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BlowFish
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Everything posted by BlowFish
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I've missed your posts Walter, hope to see more of you
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
BlowFish replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
Yes tick volume represents activity but where the guys at TG are definitely confused (as I used to be)is thinking it is like futures tick volume. It is not What is reported as 'activity' are bid and ask changes. Heres an experiment for you (assuming you have some sort of DMA platform). Try entering a best bid/ask order for 100,000 on your platform and then cancelling it. What happens? Thats right you get activity despite no transaction having taken place. Similarly a guy on spot FX can phone a guy on another desk and buy or sell 10 yards of currency (thats 10 billion) and it won't show at all. There is no way of knowing if a tick represents an actual transaction or a re-quote!! If it does represent a transaction that could be 100 thousand or 100 billion. (Yes large desks do trade in billions or 'yards'). Moreover re-quotes on multiple networks will cause multiple ticks!! Do you see what I am getting at? If you really think that simply stating 'VSA works on any market' is any sort of proof (QED) there is no real discussion to be had. All you can really conclude is that VSA works in markets where order book changes are reported. It is certainly not proof that there is volume in forex. Does VSA work in markets where no volume and no tick volume are reported? Or where there is no open auction. Not sure if any of those markets still exist but they sure used too. Actually what I think is probably the case is the price patterns (the spreads and closes) are far more robust than given credit for. I know people that trade quite successfully using the price patterns alone. For example wide spread bar that closes high followed by narrow bars followed by a test (irrespective of volume). Lets take 'VSA works' as a given, an absolute truth, a constant if you will. All we can conclude then is that order book changes and re-quotes are a suitable proxy for volume when used by VSA. Nothing more nothing less. You know what? I think 9/10 times FX tick volume is a good proxy for real volume or maybe it is a good proxy when it matters (at key points) but why would you risk diminishing your edge if there is a possibility it is not? I know you have found your niche VJ but for anyone else why compromise? -
I'm a great believer of paying for service where you are getting it rather than 'hidden' somewhere else. So give him $10 a RT (or whatever the rate is) for execution and then pay him a management fee based on his performance, or a system fee or an advisory fee, whatever is appropriate. Edit: damn I already said that 6 months ago...at least I am consistent.
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Just to be clear the reason I enquired about sim trading (I did not suggest it) was to determine if the fear is simply of financial loss. Clearly if you can not execute faultlessly on sim (many can not) then it is not simply fear of financial loss as there is no money at risk on sim. In my case for example the strongest demon I need to keep at bay is fear of failure. There are others but 'loss' is fairly low on the list.
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
BlowFish replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
VJ this is a logical fallacy, cum hoc ergo propter hoc it is also non sequitor The volume is false that is the reality of the situation and to claim otherwise is flying in the face of that reality. It really is not debatable. Whether it makes a good proxy for volume is another matter entirely and is open to debate. I know i can get 200,000 volume to show on the tape simply by bidding 100,000 and cancelling it again. i.e. order book changes cause 'volume'. People might be interested in Tim Morge's article at medianline.com he touches on the structure (or lack of it) of the spot FX market. No affiliation just like his writing, particularly on trade management. It's worth a read for that alone. I don't mean to derail things here or be too contentious (hence numerous ) but I think it's pretty damn important to build your trading on the truth.The question remains why take the chance when there are instruments (like the currency futures) that are traded centrally with volume recorded? Anyway I'll put a sock in it now:) just hope people do there own due diligence rather than rely on GH who obviously has an agenda (selling copies of tradeguider into the retail FX market). btw VJ you where one of the people that the respect statement was directed at. Keep posting charts, I guess we just have to agree to to differ on this one . -
better still send it to me PO box ......
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[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II
BlowFish replied to Soultrader's topic in Volume Spread Analysis
I rather uncharacteristically sent an email to Gavin because I feel sure he is going to spout nonsense on this. He always has in the past. I wouldn't normally bother but without a doubt it's going to decieve some gullible newbies. There are a couple of guys that post here that work on (or run) professional FX desk's who have written about tick volume as a proxy for volume. Tim Morge (who's credentials are pretty good) mentions it in an article he wrote just this week. Believe GH or believe real professionals the choice is yours. The thing is why trade an instrument where there is no centralised market and no reporting requirement for volume when you could trade one that is regulated and volume is reported? Most of the arguments advanced for 'trading' FX are fairly bogus too but that's a story for another day:D. I know there are a couple of guys here that trade FX quite happily and that's great, respect to you. -
I have a feeling it's in the first. Kinda busy now but if no one chips in I'll add a bit more later.
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Can you paper trade pretty flawlessly without feeling extreme emotions? Reason I ask is that of the fears that BB mentions, and the many relatives they have, I think it is often more complex than financial loss. I know it was (and sometimes is) in my case. If you still have execution errors when in sim then it is probably more complex than straightforward financial loss. Having said that it could be worry about future loss and/or failure etc. Identifying and coming to terms with demons is likely to be an ongoing process however in the short term you might be able to force yourself through it. Maybe try Douglas' exercise (can't remember if it is in the 1st or second book). Another thing that occurs to me is to place your order, get straight up and walk to anther room...get a drink or something force yourself to. Just break the circle somehow.
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I think I am right in saying the redish colour dot is the previous bars pivot (H+L+C)/3 and that the yellow one is the current bars? Figured someone is bound to ask Don't want to put words in your mouth but the trigger would be price crossing the previous bar pivot (73)?
