Tasuki

Thanks to all for your expert analysis of my chart. Here, as requested, is a chart with the broader context and some additional thoughts. While it's true that the VSA experts consider carefully the context of a signal, it still seems that they analyze the market bar by bar. Eiger was of course correct in pointing out that my chart didn't give the context, but that was intentional. What I was hoping was that the pattern of the bars themselves would tell the story. For example, the VSA patterns that CW describes require only four candles--the candle being analyzed, the previous two (to determine if volume is greater or lesser than the previous two) and the bar following (which must be up or down for no supply or no demand, respectively). Looking at my original chart in this way, Eiger has pointed out what CW calls a high volume test, on the candle one prior to the first dotted vertical line (Eiger's point C). If I'm remembering correctly, Tom Williams would call this a "failed test", meaning that there is more supply below. This is a sign of weakness. yes? Furthermore, the Test at Eiger's point D is also NOT on volume lower than the previous two bars, but clearly greater than the previous two bars. Yet another failed test, and another sign of weakness. So, bottom line, even without the longer term context there were two candles showing clear (to me) weakness. The broader context would only have reconfirmed your suspicions that a short trade was in order.

Blowfish, in what way is your approach more efficient?

VSA question. Price in lazy downtrend, falling more than rising. Then price flatlines for many bars and volume goes down significantly. In VSA terms, would this mean "no demand" or "no supply"? Is there anything in this chart (attached) that suggests whether price will continue to go down or will rebound?

Blowfish, I 'm using mostly just the basic indicators, CCI, MACD, RSI, stochs, a few moving averages. How do you know if an indicator is updating on every tick? I can't tell myself by looking at the code. Is there some way to tell the indicator only to update if the value changes, rather than every tick whether the value changes or not?

Thanks for the reminder, Kiwi. Putting on my thinking cap (fuzzy and mouse-infested from disuse) I seem to recall now that Morge, Andrews et al only give one percentage that they call reliable, and that's the 80% rule that you mentioned. After price has hit that medianline, it's anybody's damn guess as to where price will go. It may bounce, or it may zoom through. If it does bouce off the medianline, however, there is a reasonable chance (no percentage given that I recall) that price will hit the upper parallel from whence it came. By contrast, if price zooms through the medianline, it's expected (with some probability) to reach the further sliding parallel.We'd better hope that doesn't happen this time!

Criminy, Waveslider, that's about as clean a pitchfork as you could hope to find. If it don't bouce here, I'm calling Tim Morge!

Alex, you can use TS for charting only, as I do, but the files for trading will still be on your computer. Just don't open them (e.g. the Matrix). Just open chart windows and you'll be fine. I don't believe TS will allow you to use data from a third party, unlike Amibroker which requires data from a third party. TS has its own data feed (which is a very good thing, IMHO---I've had nothing but problems trying to interface charting and data with Ami, Neo, and other charting packages). Much better to have the two "joined at the hip" so to speak (I'll bet that's a phrase you don't have in India). Not exactly sure what help you need. Could you be more specific? Taz

sdoma, next time you see this could you take a snapshot and post the chart? Thanks.

Bearbull, thanks for the support. Fascinating that Seb Man said that he would be posting live trades and then didn't follow through. If you watch/listen to SM's videos, he does sometimes try to predict where future prices will go, and he's quite often wrong. My first clue, however, that there was a potential problem with VSA came from none other than Todd Krueger and Tom Williams, who made the mistake of trying to predict several markets during a question and answer session that TG recorded. After their seminar, I went back to those charts in the succeeding days and found that their predictive powers were, well, zero. I'm sure they do better than that on average, but for the few examples that they foolishly let slip, they completely blew it. I say "foolishly" because they were in the business of selling Tradeguider and raking in as many new customers as they could, so it would be foolish for them to put themselves at risk of looking like idiots in the event that any potential customer did what I did and followed up on their predictions. Now, here's my problem---Todd and Tom were/are probably the world's foremost VSA interpreters (SebMan too I guess), and if THEY aren't able to do a credible job of making VSA work at the hard right edge, then maybe it really IS just an interesting intellectual theory, and not much more.

