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Lornz

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Everything posted by Lornz

  1. Trading is about finding value, but, for most traders/investors, the only hope is to find expected value. (30? I'm out)
  2. Most people can't trade, so they seek out message boards to receive adoration instead. It's the only "return" on investment they can achieve. I doubt there are many people trading like that in liquid markets today... People often forget the world of market-neutral strategies. Capital and infrastructure allows one to engage in arbitrage (both deterministic and statistical) that retailers can only dream of. Or, for discretionary traders, being able to keep a well-balanced global macro portfolio. Binary bets on the future price of a single instrument are usually only made by pikers like us.
  3. I would say that the same goes for you. Good luck bankrupting the CME! In fact, I feel that I am becoming less of a trader participating in this abomination. I'll leave you guys to it... Adieu!
  4. What are you talking about? The CME collects exchange fees for each trade, so they want as many to trade as much as possible. You are not trading against the CME. The CME Group's website has a wealth of knowledge on their website. They have also published a handbook that's available through all major bookstores. There are a lot of vendors that use their site for spreading nonsense, but there is a lot of technical information that is useful. I am often surprised by the fact that hardly anyone knows the mechanics of the market and instruments traded. That's the kind of stuff you should learn from books and courses. Figuring out how to make money is something each trader has to do on his/her own. It seems most retail traders don't even know what a forward curve is (e.g.), it's all about staring at a chart of a particular time series without any context at all. The market is a constant problem-solving exercise. The key to success is to think creatively and independently.
  5. I think he just means that your description reads like a TA 101 book.
  6. I agree! Whatever makes you money is the way to go. The problem is to find something that makes money over time. I find it funny that banks and funds have focus on rapid deployment, because the inefficiencies they are trying to exploit only lasts for days, weeks or months, but in the retail world everyone speaks of finding a system that has worked since the beginning of time. Small traders have certain advantages though, so it is possible to find a niche and do quite well. Although I have a certain framework in place, my approach is highly dynamic and ever-changing. And it is precisely that intuitive nimbleness that is virtually impossible to teach, which is why one has to learn by doing -- not buying courses on the internet.
  7. I just want to add that trading is a hard endeavor and very few will want to share their intimate knowledge with others. However, those who in fact does, rarely have anything worth sharing in the first place. By the way, what makes you think that your way of trading is the correct approach? I don't mean to sound offensive, but you don't strike me as highly successful. Are you making 7 figures (at least) a year? If not, how will you ever succeed at reaching financial independence, which I assume is the goal for all aspiring traders.
  8. Well, there are a lot of difference ways of trading, thus I will refrain from making blanket statements. However, if one is trading based on price action alone, which many are, one does not need anything else than price(s) and a brain suited for that approach. I don't trade that way anymore, but I did for several years. I've tried to teach others, but it seems that one either "gets it" or not. It's not a human right to be a successful trader and most will fail.
  9. First of all, it's very possible to figure it out on one's own. It's only random if one discards one's power to reason. You get an idea, you research it (possibly you need to find relevant literature for further edification) --- rinse & repeat. Secondly, they do teach trading at several universities. More and more have mock trading floors, complete with Bloomberg terminals and other resources. One can also take statistics courses at most colleges, and a lot offer courses on time series analysis (e.g.). It's possible to go through the various exams offered by FINRA, or the CFA. For a quantitative approach, one has the option of doing the CQF. Most retail traders equate trading to technical analysis, though. But, they even have a "school" for that: The Market Technicians Association's CMT program. Most exchanges offer training courses on all kinds of approaches. I started my education by taking a course on derivatives at my local stock exchange. I would say there is an abundance of education, but most people, in an incredibly naive manner, are looking for shortcuts... "I just want to make a hundred dollars a day...."
  10. It becomes very easy to see who's full of shit after one's traded for a few years. After a decade in this game, it is second nature. Some are very good at pretending, but small inconsistencies come to the surface soon enough.
  11. Not only do most courses fail to deliver any excess knowledge over reading a couple of books and/or searching the net, but most of the posters on message boards are "scammers" as well.
  12. I would turn it around and ask if there has ever been a "professional" trader that paid more than $10 000 for trading education.
