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BlowFish
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Everything posted by BlowFish
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She (my GF) believes that she (her Grandmother) first read it in German or possibly Rumanian but had a smattering of Russian already.
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That is not my experience, particularly the EU morning session. If that is sincerely your belief it's probably better to respectfully disagree than argue the toss as we clearly live in different 'realities'. You don't think the worlds largest market (FX) has a bearing on things during one of its most liquid periods? Or announcements from the European Central Bank for that matter. You don't think some of the worlds largest businesses (which are funnily enough not all USA based) have some small effect on the indexes? As an aside How would you use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to see which data set 'leads' the other? isn't it simply a correlation test? Stats is not my strong point but I am always keen to learn.
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I wonder if that is because your daughters account is larger than yours now
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I wonder whether having implicit trust is something to do with it? I think one of the reasons people have difficulty with trading (in general) is that whilst they acknowledge certain 'truths' they don't completely and unconditionally accept them.
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My girlfriends grandmother learnt Russian to read war and peace "as it should be read" (to quote her).
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Indeed, but 'hands on' training of what is actually something that is dynamic is probably a lot to do with it. Maybe also not having picked up any bad habits or mis conceptions. Finally (and related) my 'best' (most effortless, un emotional, 'in the zone') trading was before my first major draw down (wasn't quite a wipe but was pretty major). Big draw downs and wipes are hugely damaging imho avoid at all costs.
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Why Does Support Turn into Resistance and Vice Versa?
BlowFish replied to AgeKay's topic in Technical Analysis
An interesting question. Another way of viewing things is from a more market microstructure type view. Markets exist to facilitate trade. They are systems to match sellers with buyers. The behaviour of markets in general and price in particular can be viewed as a search for liquidity. The reason that these areas are visited and re visited is that they are areas where liquidity (orders) might be found. -
Anyway back to normal programming.... MK, many people that trade 'price action' 'zoom out' to determine S/R. This is not advocating a particular type of bar but 4 hour or daily are commonly used I sometimes use 1 hour squished up a bit. The thing is looking for reasonably 'significant' levels of S/R. I think you can greatly increase your odds of success by initiating trades in these areas. You can take trades at more minor levels and TT sometimes does but the best ones occur at more significant S/R. There is nothing really 'hard' about establishing S/R levels/zones the tricky thing is establishing ones that are appropriate for what you are doing. (significant enough if you like). Sure you get all sorts of double tops tests break outs on a fast chart but they are far less likely to go far and may well re test before they do. In my case if there are not good multi day (or week) levels to trade against I often find myself looking for slightly less significant zones this does not usually work out so well. Irritatingly price often goes on to the more major level and turns beautifully. (had a couple of DAX trades just like that last week) Put anther way a H L LH sequence that is over in 10 seconds is less likely to produce the end of this bear than on that say takes a couple of months to complete. I am not sure if you can see what I am driving at. If you look for support that has been established and tested over a few days and then look for a 'good' 123 to form there over the course of an hour or three you are likely to get a decent tradeable reaction (even if S does eventually break) . Many people talk about waiting for the 'best' setups, to me that is waiting for the best location rather than the crispest pattern. If you take the other trades they are the ones you want to be taking early profits and moving stops to BE asap.
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This was what I was trying to remember...of course just because these facilities are available does not mean a 'broker' has to use them.
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Actually there are two types of 'market'. IB & MBT get there data from interbank feeds you place your trade in the 'real' market with one of those banks. Most brokers are actually bookies they can pretty much make up the prices (though obviously they can only deviate a few ticks) when you trade you are placing a bet with the bookie. If you compare a bookie with a 'real' feed they regularly run the market a tick or two beyond any 'real' quote to trigger stops. Another difference is IB charts mid price between bid and ask though to get filled you need a bank to take your trade (as in any real market you can join the bid or offer or even go inside bid or inside offer). A lot of the bookies chart based on best bid or ask to get filled they simply need to decide whether they want to take your bet or not, of course if they have a lot of bets on once side they might decide to hedge, they have the luxury of slipping your bet to the price they finally get hedged at. They also have the option of slipping your bet to add a tick or two of profit to their bottom line. Short version yes it is just a market but with the bookies you are not participating in it. You are taking a bet on the prices they choose to quote. The bookies can and do manipulate the price a tick or two if it suits them. From what I understand the MT4 platform (back end) actually has those 'features' built in.
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Unusual that the 'proper' feeds poked through by a tick. Usually it is the bookies that run a little further thus triggering orders.
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A couple of my favourite quotes (though always forget who to attribute them to). I guess you know 83.4% of all statistics are made up on the spot
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Could of equally have posted this in the VSA section (though having been the most active part of the forum it now seems the most dormant). I was at breakfirst this morning and over heard a couple on the next table flicking through the papers and discussing this. It got me thinking about one of the key tenets of VSA and other conspiracy theorists (only joking VSA guys). The idea goes along the lines that bad news gives an opportunity for accumulation at knock down prices. Seems to me that it was pretty common knowledge that Dubai inc. was in trouble some while ago. Anyway to get to my point I wonder if this is a case of sell the rumour and buy the news? Guess I should have a look on youtube and see whether master trader and god emperor GH has to say on the subject. I was sceptical of a resort in the desert in the first place though Las Vegas seems to do OK.
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'Delta' is a term that has been coined to describe the difference between volume traded at bid and volume traded at ask. You can learn more about it at marketdelta.com. Investor RT (the charting package) has some stuff on it too. Cumulative delta just means that you are not resetting the delta (you are accumulating the net value). Some people reset it each bar (and look for divergences) some reset each session and use it as a proxy for order flow on the day. Yet others (like fulcrum) run it from the start of the contract using it almost like a proxy for open interest.
