BlowFish

Take a look at what Thalestrader has been posting. Nothing sexy just simple break outs of stocks that have gapped from the open (if I understand correctly). Now it could all be a sham of course but there are enough real time trades posted to make it look credible to me. Of course there are some people that sincerely believe it's impossible to make money trading break outs, it is not surprising that they can't. (Actually they are possibly ne of my my least favourite trades as it hapens but that's another story). There are some people that seem to believe that it is not possible to make money trading at all (for a retail trader), it is hardly surprising they don't. Again I wonder why on earth they would hang round trading forums.

Ahh OK. Yes it was not a method of communication that seemed useful really. Forums for discussions blogs to 'publish' and PM's for ....well....private messages is more than adequate imho.

I have to say I think your are pretty much wrong on each point here sorry I have met and corresponded with several of the guys who post and have little doubt that some are in the positive%. Do you believe people stop posting when they become profitable? Why would the demographic be any different amongst posters as traders as a whole? Take a look at the trading with market statistics threads that is something I can assure you is possible to trade profitably based entirely on the information presented there. It is also pretty unique as far as I know. If it is your sincere belief (which I have to say is contrary to my own experience) that only losers frequent forums then why would you spend any time here at all except as a social thing? I can't see how it is productive if you hold those beliefs.

Actually with proper position sizing it does not matter. The wonder of compound growth. The issue is actually that some marginal traders think they are profitable. The 'numbers game' is trivially simple, it is also vital. Of course many people would rather not look at the numbers as it would bring their reality crushing down. Of course it comes tumbling down anyway eventually . Take a look at Thalestraders postings on behalf of his 9 year daughter. From micro lot to full mini already with conservative MM. Funnily enough her dad was suggesting more aggressively increasing position size at one point.

Hehe indeed! Funnily enough I was in mid conversation with someone and all messages disappeared. There where some messages that where under a day old. Still if deletions are turned off maybe that's a non issue now.

There are some strange ideas coming out here on risk. It is worth repeating risk of ruin is the key statistic that you should consider when trading. Find out more at traderscalm.com, a great little site. Your stop should be set at an appropriate level to allow your trade to work, position size is what you should be thinking about varying to control risk. Whilst using 2 3 4 5% as a rule of thumb for how much account equitey to put at risk on any single trade is not a bad idea, RoR is the key to deciding which figure to pick. For example if your trades need a 3 (ES) point stop to work, and you do not want to risk more than 3% account equity on a single trade (pre-determined by considering RoR) it is not hard to see that you need 5k account equity per contract traded.

Check out the volume splitter thread (can't remember its exact name) I think you should find what you need there.

Ask them. If satisfactory answers are not forthcoming move swiftly on. Edit: Fixed based on Tams advice!

Hi, The visitor messages in my profile seem to have disappeared. No biggy but thought I should mention it.

Trades are trades and they are reflected by volume. Would you rather know where the most trades took place or where price spent the most time? If the former use volume profile if the latter use TPO's. It is possible (but unlikely of course) for the POC to be at a level where a single trade for a single contract took place. The peak volume is by definition where the most trade took place so where the buyers and sellers where most in agreement. The PoC will exist where buyers and sellers are in agreement but it certainly wont necessarily be where the most buyers and sellers are in agreement. Jperls excellent trading with market statistics threads have some discussions on this. They are compelling on various levels. In short volume profiles (and VWAP's with SD bands) are statistically relevant. TPO's are most certainly not. if you want some arbitary 'lines' to trade against, sure, use POC, VAH, VAL, floor pivots, S1, R1, yesterdays mid point, whatever floats your boat . They are all decent heuristics but that is all.

<doh> I forgot all about the rather daft (imho) pattern day traders rule.

Maybe take a look at ETF's though don't have a clue whether they are appropriate for scalping, as long as they trade electronically and there is enough liquidity I don't see why not.

IMHO this is one of the more difficult part of trading (more difficult than finding entries). Do you aggressively bring the stop to BE? Probably unwise for BO trades as the break is often re-tested. How aggressively do you trail a stop, if at all? Do you close if price stalls 10 pips before your target? Watching price retrace 50% (or completely) to stop you out above the last SH is not fun. How do these considerations effect your overall profitability, more importantly how do they effect your 'comfortability'? I think that not truly accepting your losses or constantly fretting about minimising them or worse avoiding them completely ultimately can lead to poor execution and indecision. Been there, got the tee shirt.

