Do Or Die

Wow, more historical charts for the mysterious black box indicator. The indicator for which Mr. Vendor cannot share code or make live calls. PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread: 1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators 2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades 3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences: "BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"... "I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

Actually I thought the same for a moment, but gave up on the idea immediately because the title does not gives anyone the right to call strategy useless. Also, I do not censor discussions without live calls, but if someone is promoting a method religiously, he should provide a credible trade log. Refer to MightyMouse's post, there was similar post from Tams deleted for being blunt. I'm running the scan for divergence on SnP 500 symbols only; days on which there are 5 or more signals are preferred. As per my username, 'Do Or Die'; challenges inspire me, and short-term failures motivate to improve long-term strategy. So loving all the 'arguments' PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread: 1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators 2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades 3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences: "BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"... "I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

First, if someone *really* wants to teach me something useful I would willfully bow in respect. Second, it is usually a good practice in forums to read someone's post before replying. In the case something is not clear, straightforward attacking shows the insecurity of the poster. My method of marking a divergence, as explained previously, cannot be found on internet or textbooks. In any case if it gives some the right to call it 'laughable' and 'herd mentality', I'll let my live log speak who is laughable here. Third, you made a small post with a chart that had no labels. "key is you see the dvg from the thick blue line." How do you suppose for me to learn about the blue line? and how to assume delta candles? Fourth, I'm done running a private forum for strictly professional traders. I'm done running chat rooms before that. And I think this stuff is totally off-topic to this thread. Fifth, it is usually a good practice in forums to read someone's post before replying. In the case something is not clear, straightforward attacking shows the insecurity of the poster. I used the word 'live' along with tradelog every time. Posting within minutes of signal generation is irrelevant if working on daily time frame. For example, the two short calls on AAPL mentioned here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/stock-trading-laboratory/10662-stocks-model-2.html lack hindsight completely. Similarly the signals I mentioned in this thread are supposed to be carried for weeks, (that is called daily time frame), so they are credible enough even if posted after market hours. PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread: 1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators 2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades 3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences: "BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"... "I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

Continued from the starting posts... dgx, aet, cms, etn, nsc, slb, fdx, are in favor. eog and etn somewhat dangerous. No long signals, yet. All trades on daily charts only, because they can be conveniently posted in non-market hours. If feasible, I will try to post maybe few on intraday time frame such as 2-minute. PS: Do not post in this thread the following, you are always free to start your own thread: 1. Charts with mysterious black-box indicators 2. Claims about profitability of a method without log of live trades 3. Please read the starting post, inclusive of these sentences: "BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche"... "I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal..."

Actually I mentioned in the first post that this thread is for maintaining log of live signals.But apparently you did not read that in a hurry to post charts of your 'proprietary' indicator. Yet, the question still remains: Historical charts with mysterious 'holy grail' indicators form the perfect recipe to trap newbies

LOL, more historical charts. Strange why people shy away from logging a live track record. One more and I will dump this thread to start another in Traders Log section.

Let me repeat it (perhaps) fourth time I am maintaining a log here about the strategy which you call 'herd mentality'. You go ahead and log live trades for whatever you feel is the greater truth. Let PnL speak louder than charts.

Since you asked, you have posted historical charts with colorful indicator. You are promoting a particular indicator, which is only available on payments. Unlike you, I have taken the pain to explain my method in great detail. FYI, there are thousands of vendors on internet who claim their indicators are 'scientific' using all the 'scientific' terminology. Apparently many also claim to successfully pick the tops and bottom, similar to your posted charts. How many call their trades live? How many have guts to register as CTA and stop relying on income from selling indicators? I've come across only one DISFA Global. Goodluck in your career. In any case, I will try to ignore any off topic posts, and concentrate back on trading

Good to know that you read the title. I wish so much that you also read the first few lines of post before hurrying to promote your indicator. ROFL. Amazing. All the signals I posted are in profit. I will post live signals, which are a good proxy for my analytical methods. I do not need to post actual trades because I'm not and do not ever intend to solicit money for indicators or money management. I will leave you now to re-think before attempting another off-topic post.

The actual quote from Jarhead was: Sgt. Siek: Now to the rest of you, do you have what it takes to be the meanest, the cruelest, the most sadist unforgiving mother f-kers in God's cruel kingdom? btw old strip but my favorite, trading is parallel to entrepreneurship

Hello, I think you have written a lot about the 'herd mentality' and your 'proprietary' indicator. So I asked you to log a live trade record (in another thread). thanks.

Sorry if it offended but people often use such phrases figuratively for something which requires guts. The easiest example I recall is the military instructor in Jarhead shouting "F-k that shit". It tickles my twisted sense of humor, the girl teaching her kid to face bullies with manliness.

Earlier detection of RSI divergence also helps in keeping tighter stop. So it helps in both reducing the risk and maximizing potential reward. I use the most recent pivot high, bar high or support as stop loss. Shorts triggered in VRSN, DGX, AET, CMS, EOG, ETN, NSC, SLB, FDX.