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Mr T G, You can often learn something new by how others approach problem. There was a great thread "plotting globex highs and lows" or something similar. What was good about it is that several methods to do it where presented, some from fairly novice coders. Anyway reading back my post sounds unduly critical that was not my intention, apologies.
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Actually that was why I tried to help compared t0o many posters he did a reasonable job of describing what he was trying to do . He posted some code that he had taken a stab at, reasonably clearly described what he was trying to do and posted a chart with an illustration of how it looked and how it should look. Compared to many of the "please help" posts a zillion miles ahead ! I think (though I may be mistaken) there was enough information in the original post to provide a solution. Time will tell I guess! Having said that your advice was spot on for him finding the solution for himself.
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Thats not what he said Mr T G, he simply wants a mark when two moving avergaes ( a fast and a slow) both turn up. Single data series, no stochs, no divergences, unless I mis read the original post and code. this will probably do it though I have simply modified your original code so might not be the most elegant way of doing it. inputs: fastLength(5), slowLength(10), BEx(0.5); Var: longTrigger(false), longTriggerValue(0), fastValue(0), slowValue(0); longTrigger = false; Value1=LOW ; fastValue = Average( Close, fastLength ); slowValue = Average( Close, slowLength ); if fastvalue[1]<=fastvalue[2] or slowValue[1] <= slowValue[2] then {where previous MA's down?} If FastValue>FastValue[1] and slowvalue>slowvalue[1] {if so check if current MA is up} and close>open then longTrigger = true; if longTrigger=true then begin longTriggerValue = High +( range * BEx ); Plot1(Value1); Plot2(LongTriggerValue); end; Cant remember whether braces are EL comments or a MC extension might have to change those.
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Did my suggestion not work? It should have done if the question was correctly expressed in your original post. Once you trigger true nothing in your code ever resets back to false. Either always reset to false at the start of your code -or- have an else clause where you test your conditions. The former will just show the bar that transitions from false to true the latter will show all bars that meet the condition. Simple logic error. Problem solved as far as I can see.
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I seem to remember you mention Sam Seiden at some stage. Yet nnother slant on PA (essentially he trades a pullback to a previous congestion area after a substantial break out) Anyway he also talks about 'odds enhancers'. You can work out most from his material in the public domain. I'm always a little reticent about mentioning other PA practitioners (particularly as Sam now works for an educational outfit that are firmly in the pay to learn camp). Still that does not negate the value of the public domain material if used judicially.
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Interesting Don, stands a lot of 'conventional wisdom' on it's head. Mind you a lot of 'conventional wisdom' is at best based on certain assumptions and at worse rhetoric that is based on supposed 'truisms' that have become enshrined in trading 'law'. I presume your 160 stop is really an 'emergency stop' I seem to recall from the trades you posted you bring it up fairly quickly? I'll check later:)
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Actually with respect I don't think it does (and strictly speaking you may have broken forum rules posting the link ) there have been discussions here that discuss the policy as it pertains to this community. A search should find them. There are some subtleties discussed that that thread you link does not seem to mention. Vendors (and there fans) are free to post on TL (the way I understand things) as long as they do not promote there services here. It's really kind of simple. If the OP wants to carry on posting about break outs, pin bars, and inside bars they should be encouraged providing they do not keep mentioning xy or z service. Seems simple to me....the guy has now been told it is unacceptable to keep mentioning an external service (though a PM from a mod to make it 'official' may be in order). Let him/her post in peace and if it is not of interest don't read it. If you doubt the efficacy or would like to see more information or clarification then request that he provides it. If he mentions xy or z again a ban is probably in order. Simple really. And of course there is always ET for people that get there jollys from out and out forum wars
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- forex price action
- price action
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Trading with Market Statistics. IV Standard Deviation
BlowFish replied to jperl's topic in Market Profile
You might want to review the companion threads to this one, Jerry discusses why he uses developing Volume POC (or PVP as he names it) VWAP and SD's of VWAP in a nutshell they are statistically significant whereas POC and VAH/L are heuristic methods. There are a few other threads that talk about more traditional MP techniques, though perhaps it is not the most popular of topics. -
Searching for Another Memeber
BlowFish replied to GhostofLivermore's topic in Announcements and Support
Top right there is a search box (to the right of the TL banner) click on advanced and you can search for a user. -
Maybe I am naive but I read it as someone who has 'discovered' price action and is excited by the discovery. Perhaps they are also (understandably) rather enamoured by the person that introduced them to the idea. Keep posting charts with your thoughts about them and people will not be harsh as long as you drop the references to this or that service. There are a couple of posters here that are vendors but not sponsors. They are still valuable members of the community largely because they understand it is unacceptable to promote their products here. I have also seen a couple of posters 'chased off' without a fair shake too, that's always a shame.
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- forex price action
- price action
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Quite. It seems recently the thread has drifted toward the trigger (and trade management - that is not a bad thing imho). The 'context' is absolutely as important (arguably more so) a part of the set up, always has been. TT is always pointing out that these trades should be taken at S/R and never intimated that all '123s' should be taken. I do understand where you are coming from (as I said before) sometimes I loook at TT's trades and thing hmmmm I'd favour the short side here (if it breaks that way) where he is lining up a long (if it breaks the other way). There is a saying about how if you do the same thing again and again you will likely get the same outcome. It may well just need the tiniest change to change the outcome. I hope you decide to try and establish what needs to change rather than just starting again. Sounds to me as if just fading the BO's you are taking would do the trick. (I am not being facetious). In any case I think it would probably be beneficial posting some of your chart with your context for the trade. Having established the trigger is almost trivial in its simplicity, it leaves context or management (or a mixture) that must be going astray. Edit: As usual I am playing catch up to the thread and see you have posted charts and stuff has moved on.