phantom

I promised to provide info (fodder) such that a previously clueless trader can get profitable; I never promised anyone profitability per se. That, of course, would be in violation of CFTC regs. Please come here to learn, you're not invited if you're here to "stir the pot." Nes pas?

I promise to provide enough fodder to get you profitable if you aren't brain-dead, but I refuse to spoon feed you. Fair enough?

I missed no point. I understand all of the ins and outs of the beginner's plight. But its been my personal experience after working one on one with many individuals over the years that the number one reason people wash out in this business is a lack of patience waiting for high probability breakouts to occur. Trade selection and risk management are the ONLY two factors a trader has control over. I see beginners time and time again try to chase a moving market and take unnecessary losses because they get trapped in the volatility. I realize that newbies don't know enough to know why they are correct or incorrect in their trading but there are myriad books available on trade setups, And way back when, I was able to make ten thousand dollars on a single trade I got from the Street Smarts book just by cookbooking it when I had no idea how to trade correctly. My point is this: this business is about positive expectancy and execution. If you bypass the "action junkie" mentality and use a modicum of emotional control while waiting for good setups like the one I gave you above, you stand a much greater chance of not only surviving the game, but actually making money while gaining the experience necessary to trade well week in and week out.

This is the July Beans showing a perfect consolidation breakout followed by a hammer. Notice the "rattail" that helps identify the hammer. See if you can identify the other two hammers in this down move (both excellent places to pyramid your position). This is only one of several breakout systems I developed and trade but I'm able to get in on several sustained breakouts each week with this method in just the currency futures alone. Hope this helps. Luv, Phantom

Sorry I joined this forum so late; I'm appalled at the misinformation floating around in these forums. The fact is that VOLATILITY precedes price movement, and there is really no human way to discern the relationship between volume and price movement in tradeable terms. This is why most pros have gone to tic charts, which eliminate the volume constant altogether (basically all tic bars on a chart have relatively the same volume). When a market goes into consolidation, the price bounces off of short term support and resistance. While it does take an increase in volume to initiate a breakout of S/R, I contend that its not anything one can measure with consistency, because not only does volume increase when a breakout is occurring, the volume also increases when the market is reversing (see squat pattern in Bill Williams' TRADING CHAOS). But when a tic chart shows a consolidation breakout from a 4 or 5 bar wide consolidation pattern, the breakout bar is generally relatively a big green breakout bar or a big red breakout bar (referenced to candlestix) which closes outside the consolidation range and the volume is relatively equal to the preceding bars in the consolidation zone. I stopped looking at volume relationships long ago because there are surer ways to create trades that have great reward to risk ratios and low risk tolerances. Study volatility relationships to price, not volume relationships, and save yourself YEARS of frustration... Hope this helps. Luv, Phantom

I read somewhere on this site that technical analysis doesn't work for day traders. It sounds like most traders are having a hard time discerning what's important and what's fruitless with regards to intraday signals. I am starting this thread to cut through the clutter and tell you how the markets can be traded in ANY time frame. In this lesson I will explain the two most elementary technical signals on the chart: price rejection and price acceptance. I'll bet that most traders have a hard time determining the general intraday trend and I believe this is due to your dependence on ultra short term charts, such as 1,2,3 or 5 minute charts. Moving out to 15 minute and 30 minute charts one can see things that are basically invisible on 1-5 minute charts. What I like to see on a 15 or 30 minute chart is a hammer or doji candlestick following a consolidation or range breakout. What is the psychology behind the hammer? Price moved from the breakout zone to some new level. Then price then retraced towards the consolidation zone and was rejected (hammered) back into the direction of the new trend. The breakout of that hammer bar IS THE ABSOLUTE SAFEST BET YOU CAN MAKE!!! Why? Because if the market just got hammered away from a price level, what do you think the odds are that price will immediately return to that level? Not very good odds at all. The doji is similar in nature because it still shows price rejection on a lesser scale, but also vividly displays the mini-consolidation which leads to a continuation move. And both breakouts CLEARLY DISPLAY WHERE TO PLACE YOUR PROTECTIVE STOP, at the other end of the hammer or doji bar following the breakout of that bar! Since the number one rule of trading is to always know your risk BEFORE you enter a trade, this is the best indicator in trading. (It doesn't hurt to have MACD confirming your trade direction, but it is not imperative). Just use the 20 period moving average as your trend filter and NEVER trade against the trend on the 15 minute chart. Price acceptance is when the market moves to a price level that previously turned the market around but this time doesn't, thus indicating that the market may still go further in its present direction. This is most useful when the market is searching for support or resistance after a prolonged move and you are trying to decide whether to exit or add to your position. I'll leave trade management for another discussion. Hope this helps! Luv, Phantom

If your price zone is in the area of 24-25 for this example and this is a true up market, I would expect serious price rejection back into an upward and fast market; not much time for pros to accumulate under these circumstances. If, on the other hand, the market does not reject price at the wave's #5 point, ie 24-25 region, and price is accepted, I would expect this market to continue on down for some time... This, my friends, is just how the markets work. Luv, Phantom

Don't try to make money? Are you out of your mind??? Of course you should go after profits right from the start. Just remember to look for trades that have a decent probability for a high reward to risk ratio (such as 5 or 6 side-by-side bars on a 120 minute chart in just about anything breaking out into a steady move on a 15 minute chart: trade any 15 minute bar that shows price rejection, such as a rattail candlestick; risk half the rattail range and lock in profits as the move breaks from your entry zone...) How dare you advise people to settle for mediocrity when one needs to build successes in this business to stand a modicum of a chance at success??? Luv, Phantom