Tasuki

My one cent's worth: I was really hoping that SebMan would address this anomaly, but he did not. Unfortunately for this question, he chose a 10 minute timeframe, but if you looked carefully at the time in question, his chart did NOT have a volume spike. In fact, the volume went down during that time period on his chart. I use Tradestation, which also had the volume spike that appeared on your chart. Bert, what charting package are you using? The reason this is a serious issue is because Volume Spread Analysis has an Achilles Heel---BAD DATA. On this thread we have occasionally heard disparaging remarks about oscillators and other such indicators, but the one thing they have in their favor is that they smoothe out the data, so one or two bad data points won't throw you off your game. With VSA, if you get a couple of bad bars in a row, it can really throw you for a loop. I'm sure that a more thorough discussion of data quality belongs on some other thread, but just a heads up for this VSA forum--bad data can lead to bad trades (caveat emptor).

th, bubba and all, Why (oh why?) did that beautiful bullish WW fail? Because you're not thinking about the psychology of the trade. In a true bullish WW, point #2 should entice the breakout suckers to go long (at exactly the wrong time). Well, when this point #2 arrived, it was almost ready to close the gap from yesterday. Would any damn fool breakout trader go long at this point? Hell no, everybody's looking to go short, now that the gap has (almost) closed. In fact, the market was so weak, it couldn't actually make that last little bit to really close the gap. So, while the pattern had the right shape, it didn't fit the psychology of the trade at all. Wolfe Waves are about more than geometry. It's geometry + psychology---when these two come together, then (and only then) do you have a high percentage winning trade. Cheers, Taz p.s. the attached chart shows the same trade on a 5 minute chart, to illustrate the gap closure. Hope this helps.

monad, The local surfers here in sunny southern California have an expression that's worth keeping in mind: "It's all good". In the case of Sebastian's market analysis, it's extremely good. As for my indicator, yeah, it has some value, but nothing close to an experienced eye. During last night's video, Sebastian said at one point that a proper analysis can get tricky at times. Well, my indicator can sometimes help to some degree to elucidate for untrained eyes what experts see effortlessly. The attached chart gives two examples of this. Sebastian said on one bar "must have been alot of selling" and yes, you can see it right on the updown volume indicator. Despite the fact that it was a nice, strong up bar, Sebastian knew from experience that there had to be alot of selling---the benefit of a trained eye. Well, for those of us who don't have the trained eye, as yet, the updown volume indicator shows you there in black and white (OK, red and green). On another bar, he said, "must have been more buying than selling". Of course he was right, but if you need confirmation, the updown volume indicator shows you, plain as day. Monad, I never said anything about starting a new thread. Why would I? I was just trying to make a contribution to the VSA thread, as I thought maybe my updown volume indicator could be of some benefit. Some other posters suggested a separate thread, and that's fine for them, but I never proposed anything like that. All I suggested was putting the indicator on your VSA charts and watching it for a week, see what you think. Please, PLEASE, let's keep the conversation civil. Your "trumpeting" sarcasm isn't welcome, in fact, it hurts. Remember, amigo, "it's all good,"

Sebastian, I just want to join the chorus of applause for your veritable tour de force. We owe you a great debt of gratitiude for sharing your knowledge with us. Folks, I recommend watching this video over and over.

Oh heavens, not another book I have to read!!?? RAVIN, please spill the beans---who the heck is "Vadym" and what's the name of his/her book? (and, what's it about?) OK, exactly how have I (accidentally) incorporated Market Delta concepts in realtime trading? Yipes. I just heard about Market Delta yesterday. Looks really interesting, but expensive.