  13. I did not claim one could achieve mastery in such a short period of time, but I made the claim that it is possible to reach a level of proficiency where one could live off it. The discussion is rather futile, at least with regard to most kinds of trading. Some have relevant degrees, others have not. Some are mathematically inclined, others detest math. Just like in sports, the sciences, music, etc it is possible to be naturally suited for trading. It is probably a prerequisite for achieving mastery. For some reason most claim that trading is exempt from needing talent to excel, but it's pretty evident that they are wrong. The lowest common denominator for trading is, of course, price action and/or scalping. It requires no formal education, but I would argue that it requires talent. It should not take more than a year to be able to make a living from it, if one is suited for that particular style of trading. If you haven't gotten any viable ideas after watching price action for about 6 months, you are probably better off spending time pursuing other styles of trading. That is not true; most never even become proficient. The few make a lot of money, while the rest are just losing money at various paces. You are right about constantly adapting/learning, of course. I was not the one downplaying the journey of others...
  14. I was stating that I have evidence to the contrary. If you fail to believe me, that's your problem -- not mine. I've been trading for about 9 years. I both position, swing and daytrade. I've been profitable since year one. I don't want to waste my time arguing. It is factually incorrect to state that it "will take years". If some can't comprehend that it's impossible to make such a claim, then I wish them all the best.
  15. No, mine are as irrelevant as yours. There is nothing stopping anyone on this board from approaching a reputable prop firm and receiving decent training. However, the simple fact is that if we are referring to price action trading, which is among the most popular approaches on online message boards, it all comes down to pattern recognition and intuition. It's more of an innate ability than something learned, but one, of course, needs a little time to cultivate one's predisposition. It is factually incorrect to state that it "will take years", and I felt compelled to clarify that.
  16. Cheers! (notenoughcharacterstopost)
  17. Only if one's a slow learner...
  18. Haha, that won't be necessary. Didn't you know that I'm omniscient? It's just a question of semantics, really: There has to be a buyer and seller for each transaction. No trades can take place unless there is an agreement on price. They agree on the price, but disagree on the (future) value of the instrument. The more transactions that occur at a given price, the more value the participants see at that level -- but their views are diametrically opposite. What do you say, ol' Macdougall? Does this fit with what you learned at the funny farm? I would like to add that I think it's a fallacy to think the market can be fully explained by the observer. All of these theories sounds nice, but they work best in hindsight. Markets are not normally distributed, so I would take it with a grain of salt. However, it is possible to trade profitably with Market Profile, just as it's possible to trade profitably with only a DOM or T&S. It's just a way of filtering information to make decisions, not a quantitatively provable trading strategy. One can go mad trying to explain everything, but most people have a hard time embracing the uncertainty needed to succeed as a discretionary trader. Personally, I think that the markets largely are undecipherable, except for certain instances. That is when I make move.
  19. I largely agree. My only grievance was that you said that it will take years, that's all. I do stand by my assertion that most capable traders figure it out rather quickly. This is only pertaining to PA trading and/or scalping, of course. Other, more complicated forms of trading, could take years of work. Have a nice evening.
  20. Yes, I was deliberately contradicting myself; it was a joke. I'm glad it went over your head. It is your ignorance that is showing. People read a couple of TA books and think they know anything about the trading world. What I have said is absolutely correct, but most does not have the opportunity to meet any true traders.
  21. Yes, but I was stating a fact -- which is very different. Please take note of the word "wrongly". You have no evidence of your statement, while mine is easily provable.
  22. Your personal experiences are irrelevant. There are examples of traders being consistently profitable after a few months. If you'd ever been in the vicinity of a reputable trading desk or prop firm, you would've gotten that confirmed. I am in no way claiming that they know "everything", but they manage to make enough money to avoid keeping a job on the side. The OP had a already been at it for 6 months, so I don't think it would be outrageous for him to be close to becoming profitable by now. I find it more outrageous that someone would emphatically claim that it will take years. There's no reason to assume that. In fact, I would rather claim (based on anecdotal evidence) that most traders, whom are actually suited for this profession, become profitable within a year. But that's the truth no one wants to hear, I guess... Your last sentence is dead on, of course.
  23. I find it annoying when people wrongly speak in absolutes. It is not factually correct to claim that it "will take years", thus I find it to be nonsense. Most will not make it even if they spend 20 years, while others will pick it up in a couple of months.
  24. That's nonsense. Most traders fail, but it does not necessarily take years to become a profitable trader.
  25. That is wrong. There is an agreement on price, but a disagreement on value.
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