Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
forexfilms
-
Content Count
25 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by forexfilms
-
Men Suck - Women Are Better Traders
forexfilms replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in General Trading
In my experience women are far less likely to be attracted to trading. They tend to be more satisfied with what they are given in life and are more likely to be submissive rather than shun authority and try to be individualistic which is usually required to be a trader. -
We are just monkeys in a lab. That's the problem.
-
I believe the US Dollar has made a major turning point today. Rather than moving directly to 1.5500 from here the EUR/USD is likely to correct further down the medium term support at the parallel channel. This puts the climb to 1.5500 on hold but does not negate it.
-
My primary Elliott Wave count on the EUR/USD has now turned temporarily bearish. The drop that started May 4th, 2011 and ended May 23rd, 2011 appears to be corrective but is most likely only the first leg down in a corrective move that will most likely drop the EUR/USD to the 1.3750 area. There is support here from the medium term channel line and support from several areas going back a couple years. This is also where wave C would equal wave A. The timing where the EUR/USD would hit 1.3750 is also close to July 25th when the next EUR/USD rate decision is due. There have been hints of a rate increase that previously drove the EUR/USD higher. If we do get this rate increase it could drive the EUR/USD to reversal. EUR/USD Elliott Wave Analysis | Forex Films
-
You are correct Lucid but fundamentals have been bad for the entire uptrend. The EUR/USD is trading on technicals right now. I'm short term and long term bearish the EUR/USD but medium term bullish. I could of course be wrong but I believe that the current highest probability wave count points this direction
-
The bearish count isn't totally out the window yet but I think we finished up a first wave (leading diagonal?) at the highs and we will continue lower. Maybe we'll get a bounce off of industrial production, consumer confidence and pre-fomc craziness before a c wave drop...
-
After Greek vote it was obvious EUR/USD was going lower but I think it has a lot lower to go than most people. I think we will drop to 1.4290 at the least but more likely closer to 1.4200 area. This view takes the entire move up as one Elliott Wave. My latest video discusses my views on EUR/USD post Greek vote of confidence. Also includes links to article on QE3. Forex Market Outlook Video
-
I've never really understood being unable to place a trade due to fear of failure or fear of success. Perhaps I just have a more risk taking personality but I have more a problem of putting out too many trades rather than not being able to place one.
-
My primary Elliott Wave count on the EUR/USD is now the bullish outcome. The final target of this larger uptrend would be between 1.5400 and 1.5500. Short term wave counts put us in the beginning of a 3rd wave higher that should take us to at least the 1.5000 area. If we break 1.3750 this count will be voided. If we break 1.4750 this Elliott Wave count will become even more probable but watch for the turn and the levels previously mentioned to signal the C wave has finally ended. The charts above and below show the likely primary count for the EUR/USD. Parallel trend lines hold support and resistance levels for the medium term. This count is becoming more and more likely as the days pass.
-
Look out for European Finance Ministers meeting on Greece at 1300 EDT. 1 hour from now!
-
The loans are to get them time to sell Greek government owned properties and start strict economic reforms in order to be able to pay back the loans. They are also hoping the Greek GDP improves which would help increase tax receipts which would help Greece pay back the loans.
-
There was huge news coming out of the Euro Zone on Friday. Merkel and Sarkozy appeared together in a press conference saying they were working together on the Greek sovereign debt crisis and they both believe that the Greek debt situation needs to be resolved sooner rather than later. The may sticking point for German agreement was participation of private bond holders. Germany believes private bond holders should be required to rollover their bonds to longer maturities in order to help keep Greek yields down but France, the European Commission and the European Central Bank all opposed this idea. The agreement has been made to allow private bond holders such as pension funds and insurance firms to voluntarily buy more Greek bonds when their Greek bonds mature. This tactic is to avoid rating agencies such as S&P classifying the action as a default. Greek bailout number 2 is also on the table. We have been discussing this possible bailout for weeks now and it has seemed like a sure thing. There was a rumor floating around on Friday that the second Greek bailout that was previously being discussed as an additional 90B Euro loan would be increased to 150B Euros. The first Greek bailout which Greece is still receiving payments from was finalized at 110B Euros. This would make a total of 260B Euros in loans to Greece as the Greek economy slips farther into recession. The recession shows no signs of stopping as Greek workers choose to strike and protest the strict austerity measures forced upon them rather than working and producing.