Berg and Blow, First, you're most welcome. In private messages I've gotten several positive comments. Someone even said I should call it my "world famous" indicator. In the public forum, however, I've mostly gotten criticism or dismissal . Glad to hear you'll give it a try. Regarding the hours, yes, normal session hours. Don't tell anyone but I've found that there are a few moving averages that work (VSA purists would be rolling over in their graves if they weren't still alive!), and the 34 EMA on the 5' chart is one of them. If price marches up to it in that lockstep fashion that it did today, and all the while volume is dropping off, and you also get upthrusts and no demand bars, then there is more chance of snow in hell than an upside breakout through that 34 EMA. Regarding "no demand" vs "no supply", all I can say is, "Location, location, location". The same type bar with the same type volume pattern could be no supply if it's found during a consolidation at the lows of a market, or no demand if it's found during the consolidation at the top of a market. Capiche? Taz

Hello Percy, Well, it is possible. Just look at today's trading action on the ES (or probably any of the index futures contracts). In short, what you would look for is: 1) "upthrust" thrusts up past resistance but closes near low medium range bar medium volume (just enough to make the breakout suckers think we're gonna rip) closes near low of bar 2) "no demand" narrow range bar volume lower than the previous 2 bars See attached chart. This is a clear an example as I can think of for your "anvil" trade. cheers, Taz

OAC, I've read Wolfe's "balance" argument, and I don't buy it, probably because I don't see anything being balanced. What I DO see, however, is the pitchfork in the Wolfe Wave, thanks to your great chart. The Chinese were right with that "picture worth a thousand words" proverb. If you can explain the balance thing, I'm sure I'm not the only one who would be benefitted. For starters, where's the fulcrum in the chart? All I see is fear and greed careening from one pivot to another like a drunken sailor. I see no reason nor rationale for "balance"--to me that sounds like "over-intellectualization." ....but, I'd be thrilled to be proven wrong....always willing to learn.

wave, OAC, could one of you fine folks give an example of the lines you're talking about, SVP? I'm really interested in the connection between Andrews pitchforks, which I've studied through Tim Morge, and Wolfe Waves, but I'm not clear on how the two work together...a picture would be worth a thousand words. Tx, Taz

Geez, Sparrow, I really appreciate the help, but some of those mirror sites contain the word "Russian". Given the terrible viruses that are coming out of Russia, I'd be too scared to play with them. Out of general interest, what is the relationship between MDAC and the "Dot NET version 2 ??? Are they two names for the same thing, or completely unrelated, or interconnected somehow? Needless to say, Microsoft isn't going to provide any tech support for such questions.

Hey Sparrow, glad to see you here too (thanks for the help with Ninjatrader--I still can't figure out where to find that Microsoft program I need). Anyway, like waveslider said, it would really help to identify the points of the Wolfe Wave so we're all on the same page when analyzing a chart. If I'm seeing what you're seeing, then...no, actually, I'm not at all clear on where you would draw your pivot points. General info for all: Point #2 should sucker in the Greedy Breakout (or Breakdown) traders. In other words, point #2 should pierce the resistance or support level immediately to the left on the chart, making breakout traders say to themselves, "here we go, let 'er rip" and they get in at exactly the wrong point. Point #5 should scare the pants off these same breakout/breakdown traders, and make them finally throw in the towel, selling (or buying to cover) at exactly the wrong point. They've stupidly held on all the way from point #2 through point #3 and point #4 and now they've given up on the trade. Ergo, they very best point #5 pivots are ones which form very rapidly, with a nasty, steep drop (or rise) from point #4 to point #5, and also, the point #5 should definitely break the pivot at point #3--when that level is broken, it's the last straw for these n'er-do-well breakout/breakdown traders, and they give up at point #5, only to tear their hair out when they see price reverse smartly. Hope this little psychology lesson helps when hunting for Wolves (definitely not an endangered species in the forest of the markets, but not every wedge makes a Wolfe). BTW, virtually all of this comes from Waveslider, who's the pro here. Hope I've represented it well. If not, blame me, not him. Glad to see more participation here.