Is it reasonably straightforward to setup this combo?

The main issue with fine resolution tools is that whilst they will certainly show a turn in price quite often it is not the turn in price. Depending on how you manage things this will likely result in scratches or small profits which is fine. One thing to be mindful of is staying focused on the fine resolution tool. If price bounces and moves away this tends not to be an issue (i.e. it is the turn). However if price chips away at a zone, bouncing but then pushing a bit further, one can (or at least I can) find that it has essentially 'eaten through' the zone without me noticing. I wonder how people deal with this or if they find it an issue? Remaining mindful of where you are and being careful not to get 'hypnotised' by the ticks is important. Personally I am currently still using a 15second chart it still gives a good feel of the 'flow' but you also get an idea of where you are, I sometimes transfer lines onto it and always keep a 5 min chart along side so I remember where I am (as long as I do't get hypnotised by the fater one).

Did you let it run for a while? It only plots from live data not from historic data.

Hi Crazy thanks for the kind words. it is a fairly straightforward task but would still require a fair amount of work. All the information you have is there it's already in the array. It's simply a matter of displaying it. That is not really hard just a bit fiddly. At the moment I don't really have the time to undertake it.

I presumed it would be at the bottom of that bar.... where it broke the low of the previous bar. I might be wrong but that seems to be the notation that everyone is using.

Retracements often are less steep than the trend (but not always). Retracements tend to have diminishing volume where trends tend to have increasing volume (but not always). Retracements may have 2 'legs' (there is a retracement within the retracement) (but not always). Retracements often turn into ranges at the end of a trend (but not always). Retracements should not break the last 'swing point' of the trend or the trend may be over (but not always) The important thing is being able to recognise what is happening. If you cant recognise then a set of 'rules' might help. Numerous people have provided 'frameworks' to do this. Probably the simplest to apply consistently are those based on plain price action.

The favourite chant when things don't work is 'barbed wire'. Aproaching from a different angle I don't really see a DT depending on how you define DT. I would like to see some sort of upward momentum (even if only for a couple of bars straight) before looking for DT's. I didn't really look at EMA's too closely as I don't use them but they will be 'unstable' right after the open. I did get the impression that the main ema trade are again with momentum on the first cross. Again no momentum. All of these things boil down to lack of momentum, this might be easier for some to see than barbed wire.

Bar interval is absolute be it 5 tick 5 minute 5 range 5 contracts or whatever. It is the 'sampling frequency' if you like. A bunch of trades make up a bar but as most would agree that is rigorously defined. Time frame is less absolute (you could even say vague) but it is altogether larger, a collection of bars if you like. One way of thinking about time frame is the whole sample, though most people don't. So for example if you had 3 days of 5 minute bars the time frame might be 3 days. Most people simply use time frame as a vague measure of a larger period of time than the bars on the chart. Personally I tend to use time frame to describe the magnitude (in time...which dictates price range to a degree) of the swings that are my interest (or focus). So for example I might trade a 'daily time frame' and try to catch the main swing of the day. To do this a variety of 'bar intervals' might be useful and 'daily time frame' S/R might prove useful.

Dunno about that, the only market that I can think of where the market maker (specialist) is expected to 'facilitate an orderly market' is the NYSE. Even so I don't believe that there is any requirement on them to fill orders at any particular level. In short I think you have probably been misinformed:)

A quick update if anyone is intrested. I had anticipated lower(and got stopped out shorting round yesterdays close)...that'll teach me to think. Not really much to add except that despite being short again I am mindful of a BO to the upside.

A DAX chart that I hope is self explanatory. The range was 'confirmed' Monday (price could not make new highs or lows) though I drew the lines yesterday (Ive been on holiday). Pretty nice break/ out pull back for those that trade such things though I missed it as I don't usually trade the first hour 'pre market' (DAX opens an hour before the rest of Europe and usually not much happens). It will be interesting to see where support is found.

I was thinking the same thing though just looking at time and sales (or the tape if you like). By plotting bars you are embarking on a data sampling exercise. Practically, anyone who uses 'price' to make trading decisions is a PA trader, so what if they like to have a 20ema VWAP floor pivot or PoC to remind them which way up they are. Good thread title it is often clear what is not PA trading (like just trading from the CCI ) more debatable what is.