BlowFish

Could someone tell me which of these SD bands look correct (yellow or blue). Actually I cant work out why they differ as the actual formula I use is the same in both, I just am summing the bars slightly differently. Be really great full if someone could compare with ensigns finishing values. Note that the YM chart ends at 3.15pm central Cheers. Nick

In the interest of helping the challenge along I'm going to play devils advocate here. :) How did we know (shouldn't that be 'anticipate") the Daly ET was pushing down end of Friday? The intradays (hour 4000v etc) all had the PLDOT pushing price in a trend run up? Flow shifted a little last bar but was still a trend run up and isn't that how HTP resistance breaks? There was a slight shift of flow in the last bar (hourly) but looked to me like it was refreshing to push up above the hourly ET. Imagine the 4000v was similar. As an aside - is your focus time frame the 4000V (presumably with a view to catching the main swings of the day)? Cheers.

A couple of questions. Do you always like to see both conditions before considering a counter trend trade? (flat distribution & PVP aprox equal to the VWAP). I just wondered if there are other situations where a return to the mean/mode might be anticipated. Cheers, Nick.

Couple of quick questions on the 4000v chart I guess the 3 main areas are daily ET- > Live ET. Daily Dot -> Live Daily Dot and EB -> Live EB? With Daily further outs the dark striped blue areas? Are you still a member of the institute? Wondered if much was going on right now? I haven't hung out there since round March. PM me if you think it more appropriate. Cheers.

Indeed no big shakes...always nice to come across P&Lers

Err where did I say that? Have a more careful look at what I wrote, I must say poor observation for a P&L'er. I first came across Drummond early 90's I think it was his stuff bowled me over, it is quite remarkable. The Pldot is actually a thing of beauty in my opinion. My point was it is superior in just about every way to these 'clever' moving averages. It is just a displaced 3 period sma of the (h+l+c)/3 but it does have quite remarkable properties. It still stuns me how often price respects it on all time frames. Having said all that it did take 1000's of hours for me to really get it all down. There are many subtleties a couple that I only discovered recently despite going through the course probably 20 times or more. (With the unswerving support of Ted & Charlie). Let me be clear I got a multitude of things from the course. As I said the multiple time frame stuff ( particularly when coupled with types of trading in each time frame) is probably one of the most powerful things you can discover. For example watching this recent top as the daily and then weekly went into congestion pinging short against the dotted line and then watching the block give way just as anticipated iis just about as good as it gets. Kinda funny the big exaust down (weekly time frame) was a month ago now. Actually that was another great lesson (though I was getting there on my own) to accept nothing without proving it for yourself. That has kind of spilled over into my whole approach to everything and has changed my whole grasp of 'reality'. Sadly most people are 'asleep' when evaluating things - you'll know what I am talking about if you read the psycho paper. Anyway here's a weekly & daily Dax just for fun.

Getting really interesting now. I thought with all the questions you might not have time for this weeks lesson! Great stuff as usual.

Good provocative title! Drummond's stuff is remarkable imo. Interestingly most bits of his geometry match regular geometry in many ways. 11's are pivots 51's 52's 53's match regular trend lines in lower time frames. Geometry of various sorts (Drummond, Trend lines & channels, Geometric retraces and advances) are often respected (does that mean they are not a lie?) Whether this is self fulfilling or something more fundamental in the nature of price movement who knows. The PLDot which is really just a fast MA is remarkably useful it s one of the few 'squiggly lines' I'll entertain putting on my charts who needs super fast super smothe MA's when a SMA does the job so beautifully! Drummond's treatment of multiple time frames is probably the most complete you are likely to find. Golden. Unfortunately the course is probably the most complex you are ever likely to encounter (I found it so at least) thus making pretty dificult to trade.