Monkey, thanks for the link. I went to the site, but it's a Microsoft website, so of course it's completely confusing. If I may, I'd like to ask a couple of questions: 1) What's the relationship between MDAC and this dot NET thing? Are they the same thing, or unrelated? 2) On that website link, where's the download page? 3) When I click on the "Validation" button, I get a Security Warning, which asks if I want to install and run "Windos Genuine Advantage". Generally speaking, I don't want anything from Microsoft that I don't absolutely need. Do you know what this "Genuine Advantage" is all about? 4) What does "validation" have to do with the software I apparently need to run Ninjatrader? Sorry for the sophmoric questions, but my natural hatred of Microsoft is "validated" (pun intended) when I see them throwing curve balls at me. All I want is the bloody download of whatever software Ninjatrader requires. Thanks in advance, Taz

Thanks, Sparrow. dot NET sounds like just another way for Microsoft to get its claws into every program on your computer. You know what they say, "Beware of Geeks bearing Grifts." That's Bill Gates and comany, in spades. Oh well, if Ninjatrader's made it a requirement, I guess there's nothing I can do. Speaking of suspicious, why would Ninjatrader make its program available for free? What do they get out of the deal? Apparently, it's a very sophisticated program. I can't figure out (yet) where they make their money. Thanks again, Taz

Thanks, Sparrow. I guess maybe the problem is the dot NET thing. Never heard of it. Of all the computer programs I've got on all my computers, including several charting and online brokerage platforms, I've never found a single one that used this Microsoft program, if that's what it is. Well, I guess there's a first time for everything...I just hate using Microsoft products unless I have to do so. They have a bad habit of screwing up your registry. I'll check out your link and see where it leads. Can you give me a clue what Microsoft's .NET does, and why Ninjatrader would require it (but not Tradestation, eSignal, PATS, InfinityAT etc. etc.).? Thanks again, Taz

Hi folks, I've heard such good things about Ninjatrader (and its free, supposedly) so I decided to download it. The download and setup seemed to go fine, but when I doubleclicked on the icon on my desktop to run the program, I got a veritable litany of error messages (should be six PNG files attached showing the error messages). Is this all Greek to everyone, or has anybody encountered this nonsense before and know what the heck to do about it, how to get the program to run? Thanks in advance, Taz

Hlm, you're a genius. Thanks SO much! Taz

Well, it's a start. I can hear the audio, but it sounds like there's a video that's supposed to go with it, which I can't see. Can anybody see the video portion? If so, what player are you using? Any special settings?

Sebastian, I donwloaded it, but it won't open. the file extension is .CAMREC, which I guess none of my video programs will recognize. I've got: Quicktime Windows Media Player DivX Player RealPlayer Winamp IrfanView ...and none of these will open the file. I'd sure like to see your analysis. Anybody have an idea how to view this file? I tried re-downloading and choosing "open" instead of "save" but that didn't work either. Taz

Well, at least one person (yours truely) has been out of the loop. No, I don't know what Tom/Todd have said on the subject of up/down volume. Actually, I would be surprised if they had anything at all to say on the subject, given the fact that Tradeguider can't view up/down volume (that's already been established by someone on this thread who apparently knows). PP, please enlighten us as to what Tom and Todd say about up/down volume. Either here or that other thread, your choice, but I'd really like to know. I don't recall any discussion in Master the Markets, maybe I missed it. Was it perhaps mentioned in the bootcamp CD?

Blowfish, here we are agreeing to disagree again. The volume analysis I'm proposing, with its up-inside-down indicator, is of little value unless it is put in the context of Volume Spread Analysis. It is able to elucidate VSA to some degree, but it is not different or separate, at least not in the way I am trying to present it. Sorry if I've done a poor job of that, but let me repeat one example---when I first presented this idea, I started out by mentioning that this double volume indicator could show you the "hidden" buying or selling on intraday charts. As I hoped to show in my last post, this method has much more to offer than just shining a light on hidden volume, but if it did nothng else, it would help traders to see when the big money is starting to turn the boat around by "hiding" volume that will eventually take the market in the opposite direction from where it is currently headed. As I think you will see if you watch this for a while, the up-inside-down volume bars can provide useful information to many VSA setups (no demand, tests, stopping volume, etc. etc. etc.), but without VSA, the volume bars make little sense. Rather, they complement each other.

