BlowFish

Rolling futures contracts is a real PIA. Some data providers (Esignal) spring to mind offer a continuous contract however I believe these are not back adjusted so you will get a jump when the traded volume on one month surpasses the previous one. You might find www.tradingrecipes.com/files/cntcontr.pdf interesting. For long term charts I tend to use the underlying index. This makes things easier but the levels are off however you can still see that price is approaching a long term level. I wish charting software provided a sort of one click option to rollover and back adjust a contract. Cheers.

Exactly. Understanding price action is the key. Is it not every bit as clear when portrayed as a bar? High/Ultra high volume that closed way up off the bottom. The close is what is key, Williams compares it with the previous close and the high/low of the bar, candle guys with the open no big difference intraday. Agree about overly complicating things. Candles have the illusion of simplicity imho. People, especially those new to the business, spend way too much time and energy on 'learning candles' when learning the underlying price action and what it represents is key. As I have said before there are often half a dozen candle formations that portray the same thing. Hows that easy? Also if you read Nihabashi Mark (who seems to know what he's talking about) he goes into great depth about how all hammers (or whatever) are not created equal and how many subtle variatons exist. It's round about then that they either decide 'candles don't work' or think 'uh oh candles are training wheel but I want to learn to ride' and start the real voyage of discovery and try and understand the actual ebb and flow off the market. Later they also discover that the context is just as important as the pattern. One good thing that comes from candle study is that it often gets people into understanding the market rather than looking for better indicators. Nice trade! However I would say that whether it went +2 +4 or +16 was not a function of the spinner or the entry signal at all for that matter. Did you use a candle pattern to get out? I remember last time I was in the room you where shooting for simple +2's glad to see you have found a way to hold for longer anyway. I guess you where risking about +4 assuming your stop was under the hammer/spining top/Doji thing. Also where you happy to take 3 points of 'heat' before it went your way? FWIW I thought eiger's exit was decent for a quick trade, targeting the previous swing high and indeed there was a reaction there which could have easily gone into sideways action. Well actually it does do you trade all spinning top/doji/daddy long leggs/Alabama slammers/whatever? (If they have 'high' volume of course). Are you suggesting that as a complete and viable method of determining entries? I'd like to hear the 1 minute analysis you go through (in the candle thread of course). I think you are overselling here, if only it where that easy. I would bet you are evaluating loads of information about what's happening without even being aware you are doing it. That's fine, each to their own. I'm still not sure why you label yourself a candle trader to be honest seems you are more a PA guy. I don't want to be provocative but it also appears you change slant fairly regularly. (though I know the basis remains the same). Guess that makes you versatile. Coming onto this thread to knock VSA is kinda out of order imho (even though you always do it in a courteous way). A better approach would be 'selling' your approach on the candle thread. To be honest I have not engaged much there as it seems completely discretionary which ones to take and which to pass. Much the same as VSA really Cheers, Nick. P.S. Hope you take this in the spirit it was meant, always quite enjoyed locking horns with you in a friendly sorta way hehe

I think BlueRay converted some metastock code that was originally done by PivotProfiler. You'll probably find it in the indicators section. Cheers.

Fascinating idea Tresor. Which exchanges give real time open interest? That would give an intraday trader a potentially huge advantage. Coupled with volume you would know if people where buying/selling to open/close positions. Momentom I think you might of mis-read the original post , Tresor is saying on the exchange he trades that you can see the change in OE on a tick by tick basis. WOW!

Just thought I'd mention this thread which I am sure you'd find interesting http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f34/andrews-pitchforks-3308.html

Nice to see you back (even for a fleeting visit). Congratulations on the new addition to the family and the new job.

I watched a couple of freeby presentations by Denise and what she said resonated enough for me to buy the workshop. She has rather a unique perspective on emotions and trading that make sense to me. Googling will probably turn up a few free webinars.

Welcome, Look forward to following along. Are those 4 hour bars?

Tough question. Trouble is 'trading' can not really be taught there are certainly very few 'secrets'. Most people would spend a lot of mullah to be 'mentored' by Tiger and would expect to get top advice and even have there game improve. I don't think many would be under the illusion that they could turn pro in a month or six. Having said that I guess the journey can be shortened by a good mentor. Of course the mentee has to believe what he is being told. Early in my education I spent quite a bit of time and money on tuition however just could not accept much of the stuff I was taught. Nihabashi has written in great detail about what to expect from a mentor and what a mentor should expect from a pupil. It's on ET somewhere. Personally I would certainly not enter into any business relationship with someone who's expectations where not congruent with mine.

