Do Or Die

This is market state for same day - 19th August. ETFs representing Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities (XLP,XLV,XLU) and Financials, Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials (XLF,XLK,XLY, XLI) are mentioned. Trend Strength refers to mid-term trend (similar to 50 day moving average) RS Internal refers to immediate expected movement RS (S&P) refers to how well the sector is performing relative to overall market -100 means extremely bearish and +100 means extremely bullish It can be seen from chart that RS internal turned positive for all sectors.

Okay, I've quantified the concepts discussed in this thread and the RS-Internal one. The three most important factors have been quantified on a scale of -100 to +100. (-100 means extremely bearish while +100 means extremely bullish). There are no fancy formulas used, just the concepts I've stated so far. This is the market state for yesterday close. The RS internal anticipates the immediate move, while the RS with respect to S&P suggests how stronger the mid-term trend is. Comments welcome!

:rofl: such shows can be stress relieving for traders :rofl: only if MMS approves.

:rofl: These types of threads have a lot of entertainment value.

(deleted)...............

To Clarify: She is a paid member of stockcharts.com and can create custom indicators but you cannot. You can go to any charting website like freestockchart.com and can plot Stochastics with parameters (8,3) to replace her Money Wave. For Relative Strength score refer to YRCW example and my methodology in this post. You can see in the latter example that I posted a list of stocks based on how they have performed relatively during a certain time interval. She is doing exactly the same with an added thin layer for discretionary analysis. As an advice stop hunting for the easy way- plotting the holy grail indicator. Try to work out the methodology- its all basics.

My thoughts go well with Tradewinds and I'll try to suggest something in bullet points for clarity: This is not for sake of comparison, but other forums of similar size are not so liberal for vendors unless they are paying significantly (not just posting a banner ad) Vendors are essential part of any trading community and for obvious business reasons they deserve a fair chance There is a huge difference between a 'normal' member receiving criticism versus a vendor receiving criticism A vendor turns to degrade others because he NEEDS to prove himself right every time. A normal member may make rude comments but it will most likely be a knee jerk reaction unless that member is a troll. The more insecure and petty a vendor, the stronger his emotional reaction will be on being criticized, and more frequent are the personal attacks inflicted. Most forums have a warning system- say if a member gets 3 warnings within 12 months he gets banned. How about an objective rule: make half the number of required warnings for vendors to get banned. In any case, they should be the last one to try attacking someone or indulge in purely promotional posts (scam).

Hi Zhaozilong, Her RS rating is basic- compare a stock against SnP AND it's sector index. Refer to the YRCW example in second post.

Yes, amibroker does out-of-sample testing same way. Monte Carlo Simulations use 'fictitious' data.

Hi Nvr735i, I read few recent pages and also the controversy. I had a similar article where newbies startes accusing me of being losing trader. The problem is that media, brokers, tip sellers and trading system sellers (now that's most of the financial services industry ) propagate illusions for 'get rich quick'. Most people are simple not able to get hold of the risk involved.

Looks to me like we are discussing for the sake of discussion alone. I said HFT is a drag in relation to microstructure changes it has brought in the markets. The article also says it's "bleeding" the system and I though it will be simple to relate that to flash crashes and front running. People who trade with size (more than 2000 shares in thin stocks, on any time frame) just know about the difference in fills they are getting. You certainly are not aware of that... but there's lot it to say in a single post. I will have to post a full article trying to convey from basic what HFT has brought and what it has taken (and again in relation to microstructure only, not why certain people are losing). They are not playing with the same rules as anyone else, I will show why shortly. My article is about a regime shift. "How HFT Has Changed Tape Reading". Maybe I should have used "How HFT Has Changed Scalping" because people on this forum relate tape reading to Wyckoff. And my article empirically shows the regime change and the people that are effected by it. Your criticism is similar to the newbies in my other thread who start complaining about the maths without trying to grasp the logic. The math ofcourse was right though explained later.

Yes ofcourse. For example the Pakistani Stock exchanges are not susceptible to... because regulators there do not allow co-location and program trading. OK I was just kidding. The effects of such electronic trading may effect only sub-minute scalpers. I mean US markets are good enough.

Looks like I(we) can sum up here. There is a significant difference between these regime shifts and the current one which we are talking. NYSE going Hybrid and Decimalization were good for the over all market microstructure. The NYSE specialists lost their monopoly and provided better level playing field to more market participants. However, this regime of HFT going full throttle is a drag on entire system. I do not want to elaborate on this but you may agree after a little research- HFT is giving less and taking more. By this article I do not want to show sympathy who might have lost their trading edge; just suggesting for a better level playing field. Yes, maybe I should have given these two explanations earlier. Compare this with the below version. The market data for such judgements has just become more noisy, as the graphs show.

