BlowFish

I thought it was common knowledge that one uses disposable mobiles for illegal activity? The guy obviously does not have enough time for TV/reading!

I wrote a 'trade intensity' indicator for NT as a proof of concept, you can find it in the thread of the same name. I think this a better metric anyway but with very minimal tinkering you could use it to reconstitute orders. It only works in real time however if you where prepared to except a granularity of 1 second to reconstitute orders (I use much higher resolution) you could run it on historical data or you could change it to use Gomis NT framework that has a millisecond (or maybe better?) resolution database.

Well you can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink. Of course it's not surprising horses are wary if 99% of pools are contaminated. Having said that trading the first pull back after price has tipped it's hand and then 'confirms' through subsequent price rejection is a pretty firm strategy. Arguable you need to assume a bit more risk depending if you place the stop under the area that gave birth to the move or under the area that price was rejected (the hammer), I guess the latter keeps things tight. It will be interesting to see where you go with this. There have been a couple of threads here that have shown a very similar approach in reasonable detail. The big thing they had going for them was that they showed trades before they trigger rather than in hindsight thus giving people confidence that the approach works in 'real time'. Still it's early days yet, so good luck with your thread One thing you said Then price then retraced towards the consolidation zone and was rejected this is the key imho, leaning too heavily on specific patterns or candles ultimately will inhibit ones understanding of price action and the underlying supply and demand equation that causes the pattern/candle to manifest itself in the first place

Hey Zdo I wondered if I was going to get pulled on that! True, they did have pretty specific selection criteria. Having said that anyone that followed the reasonably simple instructions did well, the (few) that swayed or seconded guessed did not. As it was pretty much a fully systematic approach anyone that had done as instructed would have done well. Must re read way of the turtle one of these days, forgotten most of it.

To be honest I don't plan on going through it.

Nurture, as the Turtles experiment indicates. They repeated the experiment a second time and got the training period down to a week. Mind you it was a pretty simple system, something better suited to being done programatically nowadays. It has be said that 'old fashioned' trend following needs fairly deep pockets and cajones of steel.

There are many sorts of market participant with different agendas and different ways of doing business. As I said before what you can say is that anyone that uses a market order demands immediacy. I can't recall if they talk about 'pace', I seem to recall it's hinted at. Don't think I know the book (though may have just forgot).

No. Tick charts are based on ticks (or individual trades or prints) regardless of price movement, volume or time.. e.g. a 50 tick chart would start a new bar after 50 trades are reported (regardless of the price they occurred at, the volume of each trade, or the time between the trades) Google is your friend for quick straight forwards questions.

Indeed, and as many markets spend relatively little time trending you often get more opportunities. Another plus is as you are entering close to an extreme you can afford pretty tight stops. You also get markets that chop and slowly move directionally (Lots of backing and filling). These are often seen in 'corrections' that are counter the 'main' trend. As some one said back up the thread early detection of what you are dealing with is key is key.

Might want to check Welcome To Futures Truth Magazine of course do your own due diligence....past performance is no guarantee of.... etc. There are other similar sites too. I seem to remember a thread where someone mentioned they had just bought a system they where happy with (surprisingly). Also a while back waveslider offered to swap a simple profitable system for anything similar.

I met him at some do that Wilmott (the quant training guys) organised, I got that impression that he does the odd speaking gig.

I recommended a couple of inexpensive books in post 9. You can google the other stuff I mentioned. If you get stuck let me know. There seems to be a change of policy on links so I am a bit more apprehensive about posting them.

Just out of interest what do you mean by 'technical' Tim? I guess you are talking about 'classic' TA (price action, S/R, trend lines etc.)

You got it it on 1 & 2. Have you looked at market delta/ cumulative delta? These types of studies simply plot volume@bid and volume@ask rather than get into the intricacies of reading the tape print by print. Reading the tape print by print is a lot more art, pace of transactions, how orders are refreshed (or pulled), how one sided the book is etc. The basis for how these indicators are viewed by many is indeed that the 'important' orders are the market orders. Those that use market orders are often refereed to as 'aggressive buyers' or 'anxious buyers', they are prepared to pay up (pay the spread) for immediacy. They need a fill now. Did you check out the books I mentioned? Also check early threads by a trader called Futurestrader71 (not at this site). There is a little ebook called NoBSTrading that details a few specific DOM/trade patterns. If markedelta/cumulative delta thing appeals I can suggest a few places to check out too though google will get you there.