Ravin, You're asking for the nuances, and that's cool. So, let's go through the four bars you've highlighted. From left to right: 1) stopping volume--if this were simply total volume, what would you see? You'd see one humongous green bar, and they'd tell you that there was very likely selling hidden in that bar. Well, now you can see the selling right there in front of you--if the bulls really were taking over the earth, as it would appear with such a beautiful green WRB, then why the hell is the red volume bar 2/3 as high as the green bar? Why, because there's your hidden selling, staring you in the face. This is EXACTLY why I recommend this type of volume analysis. 2) Here, the price action has been down, and the bar in question is down, but the volume has definitely dropped off, and as you can see from this bar and the previous one (and the the next few after it), the green volume bar is starting to catch up to the red volume bar, showing that the buyers are starting to "nibble" at the market at these prices. It takes a little while for the boat to turn around, and for prices to go back up, but the fact that the green bars are starting to match the red bars in size suggests that at least the selling pressure is abating. 3) Here, the price has been going up smartly, and it looks like blue skies and sunshine for our ES, until you notice that the volume of buyers has decreased on this bar, giving you an advance warning that maybe all is not so damn rosy. The very next bar shows red overwhelming green on the volume, which is a definite warning sign. 4) Here, the price has been going down briskly, and the red volume is nearly identical to the previous bar. So, how come the green bar is nearly twice as high as in the previous bar? Why, because this is "hidden" buying, hidden no longer. I keep asking people to just watch this (preferably with an open mind) for a week because the nuances of this method are numerous, and they do NOT make sense UNLESS you put them in the context of VSA analysis.

Blu-Ray, good post and analysis. Yes, it'll be red on the time and sales because you bought while the price was going down. But it won't appear on the volume bar because that was one measly contract, and each bar represents hundreds or thousands or even tens of thousands of contracts. Now, if you were to see four trades go off at once on the T&S, each one for 300 contracts on the ES, and they were all red, then you should sit up and take notice, because it's likely that somebody or somebodies knows something that you don't, and maybe you don't want to go long with your one contract into the teeth of 1200 contracts going off as the price goes down. All I can say is, watch it for a week and you'll see that it works.

Actually, bh, I was thinking that TS wouldn't even accept a volume bar setting of such a large number, 176,500. I was mistaken, however, because I just tried it on my TS 8.2 and it actually worked. To my utter amazement, I asked for 60 days of data, and (strangely) I got three months of data. Well, color me amazed.

MC, see attached. My "famous" up-inside-down volume indicator is the essence of simplicity. I simply put both upvolume and downvolume indicators (standard Tradestation issue) on the same subgraph, and arrange them so that the upvolume is inside the downvolume. Personally, I put this double indicator on two timeframes---I include it on a five minute chart, and also a one minute chart. With the one minute chart, you can more easily see how the volume is unfolding as the five minute bar is progressing. There are lots and lots of cool nuances to watching the volume this way. As I've said before, those of you who are volume freaks (and everyone who trades with VSA should be, IMHO), please put this on your charts and just watch it for a week. You'll be amazed how much information you get out of it. Yeah, there are lots of subtleties, but that's a good thing. One word of caution from that famous trader Yogi Berra, "It ain't over 'til it's over." In other words, don't make the mistake (speaking from experience here) of assuming that the volume pattern on a bar will be such-and-such until the bar actually closes.

Beautiful chart, bubba. Geez, that 2000i is one strange program. I've got a copy but I can't get it to work for some reason. The unlock code somebody gave me isn't right, or more likely I don't know how to use it. Seeing your chart makes me want to figure out how to use 2000i because a 176,500 volume bar chart is completely and utterly impossible with Tradestation 8.2, and since I just love volume bars, I'd love to get such a longterm chart (goes back over a month!!!) with plain volume bars.....you see, I've learned something by being able to see the whole chart...thanks for reposting. The thing that looks strange about your Wolfe Wave is that the 1-4 line (the white line) is nearly flat. I'm no WW expert, but something about that doesn't look right. If it IS right, then your chart is predicting that the ES will revisit 1460. Well, let's see what happens!