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Enigmatics
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Oh I agree with everything you've said. As the months have dragged on since I officially started day trading, I have learned things I couldn't possibly have known before when I used to just chart and read. It's like I'm constantly peeling back another layer of the market onion. In the last couple months I've focused heavily on watching the SPY/Dow, the TICK, the US Dollar, particular sectors, and options volume. It's crazy to think how "compartmentalized" my trading really was when I first began. Volume spread analysis was also key in helping me see the bigger picture. Unfortunately, I took on quite a bit when I started. I only had 10k equity (along with 4:1 buying power) and I was trying to pay bills, pay back money, and build the account. It put me in the position where I've been using margin to offset the lack of capital, but I've kept such tight stops that it's hindered my progress ... even though I know without a doubt when the market is conducive my set up can yield very nice results. I also haven't focused on learning how to properly short the market, which also limits my ability to trade on certain days. I'm freshman when it comes to all of this ..... but I want to complete my degree. I just don't have the proper capitalization to outlast my growing pains.
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I day trade. I have a particular pattern I look for on intraday dippers, a lot of which focus on stocks that break the lower bollinger band .... and as I said before, I use volume spread analysis as my primary gauge for entry/exit. I would like to take more advantage of daily set ups, but I just haven't been comfortable going long in this market, especially when using my margin. I've had to use my margin because I didn't have a ton of start up capital, which is also the reason I am so adverse to widening my stops. That in turn has shook me out of many of these set ups which run pretty hard for an intraday move.
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Unfortunately this is what I've failed to grasp these past two months. My mindset is that I have to eliminate as much downside risk as possible, trying to be overly perfect on entries and it has backfired immensely. It's honestly hard to spread what little money I have left around too, which has become the rub.
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I should also note, I think where I also went wrong was I stayed pragmatic far too long. I was using 5k position sizes as my staple for trades when I could've made more of an impact trading the setups I was most confident in with slightly larger sizes and having to reduce my downside risk by being able to get out faster. There is a gentleman I helped and taught everything I knew. His account since we started trading together is up 45% in 3 months. Alas, the biggest difference is that he expanded his position sizes beyond what I was. All I know is it seems evermore apparent that beyond knowing your setups, it takes money to make money. As my account has dwindled this has become a major issue in my ability to turn it all around, particularly because I depend on it for income. Amazing what already having an income and trading out of opportunity, not necessity can do for one's psyche.
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Honestly the only admiration I have is that he has the balls to go in 15,000 on a penny stock. Other than that his "trading" (if you want to call it that) has no foundation other than what he thinks he's reading about those penny stock companies. As far as my VSA is concerned, I thought I was picking it up rather quickly but now I'm having a hard time determining where I'm going wrong. Spotting absorption, stop volumes, supply/demand, etc. etc ... these were not hard principles to understand. Alas, something's amiss. Take NOK today. I had a position at 6.57 on the second 5min candle after the first had shown reversal on larger than average sell volume. I was also taking into account the previous days action as it seemed people were largely interested in shares at these lower prices. It dips on me to 6.50 and I get stopped out. Went away from it when low and behold it filled it's sell gap from the morning and tested demand around 6.60, upon which it absolutely rocketed up. Hit a peak of 7.02 I believe. Sure enough I brought up the 30min chart and there was a definite stop volume in there. However, I have had absolutely little success lately trying to trade VSA on 30 or 60min time frames, which astounds me given you'd think the "trend" would be better. This is routine with me. I'm around the plays, just not maxing them out or slippage removes me from the equation entirely.
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I tried posting this before, but it didn't go thru .... Trust me, I'm not trading pennies. I got out of that wasteland about a year ago. My efforts have been focused entirely on small and mid-caps.
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I get what you're saying, but know that I don't trade penny stocks. I gave up that wasteland about a year ago when I finally came to my senses.
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No, just aggravated by it. Like I said, I've put in a lot of time and effort.
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I'm primarily using volume spread analysis. I was formerly an "indicator" based trader, but after reading the variations between Richard Wykoff and Tom Williams, I saw the market in a whole new light. It helped to explain why my pattern worked in one instance, but not another. Leading up into April I was really narrowing down the ones I went for well. Then it started happening ..... I was finding that I was constantly exiting trades too early. My little 2-4% were nothing compared to what I was seeing. So I started trying to hold out for more in the trades I was in. Ever since then it's become this battle of either holding too long because of previously missed opportunities, not holding long enough, or just passing up a perfectly viability trade because I'm being overly cautious. I had always had exit strategies, typically using price/volume and moving averages I know to be resistances. I've also been incorporating price by volume bars. The month of April should've been the big move for me. Instead I nibbled at small percentages and missed some really large moves. I've found myself hesitant to go long over multiple days on stocks because my account hasn't been able to absorb the risk. Yada yada yada .... Like I said, it's frustrating.
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I've put so much work into this over the last 10 months trading and the 1.5 years before that charting/absorbing as much info as I could. I have a set up that I'm absolutely STUNNED I haven't broken out with. Instead I'm currently mired in the mental struggles of trading from a dwindling account. Over the past 2 months I have routinely let perfectly viable plays go right by me because I'm being too cautious, even scaling back my normal position sizes in the process. ..... And then today I get the text message from a buddy of mine. He scored $20,000 on a penny stock (CMEY). This is a guy who doesn't chart. He swears by "researching" these often fictitious companies who do nothing but sell shares on the backs of grandiose stories or align themselves with promoters. He knows I'm struggling right now and insisted I "get into" this stock with him. I couldn't believe I was even having the conversation. Throw away all that I learned to jump into a penny stock? "Just trust me man, it's going to .10, this is months and months worth of research!" he said. I'm just beside myself right now. I really am.
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Great thread. I've only been day trading for about 9 months. Prior to that I spent about a year and a half charting and dabbling with a cash account. I was SUPREMELY confident in the setup I was going to trade. Alas, this has taken a lot longer than I anticipated .... go figure right? The issue is not really the setup. It's just amazing to me how I have not been able to take full advantage. I am constantly around stocks that move 3% to 10% and some even larger. The issue lies with me. I just need to get some consistency with my psychology. I'm currently in one of the worst trading ruts I've had to endure. I've fallen into that trap where I'm executing trades with the memory of the last bad one. I've grown increasingly more frustrated from selling too soon before a big move. It keeps happening over and over again. Now perhaps it's a little naive to sit there and think that as a trader I'm going to be able to snag every % of the move, but I'm certainly not getting enough out of the trade. I really need to stop beating myself up over it though. It's just so hard because I've really upped my trading IQ and this setup I trade is something I really feel I can make a career out of. Heck, I've helped tons of other people make money with it. I'm dying for a break out already. I will say that it probably wasn't smart to take all of this on with the port I started with. I expected to pay bills, pay back money, and build my account right off the bat. That's a lot of pressure to perform. I also should've picked my spots better. There have been days when I absolutely should not have been trying to trade my setup because the market was conducive enough. I guess the pressure of trading for income was causing a lot of that. I guess in some ways I'm paying for an education. It's just that the funds are not unlimited and I treading thin ice. I can't imagine what else I'd do. I was so unhappy in my previous line of work. This is the only thing that has made complete sense to me.