Actually in many ways they are easier than spotting, I dunno, lets say a long legged doji. (if you can spot them, which I know you can, you can spot a spring). IMHO candle 'patterns' are actually a step further removed from the underlying supply and demand and needlessly 'complex' to boot. For example a hammer / hanging man, a piercing pattern, a long legged doji and a morning star are all pretty similar to me - price goes down is rejected and then comes back up again to finish near where its started. Each to there own I guess

Another way is maintaining a 'synthetic' HTP high low close series based on the lower time frame bar using a multiplier. Maybe this will give you some ideas. Input NumBars(5); BarCount = BarCount + 1; HTPbarH = maxlist(HTPbarH, H); HTPbarL = minlist(HTPbarL, L); if Barcount = NumBars begin BarCount =0; HTPbarH=High; HTPbarL=Low; etc. etc.

This thread is moving to quickly but I'd like to come back to this discussion about time, flow and focus. Its very important. First lets acknowledge that we can only take what the market gives. However that does not preclude deciding what we 'want' from it and looking in the right place for those opportunities i.e. suitable instrument and "timeframe" (time frame <> bar size here). This is one of the most fundamental choices a trader must make, its not an easy choice but its something we have complete control over (provided we can control ourselves). I think traders are less likely to cut short if they pick appropriate size 'swings' to focus on. For example lets say trader X has decided to trade the ES (so he can trade 100 cars at a clip ) He doesn't want to be a slave to the screen nor does he want to leave positions on un-attended. Lets also say he doesn't really want to risk more than a couple of points to make about 4-6 (or perhaps more if offered). This he determines on a variety of criteria, including R:R, account size and a bunch of personal stuff. It is a guideline only, he will determine precise R:R for each trade based on price action. Example trader X now has a set of parameters that will determine his 'focus' time wise. Actually in a strangely circular way he has picked parameters that he thinks will expose him to the market for lengths of time his weak bladder can cope with . After pouring over 100's of charts of the last 6 months ES using a variety of bar types and sizes he determines that on the whole a 60 minute chart provides clear S/R levels suitably spaced for the opportunities he is looking for. He also decides to use a 20k volume chart so he can see the overnight session nice and clearly. Of course at the beginning of the day he marks up his hourly with lines taken from overnight, daily, weekly and even monthly charts and will pay special attention to these areas and even use them as a directional filter, however as they don't provide enough trading opportunities for his particular R:R and exposure parameters he will take trades from S/R from an hourly chart. Next step for trader X is to determine the tools to use for monitoring the 'flow' around these levels. He is concerned if they are a) too fine he might get caught by a 'minor reaction' to a level/zone that subsequently breaks or b) too coarse he will give up trade location for the luxury of confirmation.

Just playing devils advocate but to a trader with a 'monthly' perspective the daily S/R might 'translate into nothing' (or if not nothing, less than they are interested in). Similarly a more hyper active trader (a 'scalper' if you will) might focus on nailing 'hourly' S/R rather than 'daily' S/R. (I appreciate 'hourly', 'monthly' and 'daily' are artificial constructs) There is an important lesson here though (well at least I think so) and that is knowing what your focus is. I fully agree that markets don't trade in nice discrete 5 minute, hourly, daily, weekly, chunks. However, it is convenient when you are trying to decide what size moves you are trying to capture to consider a suitable time frame to focus on. A 50 point ES move will take longer to develop than a 5 point move regardless of the bar size you use to monitor it. Put another way if you want to make roughly 5 points on a trade that will dictate the 'time frame' to focus on, this will tend to suggest suitable charts to use. In this case time frame is not the same as chart time frame it is the scope of the trade. A wise man ( DB someone or other ) once said the chart is just a map not the territory. Having a suitably scaled map for the journey makes navigation easier.

Absolutely Uli, The three examples are all areas where one might deviate from the plan. Acountability is really simple determining how well you stuck to the plan. Of course by going through this process you might discover areas where the plan could be improved or where it dosen't really suit your 'personality'. Actually it can be made more mechanical so to get a 'score' for each area you are interested in. For example say you want to monitor your entries. For each setup correctly taken you would award yourself +1 giving a total of N. At the end of the day reviewing the action the total number of valid setups maybe M. How well you stuck to your plan (as an objective percentage) is N/M x 100. You could look at erroneous entries (E) in a similar way (though would perhaps express as a percentage of valid setups so E/N x 100). I guess most people will be interested in monitoring entries, exits, stops etc. having said that there are all sorts of other metrics that can be measured fairly objectively. It is up to the individual trader to come up with the metrics they want to measure however this sort of % method makes it pretty easy for others to see whats going on.

