wrbtrader

You've not mentioned any specifics of what type of patterns you're talking about when you said "most patterns have a 50 - 50 WL ratio". In addition, the few profitable traders out there know that you can be a "consistently profitable trader with a 50 - 50 WL ratio". You should do better research involving your winning trades being more profitable than your losing trades to understand. For example, 5 winners and 5 losers is a 50% win rate. Yet, if for example you average winner is 80 pips while your average loser is 30 pips...you will be consistently profitable trader even though your win rate is only 50%. Simply, why you only looking at win rates instead of incorporating better trade management of your winners and losers. Anyways, that wasn't your question. Regardless, patterns (e.g. double tops/bottoms) are not trade signals and maybe that's why you're having problems with them. In contrast, they should be used to alert you to look for a trade signal if/when such appears when the pattern appeared. Simply, they tell you a price action scenario has developed and its time to look for a trade signal (if it appears) to use as a timing signal into the pattern. Trade signals or timing signals are usually a few intervals in length whereas a pattern will involve much more than a few intervals or just a specific fixed price. My point, you need to find a few things that work together instead of concentrating on one thing. In addition, after you find those things that work well together...you still need to have a good trade management "after" entry and understand market context to adapt the open trade or trade method itself. Therefore, if you're only looking at patterns...it's a losing proposition as you noticed without a good timing signal, without good trade management, without market context and other things involved in what's called a trading plan. Therefore, that edge you're looking for will involve finding components in a trading plan that work well together. Merry Xmas and a Safe/Happy New Year

You specifically said elsewhere that "someone else developed the method and rented it to you for a fee". In contrast, you're now saying you developed the method. Live chat room + Real-Time Signals + Explanations - No Trades = Hypothetical or Simulator trading There's nothing wrong with hypothetical real-time trading or simulator real-time trading. The problem is that you continue posting hindsight information of supposedly "real money" trading under the facade of real-time signal calls. That's not cool. Why not just start a chat room without mentioning anything about your method. I'm willing to bet you'll make a lot more friends along with having an active chat room...accomplishing your goal of seeking NEW FRIENDS. :doh:

Hi, Is it possible for you to also show total percentage gain/loss and/or total dollar (points) gain/loss that have been accumulated to go along with the individual stock results. Info that's easily obtained from a spreadsheet or broker statement (real or simulator).

Hi, You should first try using that trading plan you've posted for a few weeks to a few months to determine if you can do all of the different types of analysis...efficiently and profitably. I counted about 25 different trade methods within your trading plan. Most traders can't manage using one trade method and yet you're attempting to use 25 different trade methods together as one trading plan. :crap: Therefore, I highly recommend you remove most of those indicators and price action methods and decide upon just 1 - 3 trade methods within your one trading plan. This will allow you to efficiently determine problematic areas within your trading plan resulting in you being able to adapt your trading plan to minimize drawdown periods when market conditions changes and to remain consistently profitable (if profitable) because the markets are constantly changing many times per year. It's that constant change why most traders have big drawdowns or consistent drawdowns because they failed to recognize different trading conditions or not willing to stay on the sidelines until favorable trading conditions return that would allow them to exploit whatever trade method they're using. Simply, with 25 different trade methods within your trading plan, when something goes wrong (it will go wrong), you will be constantly running around in circles chasing your butt trying to find the problem if you're not profitable...you're trading plan will not work via its current design. Why? There's too much to do (analysis). Most of that information your brain will attempt to sort through and piece together will result in you not having the ability to follow that trading plan you posted. Thus, you will either conclude you didn't have the discipline to follow your trading plan (blaming yourself) or conclude you don't know what's wrong with the trading plan because you're using about 25 different trade methods as one trading plan. Once again, I highly recommend you only use 1 - 3 trade methods from your Pre-Trade and Main Analysis list and then slowly build up to all those other methods assuming you're still profitable. Yet, don't continue adding more trade approaches if you can't be profitable with what you already had in prior. I'm now very curious to see what your charts look like on your monitors as if someone was standing behind you and taking a picture of your monitors (plural) instead of showing one chart that's been maximized for forum discussion. Thus, I would be more surprised if you have less than 3 monitors in your attempt to manage 25 different trade methods as one trading plan. Start small, master it and then build up.