Glad to see you are still around Jerry! Hope life's treating you well.

Ahh OK. The info just smacked of a cut and paste to me. I guess it may be useful to someone however I can't help thinking that anyone that has even a remote interest in MP will have all this down and then some. As I say there are great free resources for MP on line and I can't see what this really adds. Just my opinion. I dunno just look at Jerry (JPerls) excellent threads on trading market statistics. Beautifully presented, original concepts and well supported when people asked questions. Really every one should at least take a look regardless of there favoured approach. I don't want to appear critical of TL but many of the posters of that quality (and there where a lot at one time) seem to have disappeared. There are one or two notable threads and one or two notable posters of course but far too few. Makes me kinda sad really. Again to me this post is just 'guff' it could have been cut and pasted from investopidia or some such. Maybe it is useful, but I can read it (and a whole lot more) numerous places on the good ole interwebz. So while it may (or may not) be useful I can't really see how it adds value to TL. Edit: Sorry about the somewhat argumentative post. Just kind of sad that there aren't a few more interesting (to me of course) discussions going down.

Outside not much, bad prints, implied trades....ignore. Inside similar however there are papers that I have seen (that seem pretty plausible) that this often happens when volatility becomes high round the open, news, closes etc. Anyway I would focus on what is quantifiable.

You are obviously less sceptical than me All his (metalsguru) posts seem to be shameless plugs for Larry Levin. Levins courses and 'insider secrets' have been discussed at TL before at some length. (I have had some experience of them my, hunch is he is a floor guy that could not successfully make the journey 'upstairs'). There are some excellent free sources for MP info from credible sources (like the CBOT), I won't post links as I am not sure what the current policy on that is. It really does not take too much effort to cut and paste a synopsis to drive people towards dubious courses. There is nothing here that would not be returned at the top of a Google search. I really don't see the value at all. Personally I think all these threads should be deleted or at least locked. <shrug>

Can be either it is more a function of the type of order and how orders are matched by the exchanges matching algorithm. Edit: By inside I mean inside the best bid/ask rather than some sort of market insider.

You can get pretty much all of what there software does from public domain NinjaTrader code (check Gomi's indicators and Prometheus). As to how good there training is I dunno. As you say it's a lot of money to discover that it is not for you.

A couple of links I posted here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f24/forex-behind-computer-9196.html#post111197

Didn't realize it had been heard (oh wait it hasn't!) knew of a couple of pending actions against them. I think I linked this one a while back though it may not have been here wasn't this filed some time ago. Don't trade with bookmakers is the moral of the story!

Yes, though inside there are possible other reasons too. e.g. off the top of my head two limits being placed 'at the same time' (in theory there is no at he same time) at the same time between BB & BA, one to sell, one to buy. Or a limit buy and a stop sell inside should be matched (I think) depending on the precise details of the matching algorithm. They occur a bit more often (inside) though are still pretty rare.

In centralised markets it really should not. There are a couple of things that could cause it. Quotes lagging (quotes are not nearly as robustly updated as trade are) or simple 'bad ticks'. Trades conducted off exchange that still need to be reported on the exchange, some exchanges even though 'centralised' have a mechanism to conduct block trades directly between two counter parties. ermm what else implied trades which is way beyond the scope of this thread. Long and short of it is that you really should not be seeing many at all which is why I suggested there might be something screwy with the second T&S image you posted. Your understanding of how things work most of the time is good don't abandon that

Steve I was talking about sample rate (bar 'length' if you like) as opposed to sample size (number of bars). As you point out sample size (how much historical data you look at) is important too. This is what one does when they pick a bar size (plus type) and also choose how many bars to look at. This is likely to be influenced by the size (and or duration) of moves that a trader is trying to target. Even for discretionary traders how you slice and dice the data effects what is highlighted or obscured. As an example few scalpers would work from a monthly chart, in fact the 'context' of the monthly chart is unlikely to be of much concern to someone scalping for a couple of ticks a trade. This probably seems obvious but from some of the questions you see (or even advice offered) perhaps it's not.