Fib, Is that a typo? It kinda implies that you can compile easy language studies for NT? Cheers,

Hi PP, I too think it would be a great shame if this thread died. When I finally found my way here it was the main thing that captivated me. Since making it my premier site for trading talk I have I have discovered there are other fine traders hanging out here but I probably would not stayed long enough to find out if it wasn't for this thread. I have you to thank for this and the other participants here have you to blame heheh! Actually I prefer the thread a little slower, the signal to noise ratio is far higher then! I mentioned a few posts back that there where two things I sometimes had trouble identifying. We talked about the first (identifying if enough supply/demand has entered to really halt a trend). What has just been raised here is actually close to my second area for improved observation understanding. The earliest possible identification of the anticipated exit direction of a congestion. Put another way is accumulation or distribution predominant in a range. I saved the more important question for last. Cheers. P.S. feel free to PM me about the BoP

Thanks for your reply. I have been thinking more about this (maybe too much). I think part of the issue is to do with starting indicators at session start. It takes time (well it takes volume but that volume needs time to build) for a 'solid' PvP to build. If you trend from the open you will get quite a flat distribution. In that case the PvP will not have an awful lot more volume than other levels due to the flat distribution. I think I have probably over thought this. Perhaps a better question is how long (into the session) do you wait before trades? Do you have different criteria if the market just takes off or opens in 'balance'?

Jerry I am still trying to get my head around the observation I made in the last thread. Here is probably a better venue! From Thread II: "2) if the VWAP is above the PVP, then more volume has traded above the PVP than below it. The distribution function is thus skewed to the upside and the expectation is that at the PVP, price action should move up." This is the crux of the method to me, the skew (or bias as I think of it). Perhaps this is the error in my thinking. I can't help drawing the conclusion that the VWAP 'leads' the PvP. Maybe this is not a good way of thinking about it. This thread deals with when price and the PvP find themselves in the same place. One way (the one that I have some trouble with) is a) when the PvP jumps to price. Another quote - "When price action is near the PVP, price is sandwiched between the VWAP and an SD or betwen 2 SD's. You might notice that price will tend to oscillate back and forth for a while between the VWAP and the SD, across the PVP line or oscillate between the 2 SD's. The market is thinking." It seems to me ths behaviour is more common in senario b) price moves to pvp. In type a) senarios PvP moves to price, price often continues in the same direction with great vigour. The market is not thinking in this senario it has clear intent! The interesting thing here is the skew is reversed and can remain reversed for some time as the PvP stair steps along with the price action. This seems like a second variation of type a) behaviour that you have not talked about. I know I haven't really asked a question here Jerry. I am simply having trouble with this behaviour -i breakout after breakout after breakout in the same direction. It often occurs when a strong base (PvP) has not had a chance to form and then price takes off on increasing volume dragging the PvP with it in 'stair steps'. Anything you might have to say on this would be welcomed. I have re-posted a couple of charts that illustrate the behaviour 4&5 lead on 7 is seperate. Cheers, Nick

Interesting interview, there are some brutal truths in there, great stuff. I think I'll re-read his book this weekend. At the end of the interview he mentions a web site where there are links to his stuff (proedgefx) I could find nothing. Has he moved on somewhere else now? Cheers, Nick.

Actually that's not strictly true OK OK forgive me I'm being pedantic now By running the indicator real time and updating on every tick you can get precise values, even on a 2 min chart. This is the approach that all the market delta (volume@bid vs volume @ask) type indicators use. I did not suggest this approach because they are limited in application (won't run on historical data, only real time). Ensign is subject to no such limitation. It seems Howard has chosen to implement things this way in the accuracy vs speed trade off. Actually I think it was you that raised the original question Nick, when dbtina started on the new indicator. Maybe I misunderstood the sentiment behind the original question, but I got the impression it was "is an approximation good enough?" As Ensign uses an approximation too (and Jerry uses this to base his approach on) the answer to that would have to be "Yes" . Forgive me if this was not the sentiment behind the question. Perhaps what we should be asking is "could precise calculation make the method more profitable?" Maybe we shouldn't (ask this)! It seems to illustrate that really the accuracy of the tool (i'd go further and say even the tool you use) is not the crucial factor in trading success. I have been watching approximated charts against precise charts and they have a slightly different feel to them but I'd hesitate to say either was better. Actually I quite like using a 'bell' type distribution over the range of the bar. I use a sin wave as I don't know how to generate a normal distribution. In summary accuracy dosen't bother me too much as long as it is within 'acceptable' limits. maybe this is not so for others. Cheers,

Thanks for your continued observations on this. I have always be prone to trying to catch the high tick/low tick. This is a psych issue (ego) rather than anything technical! I'll give your charts and post some more thought later. As an aside is your BoP elders, or is it more like Tradeguiders 'presure gauge'? Thanks again.