Hi Steve, I thought that was the purpose for this thread...Do or Die is giving real-time trade signals on the research and data he's collected so far. Simply, you guys need to allow the thread to continue and develop and stop debating with the results so far that have overall been profitable. Thus, wait until the thread has concluded and then cast your stones because debating with someone that has shown real-time profitable results so far doesn't make any sense to me unless the purpose is to try to discourage or derail the thread. Hi Adrian, I don't know what your experience is with divergence trading but let me enlighten you with some facts. You can get divergence signals as range price action, counter-trend price action or as trend continuation price action. Most traders are brainwash into looking for or believing the only types of divergence are the counter-trend price action. There are countless types of divergence methods based upon indicators or based upon price action only (no indicators). I personally know traders that are retail and institutional using divergence signals profitably. Yet, like the few profitable traders out there, they have a good trading plan and divergence signals is just one chapter in their trading book amongst other chapters like risk management, trade management, position size management, proper capitalization, good research tools et cetera. My point is that you've only mentioned divergence signals as counter-trend signals...that's evidence to me that you've had a limited exposure to divergence signals. Thus, you guys really need to think outside the box or at least realize that your experience level is still developing and that you do not know everything. Simply, you don't know everything concerning what profitable traders are doing and you should show some humility when someone starts a thread that post real-time trade signals that have overall been profitable so far. In my +20 years of trading, if there's one thing I've learn is to never debate with a profitable trader real-money or simulator about his/her trade method. Instead, I've learned to ask questions about what he/she is doing so that I can better myself as a trader.

They have a free trial, why not use the free trial for your own experience instead of asking others. :doh:

A few years ago Tradestation had a forum and there were threads at the Tradestation forum for "automation options trading". You should start there to find other easylanguage users that are using automation for options trading. Community | TradeStation

Do Or Die, It's very easy to stop the arguing or debates (depending upon how it's looked at) via asking the forum manager to change your thread titled to the following... RSI Divergence Trading Strategy (Live Calls Only) or RSI Divergence Trading Strategy (Real-Time Trades Only) I say that because when I read the titled and then I see the discussion...it's a little confusing because your first message post seems as if you're the one making live calls and that there's "no requirement" for others to make live calls. Edit - I enjoy reading threads with live calls (real-time trades or real-time price action discusions)...it's just as useful or arguably more useful than hindsight analysis. Out of curiosity, how do you select which stocks to monitor for RSI Divergence trade signals. Meaning, do you follow a specific type of stock and only watch those stocks for RSI divergence setups. ???

Yes, technical analysis (TA) is still valid within the context of those market events that you've been observing.

Hi, I don't know who told you about the "objective" of technical methods...that is not the purpose or objective of technical methods. Thus, TA was not designed to replace, remove the understanding of markets or price action. In contrast, it was designed to "aid with the timing of entry or exit" into that understanding of markets or price action. Regardless, if you're consistently profitable without knowing a darn thing about the price action you're trading or the markets in general...congrats...you'll be the first one I've met online as such. As for emotions, if you seek to remove them, I would suggest you try automation trading.

Proper identification of Japanese Candlestick patterns is important. Simply, there's a difference between a Bullish Harami and a Bullish Harami Cross. Thus, your chart represent a Harami Cross. Also, Bullish Haramis and Bullish Harami Crosses can occur in uptrends. There are also Bearish Harami Cross Continuation that occur via market context in which they look like a Bullish Harami Cross without market context.

# 6 - very critical for a futures and forex trader because key market events will more often than not cause swing points, reaction points, strong continuation or trend price actions. Therefore, key market events help gives some of that critical market context that's needed prior to the appearance of any trade signal. # 7 - only use a demo/simulator to learn the broker trade execution platform. Therefore, if someone is still designing a trade method, do that in backtesting and not while using a demo/simulator. In contrast, when traversing from demo/simulator to real money trading, only do such via small position size.

