BlowFish

I came across the 80% rule in 'the secrets of traders'. (side note - lord knows I have bought some junk in my time). Simply stated it purports that if price enters value from one side it will hit the other side 80% of the time. Their 80% trade was simply to short if price crosses down below VAH with a target VAL. Opposite way round for a long. Cheers.

Good advice from AgeKay. I'm not sure what exactly a 'small account' is but the DAX can rip through several thousand euros/contract in seconds. It's certainly no place to be with a small account. I have been trading the FTSE a little recently thats intresting 'feels' more like the DAX than Stoxx. I shelved the DAX several months back as it was just behaving oddly (to me) with strange volumes (block trades probably) and some quite erratic movements.

Actually thats probablly the easy way. I wish this information was available when I first came across VSA. Another way would be to get the free e-book and look at a lot of charts (OK a helluva a lot of charts) to see what its talking about. You could then ask specific things in the thread. There is no substitute for screen time. Well except printing charts out and examining them. Another option would be to take a look at the Tradeguider site. See if you can find any videos where Tom is speaking. Gavin has the spiel down parrot fashion, good enough to find out what VSA is all about. The first half hour of most of his presentations concerns 'what is VSA'. Though of course you will realise that the agenda is to sell TradeGuider. Despite that there is some good stuff there (or used to be). It probably wont be log before you have had your fill. If you want to get behind it all Read all you can by Whycoff (and his pseudonym Rollo Tape). Also visiting Dunigans work and Ganns swing stuff would probably be rewarding. Of course it would be remiss not to mention DbPhoenix's stuff too, so I have. Sadly there are no shortcuts, however if you are trying to establish 'is this for me' you still will need to invest a bit of time to understand what its all about. Thats the catch 22 of most approaches and methodologies. Personally I think you are moving in the right direction but you will need to discover that for yourself.

Trading bigger size is certainly the simple answer. Not neccasarily the 'correct' (or one correct) answer. I would not scale up to aggressively but depending on your figures you should be able to double every few months. Most people have a general 'comfort' threshold. Pushing past that may require some effort. I'd carefully look at risk of ruin figures (the single most important think you can calculate) and make sure you select a position size so that is negligible. You must be doing great if it has become somewhat boring and mundane!

Can I get an invite thanks

I thought MB gave direct access to most of the interbank networks and you just pay a regular commission?

Wasn't there a thread along these lines quite recently? The answer for me and many others for that matter is "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" it's a 1923 book written by Edwin Lefèvre which tells a fictionalized version of the early years of the life story of Jesse Livermore. Every sentence is chock full of wisdom on many different levels. Read market wizards and see how many great traders cite it as the most influential book about trading ever written. Read it a dozen times at least. The style of writing ensures that it is entertaining on every read also. Currently reading "Trading Exchanges & Market Microstructure for Practioners." Absolutely splendid book, I intend to add it to the reviews section but it is taking me a long long time to finish. This one is full of facts and information about who trades and why it details there effects on the markets they operate in and why they slect them. Actually there is probably as much raw information in this book as any I have read on any subject. Despite that it is quite accessible and easy to read. I have a feeling that when fully digested this will become quite 'profound'. Its certainly one I would urge people to read if they want to further there understanding of markets traders and trading.

Personally I'd like to go see Sebastian speak at the London Symposium, but not sure I could put up with all the other stuff you mention Guess I could go and sit in the bar but then by the time Sebastian comes on I'd probably be too 'tired and emotional' to comprehend I guess the symposiums are sold out anyway as I am not getting spam for them. (not the case with the video, book, tea shirt, action figures etc.) Actually that's a funny though Gavin Holmes action figures for gods sake no one suggest it to him. You make a couple of other good points. Its easy enough to learn the dozen or so 'patterns' but putting those together into a plan that can be rigorously stuck to is quite tricky. Also identifying the amount of weakness necessary to invalidate prior strength can be more art than science again making it tricky to quantify in a trade plan. Having watched Sebastian go through charts 'bar by bar' you can see him building a kind of 'composite picture' of overall strength or weakness. I don't think that can be taught per se. More recently I find myself leaning more heavily on price action and to a lesser extent the change in pace of volume. Actually 'price action' is a key part of VSA though it is combined with volume. Cheers.