Been away so a bit behind here. I like the A-F idea and think that could be reasonably expanded somewhat to ranking A-F for a couple of different categories. Those categories might be different for each trader but laid out somewhere up front. An example I took all my setups A-F I didn't take spurious trades A-F I stuck with trades until my exit conditions where met A-F Striking a balance so just the traders most important issues are monitored rather than dozens of relatively unimportant stuff would be key. I would guess maybe 3-5 'elements' would be about right.

Sorry guys not been too active. Real life going Im sure you will boot me if required

Do you find the ET P&L thread useful? In what way? Its one of the few extremely well moderated ones at least. Maybe I am being dense but I cant see how posting a blotter is going to make you more accountable. Maybe I'm missing something. Today brown made 5 trades and 8 points, next day he made 7 trades and 4 points (was he over trading? hell I dunno) next day 2 trades and 10 points (was he missing entries or was that a great day...I dunno). Thursday he took the day off is that cool? Friday 4 trades all hit a -2 stop perhaps that was the best day as he stuck to the plan flawlessly? Don't get me wrong I think its a really splendid concept honestly I do. IMVHO although a blog or a trade diary synopsis thread is a bit more work its going to pay far far greater dividends in fact I'd go as far as saying infinitely greater dividends but thats only because I think posting a blotter is pretty worthless. Anyway keeping the thread going even if Im being somewhat contrary

Assuming that the win rate is 50:50 or maybe a little better, most traders would chew off their own legs to achieve those sort of results consistently. There is no 'holy grail' where you win 85% of the time while only risking 1 to make 10. All you can ever take is what the market offers, well a portion of it anyway. If you are not happy with that you will always be disappointed. To be blunt it sounds like you have un-reasonable expectations. Not sure about what your win rate is, number of trades a day you take etc but it sounds like you should be abe to pretty much generate as much return as you could possibly desire if you can do that consistantly. I guess maybe then its not about generating a return but being 'right'. That is a very dangerous malaise in trading, I know that first hand. Cheers.

If you have no edge it can be show statistically that your best option to win is to go all in on one trade rather than lots of small trades which will surely empty your account. Whether that is considered over trading or not I dunno.

Just another thought a trading room is a possible place to 'be accountable' if it is structured like that. Again you need to let people know what you are trying to achieve rather than just call trades. For example you exit at 36.35 a bit too late/soon with the right sort of room you can state why and hold yourself accountable to your colleagues. Actually in the right sort of room where people know how you trade somone is likely to put you on the spot and say 'why did you exit there'. Walter seemed to use the TL room like that to a degree, Adam also perhaps. Even if you are not being reviewed by your peers the act of describing your actions to other people is likely to make you consider more carefully and so be more accountable to yourself. The more detail the more you are likely to get from it.

To be honest the more you put in the more value its likely to be to you. Without knowing what you are trying to achieve no one can really judge whether you achieved it or not. Sparrows blotter snipette is a good example. Did he do what he should? Did he behave responsibly? Was he accountable? How can we possibly know? For there to be any value to anyone (poster or accountant) there needs to be a set of criteria that the 'results' can be judged against otherwise it's pointless putting it on view. To be accountable to yourself you need to describe precisely what you should be doing. To be accountable to 'us' you need to describe to us precisely what you should be doing. There is no other way, anything less and you are simply paying lip service to being accountable rather than actually being accountable. Forgive the harsh tone, it is directed inward (towards myself) as much as anything

Maybe keepinga journal thread, guess the fashionable way to do that is via a blog nowadays. Theres a couple of prongs to this attack. Simply by keeping a journal you force yourself to be more accountable (depending on how well it's done). Secondly if you outline your goals up front you might get critiques and 'peer pressure' from kindly souls here. I dont think strings of numbers are likely to cut it but short succinct dialogue might?

Short answer is No. The secrets of traders stuff never 'spoke' to me. Some of it seemed out and out bogus. Of the 8 or so set ups this one seemed to have some merit but I quickly realised it was going to be a $xxxx dollar bookend. There was another one loosely based on MP but using first 3 x 30 minute bars as a kind of proxy.

Go for it email! I've spent a couple of weeks going through the Sanuk material and even hung out in there room a bit. It seems like a valid information to me. Having said that I'm 'sold' on PA. It can be used to find areas to trade, it can be used to trigger entries, it can be used for stops and it can be used for targets. Pure and powerful.

I took a break from dax I guess a couple of months before Xmas there where lots of block trades (messing up any read of volume) actually strange volume in several instances. FTSE I find quite similar to DAX though only been on it it about 2-3 weeks. DAX can be pretty spikey too! They both can be thin it has to be said.