Hi, This follows from the RS- Internal thread. I have been able to code the classic divergences to a satisfactory level without a future looking formula. The peculiarity of this method is that it detects a divergence before the second consecutive peak/trough actually occurs on chart (anticipatory discovery). This eliminates the huge lag in decision making caused by waiting to confirm the second peak/trough. See this chart: Most codes that I've seen around either use a future looking formula like zig-zag and/or wait for the confirmation of second peak/trough. By the time the second consecutive pivot is confirmed, market has already moved away by few bars. In V-shaped pivots, the move is already over if one goes by the traditional way of comparing two peaks on prices vs. an oscillator. More charts: BTW, the 'advanced' word in title is more of a cliche; the strategy is actually basic (conceptual); i.e. mark opportunity when a stock seems to move lower while it's internal relative strength actually increases. I will be calling some signals live in this thread, so it will also serve the purpose of a journal, to improve the strategy.

the book is 'interesting'

Thanks, I got you reading this thread, now these are the posts you should try to answer How Much Weight Should One Put on Market Direction? - Page 3 - Traders Laboratory Forums http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/10512-sin-predicting-anticipatory-trading.html#post125013 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/10512-sin-predicting-anticipatory-trading-2.html#post128253

So true. I have traded using line charts in intraday. I've seen many successful traders who use only line charts and Excel.

This update dedicated to steve46 Concepts in Technical Analysis Top 7 Mistakes Which Beginners Make in TA Introduction to Understanding Volatility The Heck About Trading for a Living Trading Journals- Some Information And Downloads Getting Started With NinjaTrader Relative Strength - Internal Moment of Truth for Stock Investors Leading Indicators for Economy and Stocks Stationarity and Trading Regimes Trading Regime Analysis Using RSI List of ETFs for Sector Rotation The Sin of Predicting and Anticipatory Trading Trading Stocks Using Heatmaps Three Steps in Trading System Design Regime Adjusted RSI System Smart Optimization And Avoiding Curve-fitting William Dunnigan's Methodology Top Biases That Affect Traders Trading Regime Analysis Using RWI Trading Regime Analysis Using Chart Patterns

See Leading Indicators for Economy and Stocks Data management is easiest in Amibroker among all software you mentioned; so it may be the second best option.

Your best option is R or Excel. It is easy to get historical fundamental data: dataset - Data APIs/feeds available as packages in R - Statistical Analysis - Stack Exchange

The optimization process I typically follow for stocks (while keeping in mind the points in article): 1. Divide the stocks in sets, each having minimum 20 and max 100 - Fast moving stocks like FSLR, NOV, WLP, BIDU etc. - Slow moving stocks like KO, DOW, ABT, MO etc. - Low priced stocks between 20 to 40 - High prices stocks above 100 - Large caps - Stocks which have a thin order book - Set which I think (before optimization) is best suitable for this particular strategy - Mixed set containing all of the above 2. Run optimization on mixed set. Use a stable parameter from this set to back test (out of sample) on rest of the sets. 3. After optimization the strategy should show performance improvement in ALL of the sets. If it does not, I try to find a practical reason related to those stocks like too volatile, more susceptible to gaps ets. If I cannot find a valid reason, keep the original parameters and discard optimization results 4. Repeat above steps on each premise used for system development to test whether it adds edge or is just redundant. If the strategy does not makes money on a particular set its ok, but it should not lose money after trading costs. I keep separate sets for intraday and EOD trading systems.

Why does the computer optimized strategy performs badly in actual trading? The price data consists of some deterministic signal or pattern (to be used for trading) plus spurious random price movements which are generally referred to as noise. One man's noise is another man's information, so I'll like to elaborate on it. My favorite definition of noise is: what the market does between an entry and exit. For example, you see a pattern formation and buy on breakout at 60 with stop loss at 55 and target 70 respectively. The price action between 55 to 60 is all noise; as well as the price action between 60 to 70. This is a simple example, the noise 'detected' by your system will depend upon the actual strategy inclusive of scaling in/out. The computer optimization of a system’s input parameters on the test data produces performance results that fit the signal AND the noise. The noise process does not repeats in the same way in out-of-sample data or real time (noise is complete randomness!). After an optimization run on the test data, it is difficult to determine whether the input variables chosen from the optimization run have curve fit the noise, which will not be repeated, or have successfully modeled the price signal. The profits on out-of-sample data from choosing the input parameters that generate the best performance results from the optimization fit on the test data will usually disappear in practice, unless the above steps are followed.

So maybe having your gf/wife to give a lovely and appreciative smile when starting the day can help more than repeated inaudible messages, though I've not tried consciously any of this.

Someone pointed me to research that beauty product manufacturers make girls feel ugly about their appearance; McDonald's advertising is so effective and pervasive that before most children can speak they can recognize McDonald's. But I think it is not just about hearing/seeing something repeatedly, but feedback from other people. It has a very strong effect when you see someone beautiful giving a lovely smile after consuming something (even if that something is sh*t). Similarly a man in expensive blazer giving financial advice sounds intelligent, irrespective of how stupid he is. Have you noticed the selection process for analysts by top brokerages? they prefer sales skills to knowledge about markets or critical/quantitative thinking. Here is a recent ad which caught my eye: Wells Fargo Advisors-Salary, Benefits and Paid Training Minimum Requirements -Minimum of 2 years of professional experience preferably in Sales or Business Development -Have a large network of contacts (500+) and are active in the community where you will work -Exceptional prospecting skills (No Leads are Provided) The freaking company mentions nowhere in the job ad about a certification like CFA or even experience in financial markets. BTW off topic but one of my favorite quotes: "Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our Great War's a spiritual war... our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars. But we won't. And we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off. " -- from the movie Fight Club. PS: I'm not a Brit