Hi Jerry, In your last video series (I think it was the first of the 3) on BO trades I noticed that Ensign updates the histogram at the close of the bar. It seems to evenly distribute the volume across all price levels of the bar. Cheers, Nick

Maybe. Personally I would learn to read price rather than a derivative of price. My experience of Woodies (though this was a long time ago) was things where not consistently applied and I personally could not make the 'system' as presented work. Cheers.

Dynamic DOM re-centres each tick on last price. Static stays centred until you hit a centre button. The latter is far superior other wise you are clicking a moving target to enter trades. Unworkable in my opinion. TT claim to have some sort of patent on the latter though I always thought it was complete hogwash. A search should reveal some of their outrageous demands and assertions. I believe someone has finally challenged the patent in court. Hoorah. cheers.

Maybe I don't get it but wont 'printing' money just make it worthless. Or should I say more worthless when applied to the ole $ hehe only joking. Seriously just injecting money has gotta be a bad thing who wants to have to take a golfing cart full of cash to go and buy a newspaper?

Indeed. I heard (not from Tom but from someone that is quite close) that they had some sort of falling out a way back. The old Hawkes web site made a brief mention of Charles Drummond, I got the impression at some time he had been influential. Seems latterly he has thrown up Murray Math lines too. He has put a rigorous methodology together based round a few simple indicators. I kinda chuckle at the indicators because I think I have a good idea of exactly what they all are and where they came from! Personally I think he should sell the methodology and give away the indicators. I'd like to meet the guy sometime seems that we share some common influences.

I haven't digested this properly yet Jerry, but just wanted to say hurrah hoping that it will answer some of the questions I raised in the previous thread. Cheers,

After a long break Tim Morge has a welcome new article at http://www.medianline.com/ I always enjoy reading how he manages trades. Cheers.

Some random thoughts from my observations. During the overnight session (from a US perspective) it is the European & Asian markets driving things. Why not watch these rather than the overnight session? Really you are using a 'proxy' for these other markets if you look at the US electronic session. Having said that it is useful to see what levels are established overnight and how they hold next day. Nowadays Europe is every bit as 'powerful' at driving things around. The last few days European markets have been pushing through significant levels before the US opens. Once the US day session starts obviously it opens at this lower level. Talking of useful levels I have found daily weekly and even monthly charts hugely useful in seeing what has been 'gapped' through. Try looking at a weekly chart, really illuminating. I'll try and post a DAX one for those that don't have Europe data. Its been hugely 'technical'. Richard Ney has lots to say about gaps and detecting what's real and what's not (though he was talking largely about the NYSE). He alleges the clue is in the predominant trend the previous day, the trend for the last part of the previous day, and the open. Personally I think support is support and resistance is resistance. When it blows it blows! I am not sure if there is anything to gain by analysing when it blows (i.e. overnight so leaving a 'gap'). I think markets really are becoming truly Global and truly 24 hours though empirically stuff seems to happen less often Asian peak. Dog, I'd be interested in how you trade differently when a market opens in balance or 'gapped' out of balance? Cheers.

So target is the upsloping line P1-P4? (or does Wolfe label pivots from zero or with letters, all these different conventions!) Cheers

Hi nick, this would not be needed. There is a single comparison on each loop...is the volume at this level greater than pvp. Store this ticks volume Is the stored volume > than the current PvP No Finish I think I am safe in saying the code is optimal. You'll see when Dbntina publishes. Cheers, Blowish (another Nick)