)..lol. I would love to be able to trade (and actually watch) this market on like a 2-3 min chart, but NT7 w/ CQG data feed for ZC is only active from something like 9am-2:15pm EST..and Im at work during this time.

wow..thanks for all of the replies! mucho appreciated! I do have specific rules for like 3 different strategies (each depending on particular market conditions and potential set-ups). but still having trouble..Ive actually been thinking about doing the opposite..IOW..when there is a long set-up, go short..and vice versa..lol. another problem Im having lately is that I now have to trade at night (EST)..due to new job sked..I was having more success trading TF, NQ and YM between 10am-3pm EST...the night markets (6E, CL) seem to be harder to find trends, reversals...etc.. basically had tweak trend following strategy, and now almost scalping 2-4 ticks from some trades..but commisions too high for that..