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DionysusToast
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Everything posted by DionysusToast
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Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor
DionysusToast replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Commercial Content
Agreed - it's a big world indeed. You don't need to mention the company name, if you keep saying "my software does xxx" and have a vendor badge under your id, it doesn't take a rocket scientist. Ok - that's a bit much - me copy you? You started developing your software a little over a year ago - just after version 1 of Depth & Sales was released. As you know that highlighting was in version 3, which admittedly is not on the videos on my site as they are all version 1. Still my V3 preceeds your website. What did I do - sneak into your bedroom & take a look??? Thing is - that "I didn't eat the biscuits" tact will only work if you don't leave a trail of breadcrumbs. Like your product in October: The product you based it on: And your product now. I take it as a compliment to be honest but next time - FFS pick your own colors....:doh: Well, if you can't trade, you really shouldn't be offering people mentorships, should you? Plus, all your posts on here might give people you understand what you are talking about. Heaven forbid someone might actually put money on one of your posts. Anyway, the bottom line is that if you can't trade, then you are unlikely to produce anything meaningful for those that can. As for your advanced time & sales - very good, not a copy (like the color scheme), just an idea that popped into your head atter looking at my web site... Anyway - I am going to give you YOUR lesson 1 in my next post -
Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor
DionysusToast replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Commercial Content
Well - he hadn't copied the Jigsaw Reconstructed Tape or Summary Tape yet, so he needed to add that one in! I'm only amazed it took so long. What the market place has now is: 1 Aggregated Time & Sales - Big Mike Trading forum (free tool) 2 Reconstructed Tape - Jigsaw, the idea behind (1) above 3 Summary Tape - Jigsaw - shows trades @ bid/offer until bid/offer changes 4 Sierra Charts - consolidates trades with same price & time stamp (optional) 5 I am sure there are others too. Anyway - Vive la revolution! -
Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor
DionysusToast replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Commercial Content
Actually, if you want to have this conversation, you can be specific about it. No need to say "some vendors". Your software is based on the Jigsaw product, right down to the color scheme, including the way you color the trades at the inside bid/offer. This is not a coincidence. There is plenty of room in this space for different products. Still, when someone shows their hand by copying you right down to the color scheme, you then have to understand that such people will be looking to copy other things you do. Such is life. I will therefore be a bit guarded about what I discuss here. It's just common sense. As we are both in the same game, we should be honest at least with ourselves. Your posts on here are nothing but an advertisement for your software. That is the whole point, right? Let's not consider our audience naive. You would do well not to underestimate the readership. In terms of real time analysis "it migh go up or it might go down" isn't really fitting in the category of "real time analysis". The stuff about "buy programs hitting in here" is really a flashy way of saying "market is moving up". If you can't blind them with science, baffle them with BS. It's not really analysis as much as it is an attempt to impress people. I will agree that you added features that Jigsaw doesn't have and certainly doesn't want or need. That is not our thing. There's lots of unique products out there and a handful of useful ones. The best thing to do in order to sort this out is to do some live trade videos - follow my lead on that if you like. I will add more of the same, simply recording whilst I trade. It is almost impossible to teach anything useful on reading order flow using static media such as text and images. Same as you can't teach anyone how to drive using text and images. With video, you get to put across more of the nuance. It's pretty easy to do and it will also erase any doubts people may have about your abilities. You could pull up a chart with your trade markers on it to show this isn't video attempt 5 of the day, you could do it with a live account showing the depth increase when you place a limit order and your trades appear on time & sales and you would leave no doubt as to what a great trader you are. It is an amazing medium. After all, if you are truly altruistic in your wanting to teach here, then you should understand that more people will pay attention to your lessons if they have confidence that you can walk the walk. Good luck DT -
Tams - if you want to PM me, we can chat on Skype and I'll give you some pointers. There are plagiarists here and I don't really want to give them the material...
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Looks good Josh - on that buy of 37.75 - were you looking at that area already or was it just a pure order flow trade? In terms of your footprint,what is that? Is it GOMI or Rancho? Either way, it looks very nice the way you have it set up. Have you tried range charts - like a 4 or 5 range? I think that offers an interesting perspective....
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This is a video for someone that asked me to record my thoughts on a live market to help them understand what to look for in the order flow. The first 15 minutes is commentary and worth listening to for those new to order flow. At 15:00-16:00, it becomes clear the market has reversed and we start looking for a pullback. At 20:30 the market does turn down and we get in long on that pullback when the order flow confirms at around 22:45. I cut the video after 4 contracts were taken off because it was churning around and there was no benefit in recording that. I got stopped out at B/E on the rest when it came back after it was announced that the Dems & Republicans were no longer going to play nicely together on the issue of the Fiscal Cliff. :crap: Best to watch full screen in HD
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Glad to see somebody else rolled - thought it was just me :haha:
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Josh Given the amount of index arb programs around - does this cash chart help much? Do you see enough of a difference between this & the ES itself? Also - would you prefer this over the Tick, or the Premium? How about the ETF or a correlated index (or even the 6e)? DT
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Tell you what - go back to post 4996 and help me out applying the formula to it....
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lol!!! Can't argue with that! That's gonna have me giggling for a good 10 mins I think...
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Risk is only "below support" according to the way you look at the markets, though. If I don't recognize your version of 'support', then there is no reason for me to consider that the cut-off point. So - without understanding the way someone looks at the market, presuming that the next support level down is relevant is a little leap.
