phantom

My apologies. Phantom

Let's see if we can clean this up a bit... The "going shopping", as steve46 described, is a part of the accumulation side of the coin. Commercial interests must own such a large quantity of a stock, commodity, etc that the buy limit orders they place will exhaust themselves at a given price range. The retail, selling side of the trade cannot overcome the sheer number of orders at the given price range the large interests place their demand at. This is why the sell orders "dry up." But because of the sheer number of orders that need to be filled, the buyers must buy in batches, and not "at the market," or they will pay too much to fill all the orders that they need to execute their trading plan. So, they execute in steps, with limit orders. When these "batches", or subsets of the entire order are filled, they must wait until the market comes back to the price area that they are okay with so that they can execute the next subset of orders. This continues until all their order requirements are fulfilled. On the other side of the coin is the distribution of inventory that commercial interests hold. Batches of sell limit orders at the desired price ranges are systematically placed. Retail buyers cannot overcome the sheer number of sell limit orders that are stationed in the market. So the buying "dries up." Since all the orders cannot be sold in a single price range due to the sheer number of orders that need to be filled, the selling is done in phases, or steps, when the market returns to the desired price range to meet the requirements of the commercial interests involved. Just as they do not want to pay too much to acquire the desired inventory in the accumulation phase, they also do not want to receive too little in the distribution phase for their inventory. The phases of buying or selling create the "nodes" that steve46 referred to earlier. Phantom

Good question. Short answer: not when they are used in conjunction with Bollinger bands.

I saw Larry Williams three different times at the Las Vegas Traders Expo back in the '90's. Larry is a fascinating fellow, and he has made a SHLOAD of money trading the big board S&P as well as the 30 yr bond market contracts. He is not particularly fond of pattern trading. He is not a fundamental analysis trader, per se. (He trades with the commercials, though) So how does he make his millions? Volatility breakouts! There must be something to this...

WOW. Now THAT was a mouthful! Think I'll stick to manually trading breakouts of ranges with evidence of price rejection... I gotta go wipe my forehead off...

So what are you saying, D.: you took all three trades in these related markets?

Davt, I'm having a very difficult time discerning what I'm seeing here. Could you explain your signals a little bit, because your images are lacking context. Maybe you could back out and give a bigger picture of what we're looking at, ie show an hour's worth of bars per picture or something along these lines? At this point, its too tedious trying to figure out what we are supposed to be seeing in your images... All I can guess is this: you're trading 1 minute candlesticks with some sort of breakout system. Am I in the ballpark here? Are these hammer bars or what? Phantom

Never mind, tams. I'm done sparring. I'll just chalk your input up to your cantankerous nature. Phantom

RE: Insecurity TAMS, Not so much about the value of my writings so much as the value of my friendships. I'm an emotional kind of guy. I was born that way. What's your excuse? Phantom BTW, I noticed you removed your "like" of the post you cited. Any particular reason?

I think the issue here is: Can one articulate one's logic in plain English? Talk is cheap, Tams. How about you posting one of your trades where you coded the entry and exit and had the computer bring you a REAL profit? Otherwise, we can assume you're only playing the Devil's Advocate... Phantom P.S. and if you reply with something lame, like, "you can assume whatever you want..." We'll have to "consider the source" from here on out.

Well said, zdo. My experience working with my brother, who is a high level programmer, attests to your insights. We've tried, but we just couldn't do it. I'm not saying that it is not possible. I am saying that our results were not reliable. Huge difference. Phantom

RE: Mostly subjective. They work if someone reads them in correct context. Now THAT'S what I'm talking about!!! Phantom

"What do you use as a profitable exit signal for the initial entry, or after adding - for the total position?" This is a question I received from one of my readers and I'd like to answer it here. As previously stated, I place my risk stop behind the most recent price rejection bar and wait for one of two things to happen: 1. Another consolidation breakout - I move the risk stop/stops behind the new hammer/doji bar (I may or may not add to the position depending on the overall picture). 2. An extended range bar or "windfall profits" - I'll either bring my stop/stops fairly close to the current price to lock in profits or, depending on evidence of prior S/R, I'll take the money and run. The real "cheese" in this game comes from building a position, be it whether you trade intraday or hold for days/weeks/months. So I try to add to my initial entry at least once and maybe twice if possible. This is what makes the CL, NG and EC markets so good: they offer extensive breakout moves on a regular basis with opportunities for building size into the trade. Thank you Chris for this question. Hope this helps. Luv, Phantom

OK Pat. Here are a couple of setups on the 30 range CL charts (ie 30 tix per bar) and... Each setup had a b/o of a consolidation channel followed by a failed test. The problem with 15 minute bars in the CL is that when this market moves, it goes very rapidly. So 15 minute bars will have very large ranges that require a lot of risk to trade. These bars only require $320 risk per car (1 tic on either side of the signal bar) which is pretty low considering the extensive ranges of the moves this market makes intraday. Hope this helps. Luv, Phantom

(MACD) divergence really shines during counter trend tests such as a-b-c consolidations. You'll see the divergence between the a and c legs and the corresponding macd peaks/valleys very clearly in most cases. Luv, Phantom

1 Willingness to take larger risks. 2 Staking a much larger position in one market. 3 Risking more than usual across multiple markets. 4 Not adhering to trading plan. 5 Willingness to ride losses longer than usual. 6 Maybe I’ll jut take a chance attitude. 7 Not taking profits at predetermined objectives. 8 Feeling of the best is yet to come. Aren't 1, 2, 3, and 5 the same thing? Phantom

Divergences work like a champ when they are used on counter trend tests (ie counter trend double bottoms) while trying to enter on a resumption of the trend. They are not so effective when trying to pick market bottoms or tops. Luv, Phantom

DAVT, I asked you a simple question. If you won't answer pertinent questions, how do you expect to make any friends? Phantom

TAMS, Your smack is so fresh. Where DO you come up with this stuff?

zdo, Is this your original material? If so, you should be a political satirist. This is brilliant stuff! Luv, Phantom

RE:How much of my trading is automated? I haven't automated any of my trading. 100% manual. Luv, Phantom

Pretty good answer, but did you have to be so rude before you delivered it???

No, he's a politician...

No, he's a friggin' politician...

That's why I said "if one MUST buy"... Phantom