What do you think you're doing wrong that has a big impact on your trading results and your ability to support your family that has nothing to trade method. ? For example, did you save up a year or two worth of of income from your other job prior to trying to do trading full time to help remove a lot of the financial pressure to support your family when you tried to become a full time trader. Another example, you trading at home or in an environment that supports your trading instead of sabotaging your trading. Explain how you tried to transition from part-time to full-time. Did you take a leave of absence from your other job, did you trade full time on your vacation or days off from your job to determine if you're suitable for trading while still employed at your other job. My point with the above questions, there's more to profitable trading than a trade method and arguably those other things are more important than a trade method after taking a closer look of the individual situations of most traders. Yeah, traders that are single have different problems than traders that have a family. I've been doing the family thing as a fulltime trader for about 10 years now. It ain't easy and the odds are high that if you're doing poorly...it's not trade method related although you may only be willing to tackle your problems through your trade method.

Hi, I give hypothetical and real examples of market context (within context) in a prior Japanese Candlestick discussion called "Do Candlesticks Work" @ http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/7900-do-candlesticks-work.html Specifically, read very carefully my replies to the TL member guruji (a candlestick pattern programmer) because the replies will clearly define market context. Yeah, he too did not understand market context nor knew about its importance. Further, in that thread, I use the phrase "within context" and it's the same as the phrase "market context". Just remember this after you read the above thread, Japanese Candlestick Analysis was designed for use "within context" of having a strong understanding of the market environment prior to the appearance of any candlestick pattern. Unfortunately, traders have tried to simplify it's use via using it "without" market context because the traders (programmers, coders, backtesters) can not or do not know how to code market context let alone spend the time to understand market context.

Your chart represent candlestick "lines" and not candlestick "patterns". That's why there's no edge due to the lack of market context. Simply, a trader that's profitable via candlestick "patterns" are using market context. Thus, if someone says there's no edge and they only show candlestick "lines"...that's a big problem they have and have yet to realize. Also, there are published academic works that show "historical results" and/or "backtest results" showing candlestick patterns "do not work" or showing candlestick patterns "do work". I guess you can use your bias and decide which one has merits to you. Yet, regardless to which one you choose sides with...just remember those that did the publication (academic review) did so via their own trade management rules after entry that usually doesn't represent what a profitable trade would use as trade management. Moral of the story, don't bother use nor test candlestick "patterns" if you're not willing to do it the way profitable traders are using them...via market context...think outside the box.

These hypothetical trades via real-time data or real money trades? If real money trades, can you show a broker statement for today's trades that correlate with today's hindsight images you're going to post? I asked the above questions only because you have been banned from other forums (e.g. Elitetrader.com) or had your thread closed by the forum management (not by a moderator) after they discover something they didn't like. Simply, be careful, many ET members are also Traderslaboratory members and they remember what you did at ET. By the way, you did finally answer the questions over at ET (the questions were asked about a dozen times and ignored for a extended length of time) that these were hypothetical trades via real-time data and the Tradestation reports were of hypothetical trades. You also later admitted that you were having "confidence problems" in trading the proprietary system with real money because you didn't believe it could be that "precise". The point I'm making is that your prior posting history elsewhere do have impact on your character elsewhere. Simply, I have not mention some of the "baiting tactics" from the other forum that landed you into trouble there.

Hi, First of all, I doubt you've learned all the lessons because the markets are always changing. Thus, with each change, there's always and will always be something new to learn that will require you to adapt to stay profitable or become profitable. Secondly, you should stop trading via whatever method you're using if you believe you don't have an edge or you lack confidence in the method. Also, you've mentioned Al Brooks method as being similar to your method...that implies you're a discretionary trader (not using an automated system). Thus, its very common for discretionary traders failures is due to themselves and not the method especially after three years going at it. What should you be focusing on and trying to improve to gain that edge? Start a trade journal here at Traderslaboratory that contains charts, good trades, problematic trades, your thought process for the trades along with monitor screen images of exactly how your charts/broker platform are setup on your monitors. Also, discuss your trading environment at home or at wherever you're trading. Explain everything and show visual representation of as much as possible. This will allow you and others to determine if the problem is YOU (most likely the case) or your method along with giving you some good solutions as each trading day goes by.