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In terms of my own trades, my default setting is as follows: Initial stop : 4/5 ticks Initial Target 1 : 4 ticks Initial Target 2 : 8 ticks Initial Target 3 : 12 ticks but this is managed out With such a small stop, I cannot chase moves. What I will do on volatile days is to widen these stops/targets as I did yesterday. In terms of the trade, let's take the example of a 5 contract trade T1 - 3 contracts T2 - 1 contract T3 - 1 contract When I get to my target 1, I move stop to break even MOMENTARILY. I have hit my T1 price but am waiting for a fill. At that point I set the stop to b/e whilst waiting for the fill. If I don't get filled & it comes back - I exit. If it gets filled, I move the stop back out of the way. Once filled on T1 - I banked $150 - I am long 2 contracts, 4 ticks above my entry price - My break even point on this trade is now 6 ticks below my entry price (2 contracts * 6 ticks = $150 banked). - This means that at the time T1 is hit - my break even price is 10 ticks below, even though the market only moved up 4 ticks - I now have a lot of breathing room So - as long as I enter in a position where I think I have a good chance of getting those initial 4 ticks, I end up in a fairly stress free trade. I am sure someone mathematically inclined can 'prove' to me that this is a terrible way to trade. Still, it's a very comfortable way to trade. It suits me. The thing is though - I have absolutely no idea what all this means in terms of R:R...
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I do agree that you shouldn't buy if you don't think the trade has potential to move up some. Still, the market will do whatever it will do. You can only control your risk and then do what you can to take some profits off the table. I could put on a 2 point stop, look @ a monthly chart and say "all looks fine up to 1417" and set myself a huge target. Wouldn't do me a lot of good. Be a fine R:R though. Of course, this is a silly example but then so is the concept of having a fixed R:R because the rewards side is only potential where the risk side is not. The risk side for most is is an absolute maximum risk, albeit with the chance to get out for less loss. The reward side is a little different, the market will do whatever it wants to do. You only know reward after the event. I do understand having space above in a long and limiting downside, I just think that berating someone on a forum because of some arbitrary minimum 1:2 (or whatever) ratio is a bit unfair tbh. [/rant] BTW - there's a guy on another forum who posts his trades daily - his historical R:R is .67 and he's quite profitable.
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I don't agree that your risk is always below support in a long. You do not need any support or resistance level to play off. Today, I was long just above the open. What I wanted to see going into the trade was the market stay above the open. What happened was it ticked down through the open 2 ticks but the amount of contracts hitting the bid was trivial. So - the price itself wasn't even important. There was a few hundred contracts 1 tick below the open and about 48 2 ticks below. There's all sorts of reasons for staying in a trade but the last swing low/support on a long trade isn't the only way to play it/ On entry to a trade, reward is the one element you have least control/knowledge about. Sure - you can look @ the last swing high above if you enter on a pullback or pick another level but it's an unknown. You can only control risk, reward is down to management and luck. I crapped out of the last portion of my long after the 10am news, in retrospect I could have gotten a lot more out of the trade. As it is, I have no 'fixed' reward. In all of my trades, I have no clue what the R:R is when I enter. I might exit a trade after 2 ticks, it just depends how the action plays out. I think the importance of R:R is overstated in the retail trading world myself.
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btw - if anyone is interested - Jim Dalton has some good webinars on the ES here - James Dalton Webinars | J Dalton Trading In particular, the following webinars are excellent: The Importance of Understanding Overnight Markets for Short-term Traders SFO Magazine Webinar: Identifying Day Timeframe Trade Opportunities And they are free too!
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Good thread - I agree that to some extent today was textbook. 1 - overnight inventory short, so we took a peek down to the overnight low & then reversed and took out the poor buggers that got in last. 2 - big push up, I went long just above the open price, 1360.25 and apart from a few trades 2 ticks below the open, the open held. 3 - push up through yesterdays low, failed to close the gap, then took another attempt at that high before turning down 4 - some nice measured moves on the way down Basically, fairly typical day where (in my opinion), the market is primarily being driven by day players. What wasn't typical was the way the thing was jerking around. That bounce off 1356 was fast & brutal, hence I missed it. I have to use a larger than usual stop on the trade I did take because of this extra volatility. So - textbook day, sure. Easy to trade - not that easy in my opinion. It was moving a bit fast early on.
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It's a skill isn't it? Those mechanically inclined won't agree and they are the majority but still... Like any skill, you should have a fair idea as to how you are coming along. You do the same thing every day, you become more confident, opportunities become more obvious, you see more easily when you are offside. Of course, the results should speak for themselves but you should intuitively know when you are getting better at daytrading.
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When I was younger, a stewardess let me raise her flaps. Probably not something we should go into....
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Yup - that's him... Sadly, it was only a SIM account....:haha:
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all this pilot stuff makes me laugh.... My 10 year old thinks it's a breeze....
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Did he say anything about knobs?
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Roger, you sorta missed the point. You brought in the whole 'flight instrument' analogy & hence the comments on Renko being an instrument. Geddit????
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Is that like a banjo?
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I'll risk getting hung, drawn & quartered for spamming the board.... There's a free lesson on here: Order Flow - Now that you can read it This isn't really specific to the products I sell, it'll applies whatever DOM you choose - be it mine or XTrader/CQG etc. It is specifically about throwing away your charts in order to learn to trade off the DOM. Not necessarily throwing them away permanently... Just during the learning process.
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If I Hear "price Action" or "setup" ONE More Time...
DionysusToast replied to joshdance's topic in General Trading
Any chance you could show the evidence of your 87% and 2% drawdown too? I mean - it's only fair before someone embarks on the task. I know your room trades are SIM, I'm sorta wondering when you actually get time to trade live nowadays.