sdoma, in your example, above, you're using VSA principles to predict that the market will go down and it's time to go short. Now, just do it in real time with a real market. We've had this discussion about prediction a long time ago on the VSAI thread. If you're right some percentage of the time, that's prediction, just on a statistical basis. If VSA (or any other method) can't give you an edge to predict where the market is going, then it has no value. OK, so nothing can predict 100% of the time, but no trader would expect that it could, at least not one that's been in the game for a while. In order to determine whether or not VSA is a crock, all we need to do is to see whether it can accurately predict the direction of the market some percentage of the time that makes it useful. Way back somewhere on the VSA I thread, somebody posted a challenge to VSA proponents, and I vaguely recall that I seconded that posters comments, saying essentially what I just said here---show us that it works in real time. Not a single person stepped up to the plate, and I remember we had lots of posters saying that such a test was invalid, unnecessary, they didn't have the time, etc. etc. etc.--a veritable crockpot of excuses. The argument about "prediction holding you back" is a red herring. Either VSA is useful at the hard right edge, or it is not. Nobody expects 100% accuracy, or they shouldn't. But if VSA is no better than flipping a coin (up for heads, down for tails) then VSA isn't valuable to the trader except as an intellectual theory. My challenge was meant to clear away the cobwebs of theory and put VSA to the test. Apparently, nobody thinks it will work because I've gotten nothing but arguments about why such a test isn't necessary, or valid or whatever.

Why do I think that someone should prove it to me (and to everyone else while they're at it)? Please read this carefully: Because the title of this thread is: VSA, crock or not? THAT's why someone should prove it (or disprove it)---that's the discussion we're having on this thread, started by Mr. Ed, who asked a valid question---does VSA work? Well, if you want to talk about No Demand bars or Climactic Action, or the End of a Rising Market, then please go back to the VSAII thread. THIS thread is devoted to a discussion of whether VSA works. All I'm saying is, talk is cheap. To really answer this question, which is, after all, the purpose of this thread, then the only proper way to do that is to put it into action and see whether VSA can predict moves.

Blu-Ray, just curious. Was there any sound with that video? It was clear without, but I was just wondering, because I got an error message when it opened, saying something about a glitch in the download. Thanks again---I didn't know that two hash marks works the same as the french braces....learn somethin' every day!

Slinging insults in a public forum for traders? Talk about immature. I put forth a reasonable challenge, and this is the response I get? Calling me names is not going to prove anything (OK, it will prove one thing, but we won't go there). I think I can make the claim that the Traders Lab forum has had more posts on VSA than any other financial forum. Is that correct? At least it's true that there's been a long and detailed discussion of VSA. But, during this entire time, nobody that I'm aware of has had the courage to put it to the test. So, VSA supporters and believers, take the challenge!

Is VSA a crock? Well, there's only one way to test whether it is or not, and that is to hold a contest. Let the best VSA traders on this forum put their skills towards analyzing one market that we all watch. Let's say the ES, or the $SPX. In order that participants don't have to post during the trading day, the contest should be made on daily or weekly bars. As Todd Krueger used to say, VSA works better on longer term charts anyway, so this should be perfect. So, my dear VSA experts, where's the S&P going tomorrow? for the rest of the week? If you make a prediction, back it up with a chart, and show your work. Tell us what VSA pattern you see in your chart that tells you where the market is going. One thing I have noticed is that VSA proponents look like geniuses until you get them up to the hard right edge, then their predictive skills don't work so well. In fact, they don't seem to work worth a damn. So, skip the BS and put your money where your mouth is if you believe in VSA. I challenge you!!!!!!

Thanks, erie, some very good advice there. Taz

Hi erierambler, went back and re-read your idea. Hmmm, now that I think about it, there is a Geeksquad shop two towns away which has a very competent technician and several helpers. OK, so here's my reservation, more like a question: these Geeksquad folks don't know the first thing about online trading. Are there specific attributes that traders need in a computer, or will any computer do the job? I've heard that my Nvidia video cards are excellent for charting but would not work well for gaming, and vice versa---the video cards that gamers require would not be optimal for traders. Note that I've just heard this--not a clue whether it's true. Another potential problem is that small shops generally don't have the ability to answer phone calls if something goes wrong. That certainly would be the case with the Geeksquad shop up the road. You'd have to bring the computer box in, wait in line, describe your issue as best you can, and hope they can replicate the problem. With the computer I now have, I call them on the phone, they log into my computer via the internet, and almost without exception, they have me up and running again in a few minutes. That just isn't possible with local shops, unless you're extraordinarily lucky.

For the BB, it's easy enough to go into the code and "comment out" the midline {just put french braces around Plot 3}. I tried this same game with the MACD, but when I commented out the AVG line, it messed up the whole indicator. So, one alternative way to make the AVG line to be invisible is to simply make it the same color as the background chart. There's probably a more elegant way to do it within the easylanguage code, but I don't know how to do that.