Dunno, seems to me you get a fair bit more from battlefields. Which kind of makes sense as nuking is risk free battlefields are well....battlefields. You seem to get 10 levels for 7 turns hitting a player there. 1000 odd recruits for 15 turns Cash I cant remember I think its something like 20,000,000,000 per 25 turns. Thats with about 100k terrorists comitted to the campaign. Pleas post what you get from various manouvers so we can gauge how different strats work. OH btw this spreadsheet would seem to suggest you switch to planes after maxing up to launchers. Cheers. EDIT: cant get google to allow others to enter info into the sheet. There's another fairly major online office suite anyone know what its called? Ive forgotten

Im sure anyone trading the DAX would know this but highest volume is often done on the old contract right up to lunchtime of the expiration day! ot sure about other Eurex instruments.

Yes indeed levels are needed to become seargent etc. The difference in weapons you get there is not that great until you have exhausted the low level (and cheep) weapons. I wonder if I can make a spreadsheet without keying all the data? As for levels the only thing that I can see it give access too are new combo weapons and of course nukeing more countries. Having said that my feeling is that the most rapid way to advance both levels and recruits (and cash for that matter) are 'high risk' battlegrounds. I'm not sure what the high risk low risk setting does to be honest. But I have a hunch*. Apart from the risk setting there is the greater actual risk of being in a battlefield where you an be attacked by anyone without repurcussion. Having said that I have been attacked (in battlefields) by people 4 or 5 times my level and beaten them with minimal casualties. This makes me figure level is not directly inputed into combat resolution of course indirectly you have access to 'better' gear. Kinda busy but I should do some tips for battlefields...most are common sense dont hang round if you arent doing anything. retrain and rest recruits when you get more. Always look twice in a battlefield (especially if you see 5 troops there) before attacking. In fact scouta round a bit to see if there are any whales operating. And my personal favourite unmerciful wipe out minnows hopefully without them even knowing who hit them Cheers, * My hunch is that you can't be attacked by absolutely anyone in battlefields but the high risk low risk setting determines how much higher a player can wack you. Seems plausible. I dunno I am on high risk all the way so far. Low risk is for pansies and ellioticians

Indeed Hal, Im waiting for some one to put all the costs vs. attack/defence ratings into a spreadsheet! Me im far too lazy but with a bit of mental arithmetic and lazy rounding off the cheap items seem to give the most bang per buck, that is until you get to sergeant then the fighters seem more 'efficient'. The one thing I have not got a feel for yet is how important levels are (except for unlocking better hardware). I have been attacked by people of higher level with minimal losses. Incidentally the more efficient way of getting levels seem to be attacking territories that have people in (10 levels for 7 turns). Actually battlefields same a good way to raise troops money or levels. The only thing I have not compared with so far is out and attacking.

OK first the caveat - I like my games. So anyway having a few hours to kill today and having used all my turns I thought I'd have a search round and see what was going on in the world of browser games. Anyway long story short I came across Pentacore http://www.pentacore.eu/ I found it rather compelling so far and quite interesting in an abstract sort of way. It certainly seems to have an elegance of design. Anyway I certainly don't want to divert focus from our efforts here but so far I was quite impressed (despite it being pretty complex and a little slow to start). I dont get anything from referals but thought I'd mention it as it deserves support. We now return control to your regular battle ground

Re-Cap from post 1:- ______________________________________________________________ Money Management: * Trade with 5 Lots with Stop Loss 100 pips away * Take Profit on 1st Lot at 50 pips. Move Stop Loss to Break Even (BE). * Take Profit on 2nd Lot at 100 pips. * Take Profit on 3rd Lot at 150 pips. * Take Profit on 4th Lot at 200 pips. * Let the 5th Lot run until you see an opposite entry signal. ______________________________________________________________ So when you report +100 it is 2/5@ +100 | 3/5 Scratch Makes sense now Cheers.

Im kinda confused how much you make (or loose) is a direct function of the MM you deploy isn't it? EDIT: Having said that your MM is clear so if you report +300 that means that price has hit T3 or greater before hitting your stop? But then was stopped on the remainder?

The whole temporary business implies prediction. You can not predict (i.e. you can not know temporary before the event). These approaches/tools are great for seeing what is happening right now. I am guilty of wanting to predict now and then it is a 'psychological trading flaw' and a fundamental human trait imho. Trading need not be about predicting (imho again). Anticipate what might happen (e.g. Supply will enter at 'support'). Monitor what is actually happening now. Take appropriate action (enter long). If things change take appropriate fresh action. If what you anticipated is 'temporary' you can only know when things change. 'Appropriate' might be take half off and stop to BE, close, reverse etc. The trouble is recognising unambiguously and consistently what is happening now. That only comes with lots of screen time.