You're a profitable trader, you're reaching your profit targets but you're using "hindsight analysis" to say you're exiting trades too early only because they continue moving further after you've exited. I call that being greedy. My point is you're worrying too much. Thus, you should only be concerned if you're consistently exiting trades before they reach their profit targets. That's the only time you should be worried that you're missing larger moves if/when those larger moves had reached your profit target involves your profit targets. Yet, if you're not profitable or the dollar amount of your winners are at a ratio too close to the dollar amount of your losers...yeah...that's when you should re-design your exit strategy.

First, your reference of that highlight sideway price action on your chart is called a trading range. Secondly, you need to re-study Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) within accumulation (buying) / distribution (selling) via whatever resource you've been using if it contains the information. Simply, the highlighted area (trading range) on your chart does not represent an overall theme of accumulation. In contrast, the overall theme in that highlighted area is distribution. Yet, there are small areas in that highlighted area of distribution that represents accumulation (e.g. mid May and mid June). Therefore, I highly recommend you learn about accumulation/distribution outside of VSA via Wyckoff (supply/demand) or Wyckoff's Market Phases. You should also learn about support/resistance or supply/demand within trading ranges. Next, after you've developed a strong understanding of Wyckoff accumulation/distribution, support/resistance, supply/demand you can then return to using VSA and merge that knowledge with your VSA. Simply, get your evidence or knowledge about accumulation/distribution from outside resources if your current VSA resource lacks the information. By the way, here at Traderslaboratory there are excellent old discussions about Wyckoff via supply/demand. P.S. I don't use VSA. Instead, I've been told by several VSA users that Wyckoff's Market Phases has given them a stronger understanding of VSA and improved their trading of VSA after they've been having problems being profitable via VSA. You have a lot of work to do and don't take another trade until you've mastered accumulation/distribution on its own two feet.

I strongly agree that if someone doesn't understand Japanese Candlestick patterns or any other pattern...don't bother trying to automate it as if the automation process will enable that understanding. Unfortunately, too many traders that automated or coded Japanese Candlestick patterns have a lack of understanding about the patterns but are great programmers. The reason why Japanese Candlestick patterns are poorly suited for automation is because it's very dependent upon "market context" and that market context can not be automated nor coded. Simply, at best, coded Japanese Candlestick patterns is only good for identification purposes and not good for trading purposes as an automation system. Further, I've never met a profitable Japanese Candlestick trader that's via automation but I have met profitable discretionary Japanese Candlestick traders that are greatly dependent upon "market context" as their primary trading tool while using Japanese Candlestick patterns as a confirmation method to that "market context".

Hi, I was not implying you should or were teaching a class. I was implying that when someone saids the method is simple...they are exclusively talking about the method from their perspective only and not from the perspective of those hearing you say the method is simple. This may explain why that trader you mention was asking "endless questions" about your simple method or trade decisions. Further, you're already reading while trading because you're visually reading the info you see on your charts and data screens...assuming you're not blind. Therefore, maybe you meant to say that you don't want to take your eyes off your charts and data stream to open up a different window (chat screen) to read commentary by others because its another "reading input" you don't want to add to the existing reading inputs you're already doing with your charts and data. With that said, SIUYA has it correct in that different parts of the brain react different when there are visual aids versus listening versus talking versus writing. This is a scientific fact and explains how we learn, interpret, analysis or whatever you want to call it. In fact, if you're a trader that visually looks at a chart, visually looks at data streaming across your monitors to make trade decisions...you are a trader that also needs the same visual information to learn. Therefore, its common sense that when someone ask you for more information about your trade method...you show them images (charts and data) that you used to make those trade decisions to go along with any written statements or audio statements...assuming you're not a blind trader that makes trade decisions exclusively via audio inputs. Another way to look at it, to explain your simple method without images is to imply you make trade decisions without "visually looking" at charts or data on your monitors. Therefore, if you decide again to explain your simple method or discuss key aspects of your trading day at a forum, chat room, email or whatever...throw in some images with your explanations to keep your simple method really simple. It's amazing how the brain interprets info while trading. :missy:

Lets put it this way, if you can't post images of exactly what you're looking at on your computer monitors regardless if its data/price screen, chart screen or any thing else you're using to make trade decisions... You will have a tough time explaining to someone or getting someone to understand your simple method. Thus, simplicity is a matter of perspective. What's simple to you may be complicated to someone else without visual references. Kind'uv like a college professor saying "its easy" while most in the class room are looking around at each other and saying "whatever". Other than that, chat rooms requires multi-tasking (trading and chatting)...it is a major issue for those involved. Thus, if its not meant to be a major production for you, I highly recommend you don't get involved with it as it seems to be what you're now realizing.

Yeah, without market context...don't bother learning, applying nor testing Japanese Candlestick patterns. It's a wast of time & energy unless your intentions is to show that Japanese Candlestick patterns don't work. In contrast, using them with market context, Japanese Candlestick patterns are profitable. Next, throw in some trade experience, money management, position size management and many other important variables of a trading plan...Japanese Candlestick patterns are an excellent trade method. However, I do not recommend trying to go the automated candlestick pattern trading route. They were not designed to be used as such and you'll limit your ability to properly learn how to trade them.

Hi, One key element of running a successful free chat room is to be a good moderator. In fact, the chat room will fail if you're a poor mderator but a great trader. Thus, when someone becomes a distraction or ask a ton of questions especially while you're in the middle of trades, interrupts others or seems argumentive, ask too many questions instead of waiting to ask them at a designated time period for Q & A... You got to give the person a warning to stop. If it continues...you remove the person from the room (skype chat). Thus, being a nice guy is one thing but when your Skype chat begins to become a distraction to your own trading (such can be very costly as in losses or missed trade opportunities)...you need to remove the distraction (moderate), close your Skype room or don't trade. That's the only 3 options available and it's obvious getting rid of the distraction is the best solution. Thus, you need to be a moderator just like one would be at a discussion forum like Traderslaboratory. As for your "simple method" that you seem to keep saying it cannot be explained in simple answers, you need to get a free blog...post as much details about your simple method with chart examples. Next, make sure all your Skype participants knows the link to your free blog. Those that forget and ask questions while you're in the middle of a trade...don't respond until you've completed your trade and then give them the link to your free blog. My point is that if you want a good quality Skype chat...you also need to be prepare to be a good moderator and good manager of your Skype chat besides being a trader. The other participants will be greatly appreciative except for those that are a distraction to you and to others. For example, you mention that one of the participants trades differently and that's fine. Yet, oddly you complain about that same member asking endless questions the entire trading day. Obviously having a member that trades differently is not fine...a member that's not like minded. Once again, I highly advise you properly screen those prior to allowing them to join your Skype chat to ensure they understand your simple method, rules of the chat and that they are using similar trading method prior to allowing them to enter the chat. Last of all, your brief explanation of your simple method is in my opinion a very poor explanation. Its too abstract and there are no chart examples that show trade examples to correlate with your abstract explanation. Thus, if you can't explain your simple method properly when at a discussion forum...you will not be able to do it in real-time during the trading day.

Hi, Now I'm a little confused. I thought the skype room you're trying to setup was for "like minded" traders. Thus, you only wanted those that had similar like trade methodologies. In other words, you were screening (filtering) so that only those that are "like minded" can join and not those that had different trade methodologies. My point, why not continue with the Skype audio but with like minded traders especially considering you realize such is the direction you should have taken in the beginning? Thus, don't allow those to join that have different traded methodologies. Simply, you should explain your simple methodology here in your thread and then make it clear you're only interested in new members that are like minded to help prevent the problem you're currently seeing. In fact, I've seen many chat rooms fail because they allowed "anyone" to join and allowed traders to join that weren't "like minded" or didn't have commonalities in their trade methods. Therefore, there are easy ways to prevent your Skype room from being a distraction and it begins with whom you choose to collaborate with.