Just called Xview in Austin, TX. Incredibly arrogant! They wouldn't even tell me the speed of the computer they wanted me to spend $8000 for. That arrogance has to come from somewhere, so I think they may be telling the truth when they say that they supply computers to big trading firms. They also highly recommended that I spend $500 for the privilege of buying a new computer every year for 25% of the original cost. In other words, they want me to pay them $500 so I can then pay them $2000 every year to get a new computer. Whew. I suppose that if you're really making big bucks in the market, then this sort of arrangement would (almost) make sense.

CW, This is going to sound dumb. How do you define a WRB? How wide does wide have to be to be a WRB compared to the bars around it? Double the average size? one and a half times? Three times? If you're basing your stop price on the appearance of a second WRB, it would be helpful (essential, I guess) to know when a second WRB has occurred. Thanks SO much for sharing your knowledge!!!!!

The gist of this post is that I'm looking for someone to help me re-code Tradestation indicators to make them more efficient. However, I don't even know if this is worth the time and effort. The idea for doing this began when I started a thread on the Tradestation forum which wound up turning into a discussion of the importance of re-coding TS indicators to make them more efficient. Here's the thread (you have to be a TS customer to get in, I think): https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=81245 Anyway, I was wondering if anyone who knows easylanguage and Tradestation knows: 1) whether this is possible? 2) how you'd know if your new code was more efficient? 3) whether it would be worth the time and effort? Here's a quote from the thread that gets to the heart of the matter: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- "First thing is make sure your code is running efficiently. Clean up the code, make it efficient. And either use STO or something similar. STO reduces the # of calcs by as much as 90%. I have one indicator that I only update once per second. Another thing I do is to consolidate indicators/paintbars/everything running realtime into one indicator. You have to look at it from the perspective of reducing the # of instructions being sent to the cpu. Every if statement matters. Further still, arrange your code so you don't keep repeating the same calc when nothing will change. For example, there is no need to keep repeating the lookback calcs over and over in stochastics. Do it once then modify the result if the current bar changes. It is worth noting also that many "stock" TS indicators are built for convenience, not speed. I don't use userfunctions in realtime indicators. And sure as heck would never use one of those multi-ouput 3-4 layer of userfunction things. Make your own to do only what you need. Look at the TS function highest. Dig through all the layers to get to the real meat of it. In comparison, all you actually need is 4-5 lines of code. " ------------------------------------------------------------------------ So, my dear Traders Labmates, does this make sense? And is there anybody out there in TL-land that can do this (for a fee, of course)?

My experience with computers is that they are not like washing machines--you plug them in and they work pretty much flawlessly for a few decades. I've heard of a friend or two who has had a trouble-free computer, but with !@#$% Microsoft always "upgrading" their platform with service packs, the probabilities something or somethings going wrong approaches 100%. As a result, I need a computer-maker whom I can call at least five days a week to help me solve this glitch or that. Most of my computers have had both hardware and software problems that I couldn't fix. Just for fun, here's a short list: 1) bad fan motors---squeak like hell 2) bad hard drives (multiple) 3) bad RAM sticks--very hard to diagnose (but easy to fix when you do) 4) conflicts between CPU speed and RAM---the ratio is set in the BIOS, and apparently this ratio is dependent (I couldn't believe this when I heard it) on the humidity where you live 5) conflicts between video drivers and Microsoft's latest "upgrade" 6) conflicts between the motherboard and network cards or peripherals. IRQ assignment can be probematic 7) USB ports not configured correctly---some ports work, others don't (somehow related to #6 I think) Well, there's a short list of stuff I can't solve on my own....and you think I should build my own computer? If you can work your way around the above problems, hats off to you, but I'd rather focus on trading and leave the computer construction to professionals. So, XView and Alienware were the two companies mentioned above. I've heard mixed reviews about Alienware. I'll give XView a call, but I'd appreciate any other suggestions if you've got 'em! Thanks!

Hi all, I have two computers built by tradingcomputers.com, and while the guys who built them are nice and all, I've had nothing but problems with their computers. I'm looking to have another computer built, but I want to find a better company. What I need is a company that knows what traders need (high on speed, low on graphics--no 3D games, quiet operation and good customer support). I know that there are a number of companies out there, but I can't find them. Would anybody care to give me a reference? Thanks, Taz

Here's another idea. Jack Broz is a bond trader. You might be able to get a free thirty days or so from him. Maybe only a week, I'm not sure, but he does have useful info. Also, Tim Morge has many useful articles on bond trading. A word of caution, however--Tim is a MASTER trader, a true original genius, so you want to understand that the stuff he presents in his free lectures is only a part of the strategy he's using. Still, it's the same deal--useful information for free. To get further info on Jack or Tim, put Google to work!

Wasn't profitable on 5' ES today. Isn't it pretty much axiomatic that simple MA strategies don't work?