-
If you want to hold onto something long term and not use much leverage it might be even better to hold US stocks short.
-
US Dollars and Japanese Yen are the best currencies to hold long term but if you're interested in trading this changes every few days for traders. For the next few days and probably another month the Euro, Australian Dollar, British Pound will be best to hold.
-
Just like everything else it takes commitment to do well trading. You can get a job and make a living in any industry without knowing much about the industry you're in but to really succeed you have to stay committed and do research and keep trying. Treat your trading like a business and not like a day job and you will go far.
-
There are many great online places to learn and the best way is to practice trade or watch the market. I think Elliott Wave Principle by Prechter and Frost is a must read along with Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy
-
The S&P downgraded Greek debt again today. Greece now has the lowest credit rating of any country in the world. The S&P said it would consider any debt restructuring a default and therefore downgraded Greek debt three notches. The restructuring could be in the form of a bond swap or extending the maturities of existing bonds. The outlook for Greece remains negative and therefore S&P plans to downgrade again...
-
If a bullish move ending at 1.5400 - 1.5500 is to remain on the table it is most likely we will find support around the 1.4250 area which is an area of support and the 61.8% retracement of the last move up.
-
My primary Elliott Wave count on EUR/USD puts us in a long term downtrend which began in early May. We have broken through many probably reversal points after May US Non-Farm Payrolls and US Unemployment data caused the EUR/USD to surge upward. We managed to find resistance at 1.4695 and as long as this hold we can continue with this count. Even with the alternate bullish count we are likely to continue down to the 1.4250 area which is the 61.8% retracement of the last bullish move and possible support. If we break higher and exceed 1.4700 – 1.4750 area this count is invalidated and we must switch to the alternate count below.
-
The EUR/USD has spent most of this week correcting. We have reached the 1.4500 level but since tomorrow is Friday and the pattern does not look technically complete I expect more continuation to the downside. Targets discussed in video. Forex Fundamental and Technical Analysis Video
-
Fibonacci levels are very important but just like everything else in trading they are not fool proof. For example: -Not everyone places the same importance on one fibonacci level as others (such as some like 38.2% the best while others look for 50%). -Not everyone draws the fibonacci retracements in the same place so different level have different people supporting them. -Many times the reversal doesn't come at the fibonacci level but very close to it or between two important fibonacci levels.
-
Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
forexfilms replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
I am primarily a forex trader and I've been trading for a few years. I just started on this forum a few days ago. I also post on twitter (ForexFilms) and I have a blog and youtube accounts by the same name. Hopefully we can help each other out and learn from each other! -
Olli Rehn of the EU Commission saying the Euro Zone has prevented a financial meltdown and has contained the sovereign debt crises. John Kicklighter of DailyFX reports, "The BIS reports that German lenders were the largest foreign owners of Greek gov't debt at $22.7 bln." Also hearing news of the very hawkish tone coming out of ECB meeting Thursday about raising rates July 25th. We're expecting a release of higher inflation forecasts. Trichet says, "Absolutely no way out of Greek adjustment." All this and EUR/USD is a buy right now! Here's to 1.5500!
-
MACD signals you to enter the trade long after the optimal entry therefore you make less money on the trade and take more risk because your stop would have to be farther away. It has the same problem on signals to exit the trade. The biggest way to be successful (in my opinion anyway) is just basically keep trading and study charts and you will begin to be able to recognize patterns that are highly probable.
-
I also use candlestick patterns and some of my most profitable trades start with a simple candlestick pattern. I also use RSI because I have found divergence on RSI to be one of the most accurate tools to make money off of trends losing steam. I used to use MACD because divergence on it is also highly accurate but I think using MACD is just too slow. I also use EMAs to make sure I stay with the trend (short/long on bounces off the EMA in favor of the trend. Elliott Wave counts are also very important to my trading along with traditional technical patterns.