Try searching ET for posts by 5pillars lots of info and charts on how he does it. This cropped up here a while ago and I had a couple of other suggestions which escape me now. If you are going the system route you might want to consider Neoticker. Its Tick Precise and/or Tick replay features will let you test on bid ask and last data streams.

Funnily enough I have just watched a couple of JB web casts you can find them at CBOT. His trading style seems pretty simple but quite intuitive. (I have a level at 53 there is a volume peak at 48 I'll put a limit sell at 50 and 56 and see if they get filled) Its always hard to guage what the intuitive guys are up to. JB trades against his levels (looks pretty standard S/R) and peaks in the days developing volume histogram. As brown says he is pretty plugged in to the floor (more so on the Bonds I would guess). He seems to have taken a pit style of scalping for a handful of ticks based on order flow and S/R and transplanted it to the screen.

Now you're talking probably read that 20+ times

Not too sure havent tried the plugin.

Fair comment and whilst trading I guess that is the case for most of us. Supply running out at a price or demand coming in. Thats the change in dynamic that we seek to identify through change in pace, volume and momentum. Thats still the dynamic the various VSA 'paterns' seek to identify. Having said that beliefs are important. Chart time is important. Proving it 'works' is important. For some people they like to have an underlying understanding of why it works. (just seeing something work is not enough for us). This can be a simple explanation however. Why does price rise from support? Supply has dried up or demand has risen (or probably a bit of both) Why does support break? supply is still available or demand has not entered the market. /agree JJ perhaps not brutal but honest. Actually its probably the greatest kindness you can do someone telling them they are pissing in the wind until they do x y z. It's like telling your best friend there breath smells when they wonder why they dont get girls.

I've signed up too. Anyone else signing up use my link hehe http://www.combatgrounds.com/page.php?id=1347445 I will get a few extra troops a turn and so will brown as he signed me up! Pyramid selling at its finest lol.

Tasuki, I need to re-read your posts later more carefully. At the core the two 'models' of market activity aren't so far different. MP markets move from 'value' to a new area of 'value' Whycoff has markets accumulated marked up distributed marked down. Both provide a credible framework to make decisions in. IMHO its key to develop your own beliefs, that starts by questioning everything and either accepting or rejecting based on your own observations and reasoning. Have you read Jerry (Jperls) threads? Sounds like a more statistical approach may suit you. Having said that it still incorporates volume and simple price action to trigger trades. I do agree with you about all this 'smart money' 'insider' 'evil manipulator' business. Ney is very zealous in this his books he seems to be a one man vendetta against the specialists (they do have a couple of ridiculous advantages <shrug>.) His particular crusade seems pretty specifically against the NY specialist. Joel talks of merchandising and inventory and on reflection he is pretty neutral on who is smart and who is not. Tom talks of selling/buying climaxes occurring on bad/good news and the 'smart money' using these opportunities to buy/cover. A shame he uses the term 'smart' its rather emotive. As DB says 'big' is probably a better bet. Truth of the matter is if you are long xxx bushels of spring wheat you need this sort of event to unload it. One of my favourite books is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (isn't it every ones?) it clearly describes how players operate when they have large positions to accumulate or unwind. It describes how they will move (test) the market to find liquidity. It describes how they will support a price or even run it up so they can finish there selling. It describes the 'games' professional market operators need to play to achieve there ends. All this in a very 'normal' matter of fact way. Of course when people like tradeguider get involved it obviously suits them to 'big up' the romantic image of things. "With our product, our course, our program, you too can follow in the footsteps of 'the smart money' the guys with inside information the guys that win all the time". Of course the reality is Goldmans chief analyist decides to unwind 20 million citicorp and buy a like amount in notes and euros. Maybe this is smart maybe not. Maybe they will even send a press release to CNBC saying C is upgraded from a strong hold to a buy One things is for sure 20 million shares will go across the tape. Cheers.

There is also a plugin called Fasterfox that I came across when looking at these links. Never tried it but thought I might Be aware that by default it pre-fetches links on a web page. This is how some old accelerators worked. This can be concidered 'bad behaviour' for numerous reasons (for example its likely to increase James' bandwidth costs if several people start using it). So if you do try it out turn this option off and be bandwidth friendly Cheers.

Essentially Yes. Though of course you have to define exactly what a swing is to you. For a scalper it may be a 5 tick pullback for a broader time frame trader it might be the highest high in the last 5 10 minute bars etc. You have to be consistant and should pick something in tune with exactly what you are trying to measure.