Consider two cases: 1. There is one signal per 24 Bytes 2.There is one signal per 192 Bytes This is not just increase in data. This is increase in noise. Edit: You are saying that Nanex isn't just wrong, they are stupid.

Okay Sir... I've got news for you too. Feel free to assume I'm a losing trader, like you are free to assume tomorrow market will go up/dpwn. Ever heard of 'regime shifts'? please google for it. Whenever there is a regime shift a certain type of traders get thrown out of the market. I expect readers understand how to read graphs and how to read English. Again it gets harder for certain trading styles, and it does not changes at all for other trading styles. :rofl: Can you relate a similar regime shift in past? Let me tell you one. A LOT of nyse scalpers went out of business when nyse became hybrid. This regime shift again puts certain scalpers out of business. OK I hear your assumption I'm one of them. BTW, I did appreciate you made such a detailed reply.

It's commonly used on trading floors... Momentum Day Trading techniques Option Trading | Lenny Dykstra - Deep In-The-Money Options Strategies - Who Took My Money? | 1option.com Thick refers to when the bid/ask looks stable and 'liquid'. Similarly thin refers when you cannot hit/take more than 500 shares at best bid/ask.

PS: it's great to see so many new members in this thread.

See here, plenty of options: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading/10623-list-defensive-etfs-investing.html

You do not place orders intentionally to make the ask/bid side appear thick... HFT trading is totally different than retail trading. The quotes per trade ratio has gone up 8 times... do you think that is because of individual traders like you.

How about this......

Steve46, Yes, I'm an arrogant prick full of overweening pride who is nowhere as smart as he thinks he is. And yes, I am using a slow old laptop running decade-old software on a thirty-year-old paradigm. Now that I have got your brain working could you please get back to: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/10512-sin-predicting-anticipatory-trading.html#post125013 Until then, please stay in the confines of: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/10597-early-warning-again-2.html#post126099

Hi, In the recent articles regarding emerging markets ETFs part 1 & part 2 I mentioned ETFs which you can use to transfer your risk from corporate to sovereigns. If you are confident about your read on stock market, use the ETF list for Sector Rotation. Let’s look at some other options for stabilizing portfolio in current economic mess. Relative momentum is currently strongest in Treasuries (IEF and TIP), Gold (GLD), and Emerging Market Bonds (PCY). Gold remains a top choice to hedge against inflation as well as stock market plunge. Gold usually rises in first half of recession period and all assets lose value towards the end of business cycle. Recently, central banks around the world have indicated that they will keep increasing their reserves of Gold. If you don't feel confident buying a true-gold indicator like Goldcorp (GG), then bet on the gold-mining ETF like the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) or the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL); the last two tend to get oversold with indiscriminate selling shadowing from stocks. Gold may pull back if margin buying is curtailed or precious metals pull-back sell-off in short term. The better yet lesser known physical precious metals ETFs are Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) and the Physical Silver Shares (SIVR). The Central Fund of Canada (CEF) is selling at a premium below 10%. Gold tend to be the leading indicator for most commodities, and commodities are a hedge against inflation. Most commodity sector ETFs, however, overexpose investors to the petroleum complex which suffers under a return-eroding “contango” based on business cycles. The equal-weighted GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund (GCC) minimizes this effect to deliver 12-month appreciation of 30.5 percent. Single-country ETFs in Europe following Italy, Spain and other nations have been rattled by the debt crisis. However, it has triggered indiscriminate selling of several long-time, non-volatile income producers. For example, in the same period, iShares S&P Preferred (PFF) tumbled -14.1%. Similarly, energy pipeline enthusiasts are used to seeing their assets create a reliable income stream that’s similar to preferred shares. Alerian MLP (AMJ) and Credit Suisse Cushing MLP (MLPN) plummeted -13.8% and -13.7%, respectively. MLPs are not normal stocks — they don’t pay corporate taxes, but they act more like a business that passes income onto its investors as distributions, or dividends Energy may pick up once the crisis begins to stabilize. The Market Vectors Coal (KOL) fund tries to reflect the performance of the Stowe Coal Index, which tracks global companies engaged in the coal industry. And then, there is certainly the option of investing in defensive sectors of Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Goods and Telecommunications in emerging markets. The GEMS allow an exposure in emerging market sectors. Financials GEMS ETF (FGEM) Consumer Goods GEMS ETF (GGEM) Health Care GEMS ETF (HGEM) Industrials GEMS ETF (IGEM) Basic Materials GEMS ETF (LGEM) Energy GEMS ETF (OGEM) Technology GEMS ETF (QGEM) Telecommunications GEMS ETF (TGEM) Utilities GEMS ETF (UGEM) Consumer Services GEMS ETF (VGEM) High Quality Bonds The iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corp Bond ETF (LQD) is a good diversified option with a 4.5% yield from high quality names like AT&T (T). In these times of crisis, these bonds are preferred to non-investment grade junk bonds like SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK). On the fixed-income side, an allocation to the iShares Barclays Capital TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) offers a 3.9 percent current yield. The ETF TIP gained 11.8 percent in the past year. There are currently four ETFs in the Emerging Markets Bond ETF Category which offer exposure to this slice of the market. Currently, two products–the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Market Bond ETF (EMB) and the PowerShares Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Fund (PCY)–offer exposure to bonds denominated in U.S. dollars, while another two–the WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt ETF (ELD) and the Market Vectors Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Fund (EMLC)–target bonds denominated in local currencies. While there are pros and cons to each type of exposure–generally speaking, dollar-denominated bonds take out the currency risk for the American investor, but may offer lower interest rates than local currency debt. Some top picks in the emerging markets universe include SPDR DB Intl Govt Infl-Protected Bond (WIP), PowerShares Emerging Mkts Sovereign Debt (PCY), and SPDR Barclays Capital Intl Corp Bond (IBND). Posting a comment will only take you 2 minutes, but it will be the strongest motivation for me to share something better.