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That's probably going too far Actually if someone breathed new life into it that would be great!
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It occurred to me that this is not a particular desirable trait for a trader
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I'd just like to draw you guys attention to the date and time function. If you look at the top left of each post you will see the date and time the post was made. You will see that the last time the thread was active or Walter posted was over a year ago. I echo the appreciation of Walters efforts however the 'keep on going' comments make no sense for something that has been dead a year. It's fortunate that the thread is 'complete' if you read this and other threads by Walter you will learn how he uses CCI as a trigger, the price action he likes to see in the background and how he manages trades. However if you want to resurrect the thread I suggest that you post your own charts and observations
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Introduce Yourself Here - Don't Be Shy!!
BlowFish replied to trading4life's topic in Beginners Forum
Try the market profile section here for a start. -
Ahh, I think we might be using a different vocabulary here. Often the case Generally speaking when people use of the term divergence is in respect to amplitude. Price makes a higher high but the oscillator fails to. There is a whole range of techniques based on this phenomenon. I might be wrong but I think what you have there zdo is an oscillator with what I would call low phase shift or lag (which is a valuable thing in itself). However as the oscillator is 'pegging' high or low it is diverging (in amplitude) on nearly every swing. Of course it would trying to fit an infinite (unbound price) thing into a finite (bound oscillator) hole. You might manage to do it if you rescaled the oscillator every time price made a new high or low, not sure how useful that would be as old 'signals' would disappear and appear as new price series data arrived. Edit: just noticed "Learn to prefer fast, ragged, jagged, and jittery." on a re-read. Better still learn to prefer price :)
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I wonder if perhaps some sort of competition or other activity to get people involved. I was trying to think of something like post of the month but for new guys. Nothing practical has occurred to me (yet).
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I dunno - I guess if someone has tracked down an indicator they want they will make there 3 posts (probably inane) grab it and run. Maybe I am just turning into a grumpy old git in my old age (I always was a cynic!) but there seems to be more and more 'Hi Im Joe tch me how 2 trade plox' posts or the other old favourite "please show me an indicator that will make loads of money". I did respect the guy who said 'I am posting because I need 3 posts'. As I said it's pretty easy to deal with but I did consider ignoring the introduction section but felt bad about that so didn't Edit: Didn't really address the bit about encouraging new inexperienced guys. That's a tough one, but I am not sure 'forcing' (I know its not really forcing) them to post is probably not the answer. Is there a FAQ here? <blush> I don't know the answer to that. Maybe that would help people get orientated? There is nothing wrong with lurking imo.
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We are all trying to help, I was just trying to understand how PFE might accomplish that? No need to swear at me for being slow. I guess not understanding what Tresor is trying to accomplish (apart from getting a square peg in a round hole) does not help. Actually more like getting an infinite peg into a finite hole.
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Ninja Traders...lets Build a Better Mousetrap
BlowFish replied to darthtrader2.0's topic in Market Internals
The exiting thing (for me) that NT7 is supposed to have tick by tick chart backfill refresh for all data streams regardless of timeframe. Opens up a whole range of possibilities similar to NeoTickers tick precise technology. -
You don't even have to go that far BB learn a couple of price action 'patterns' and play them against 'lines' or areas. Again you could look over in the Wyckoff forum to learn how to identify areas based on supply/demand or just use 3 day H L C weekly H L. VA or a whole bunch of others that require no thought whatsoever to draw. They might not be as 'good' but still 'work'.
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I like that sentiment! I bought his book before I knew too much about ttm. Can't remember why to be honest. The book is OK, nothing special, certainly not one I would particularly recommend. I find it odd some 'snake oil' salesman are tolerated others not. I think what they did with their stolen indicators is pretty reprehensible. Again the irony is they are only OK anyway.
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Just don't even think of going there.
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Errm I don't want to appear like the Grinch before Xmas but Walter hasn't really added to it for over a year. Still its pretty complete as it is.
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This is very true, it seems clear to me that even the poster of the chart will often suffers perceptional biases. (not suggesting that is the case here) This probably comes out of an enthusiasm for their chosen methodology rather than any desire to fudge the results. Even posting hind sight charts they tend to cherry pick (probably sub consciously) and post dis proportionate numbers of good 'setups'. This tends to foster unrealistic expectations in the observer and causes confusion at the hard right edge when all of a sudden they have 'failed setups' to deal with. quickly identifying what is happening now is more important than the (fairly trivial) task of spotting 'setups'. Maybe they have concerns that posting failures might put people off the method. Guess what, thats the nature of trading. I think that many successful traders have a good read on price action so even if they are leaning against a line or demonstrating the latest wizzy oscillator they are still 'reading price' and so assimilating and evaluating information that they are not presenting. Hell they are often seem unaware exactly how they do it. I guess that is part of the 'experience of trading' you talk about above. These are general observations. I only posted here in response to your post Steve. In fact, DB by largely presenting principles avoids some of these issues and is quite clear that, for example, you can not know whether a climax is a prelimanry climax or the climax at the hard right edge.
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I wonder whether certain personality types tend to have particular common obstacles to overcome in their trading careers or whether certain personalities are more suited to particular approaches? I should mention that I got the link from an outfit called Willmot a quantitative finance portal. (not sure how I got on there mailing list). They are asking their members to fill in a form on their site to get an idea of personality types amongst quants.