There's even more to it- expenses never stop coming. Say someone remains flat for first six months (costs for learning to trade). Do his bills stop coming? can he tell his mortgage agent that he is having a bad phase? Hell, no. He needs to keep withdrawing something always IF he is "trading for a living". And even more to it- there could an disease, divorce, heart-break or anything which brings down the productivity. The expenses do not stop coming. This is why I took the figure 5K instead of mangeable 4K. I have a different perception here though. It's not about being a star or being on top. It is simply about being a professional trader. What is the survival rate for wannabe athletes? or entrepreneurs? It's very low similar to professional trading. The majority don't make it, even though who make may just have a average IQ. There are several large trading floors in NY and NJ... walk into one and you'll see REAL TALENT.

Yes, I'm an arrogant prick full of overweening pride who is nowhere as smart as he thinks he is. And yes, I am using a slow old laptop running decade-old software on a thirty-year-old paradigm. And it's the most shameful mistake on entire TL to have said 'tape reading' instead of 'scalping'. Now that I have got your brain working could you please get back to: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/10512-sin-predicting-anticipatory-trading.html#post125013 Until then, please stay in the confines of http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/10597-early-warning-again-2.html#post126099

Hi, For starters, keeping a proper trading journal can take your trading to a whole new level. Most traders tend to come up with a set of trading rules that, if followed, will be profitable. The problems occur that the trader is often not clear about all facets of his trading methodology and is unable to look at scenarios with probabilities. What follows is rules are not executed properly, which is the majority of the time for many traders. By journaling, you can go back and see exactly which trades worked, and which failed. Then, out of those that worked, how many followed your rules? etc. Once you become profitable (recognize your edge), the journal can take you to the next level; determining which of the setups or which trading rule is working best for you, and which is working the worst. Basically you can use the journal to maximize the productivity of your work (research, analysis and execution). Looking at your journal is like looking in a mirror- it lets you know where you stand. It lets you perceive better patterns and recognize your trading edge Recognize the skills you have and that you lack There’s no one who can tell that your mistakes are dumb or your strategy is biased Your charts and instruments talk to you and you alone Helps in organizing your research. No new indicators, charts or methods. You work calmly (and consistently) on one method and if it is proved wrong only then you shift to something new. Helps you make a business sense of trading. You become conscious to minimize trading costs and maximize productivity. Helps you shift towards the internal locus of control Basic Trading Template: Click Here to Download A simple yet clear diary to note down your trades- could be used for your first trading journal. Master Trading Template: Click Here to Download It can be used for Stocks, Options and Futures. It graphs the essential metrics like how you risk/reward is improving per 25-trade interval. It also reports other metrics like win/loss ratio and profitable trade average. The good part is that you do not have to buy these spreadsheets. The better part is that you can customize them to include other important metrics like Profit Factor, Alpha, Expectancy, Productivity Ratio and so on. DD