mslk

yes thanks for the note, i need an excel sheet to figure all of this out before executing a trade! -mslk

there is a huge industry of people selling newsletters, investment advice, stock picks. some of their picks are good and some are bad. you can't generalize and say if someone has a winning strategy they wouldn't sell it. if that was the case you wouldn't have hedge funds or trading firms. but back to this particular newsletter, the graph shows all of their picks for the last year - now assuming this data is correct wouldn't my original simple strategy of work? thanks -mslk

hi - i don't have the actual data, i just have the chart i posted. but looking at the chart, if you take the 27 losers and cancel out the first 27 winners (not exact but close enough for discussion), that leaves 28 big winners right? - mslk

well the whole point is to let them do the research, and to just follow their recs. based on the chart, after the losers cancel out some of the winners they are way way ahead. you don't think thats a feasible strategy, if they have a good, verifiable track-record? - mslk

update exelon (EXC) - in april i sold june $41 puts for $0.7 and they expired worthless last week - booked a 8% gain on the $8.2 margin second trade exelon (EXC) - sell, to open, exelon (EXC) august $41 puts for at least $0.9, stock is at $42 - if options expire worthless, i get 11% return on my 20% margin requirement of $8.2 for 2 months work - if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $41, and taking into account the $0.9 premium, i'm buying the stock at 4.5% discount - EXC pays a 5.1% dividend and is one of the best utility\energy stocks on the market. if i am put the stock i will sell covered calls to improve the returns -mslk

ok now that i have your attention ... before i start i am not endorsing this newsletter, don't work for them, i won't even tell you who it is! but look at this graph of their performance ... couldn't someone do something as simple as invest $500 in each of their picks and completely crush the market? thanks -mslk

thanks for this nugget suiya! makes complete sense and i will start doing this :thumbs up: -mslk

optiontimer\siuya - thanks for the feedback, yes i haven't discussed the risk of this trade, or more importantly i haven't defined the exit. the risk mitigation i've taken is based on fundamentals of the company. essentially, i only sell these options for companies i *would* buy and i am long-term bullish on. if i do get put the shares i will start to sell covered calls on the shares to generate more income, and i also get to collect the dividends. so you won't see me doing this for linkedin or salesform.com and even though the mathematical exposure is $50, the *probably* exposure is not as ABT is not going to $0 anytime soon. but you've given me some good things to think about with regards to the exit. maybe i need to set a target where i buy back the puts or buy a put somewhere below $50? -mslk

i'm newbie when it comes to active\day\swing\trend-trading but i've been trading options (primarily for income) for a little bit. i'm starting this thread to share some of my option trades and to record how i'm doing on them. hopefully this will help me cover the cost of learning how to day-trade! :haha: most of my trades are *selling* put options on big safe companies with dividends, with the intent the option expires worthless and i collect the premium. if it doesn't expire then i get to buy the stock at a discount. Disclaimer: i am not an investment professional and this is NOT investment advice! first trade abbott labs (ABT) - sell, to open, abbott labs (ABT) august $50 puts for at least $0.9. - if options expire worthless, i get 9% return on my 20% margin requirement for 2 months work - if it i'm obligated to buy the stock at $50, and taking into account the $0.9 premium, i'm buying the stock at 4.7% discount - ABT pays a 3.7% dividend, has a strong balance sheet, and is a large diversified health care company just ready for the onslaught of baby-boomers -mslk

i second that blowfish, are you referring to this thread? Why the S&P E-Mini Stinks thanks - mslk

haha the thread would be unreadable then :haha: interesting idea ... probably a macho guy thing, jumping in with the confidence he'll figure it out. stupid but its engrained in the male psyche! here is the thread steve is referring too: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/4333-ideas-struggling-traders.html thanks steve for the great thread ... now i need to spend the rest of the day reading it ... - mslk

so this is almost like how an athlete 'do reps' right? can i ask why don't you automate it? is it because you are not comfortable with a computer executing the trade or is it something else? thats interesting, but i think for me its rather *indecision* because of lack of experience\knowledge. a deer-in-headlights situation. thanks - mslk

as a newbie just starting out in day\active trading, i found this and thought it was pretty handy to print out and stick on my wall. #1: Trading without education or training. - seems obvious but trying to trade without the proper knowledge is like going to a gun-fight with a knife (pardon the cliche) #2: Allowing emotions to influence your trading decisions. - that's why you need an automated system (i think?) #3: Failing to realize that trading has little to do with luck. - but i rather be lucky than good! just kidding ... #4: Thinking that losing is bad when trading. - riding losers down ... mistake of every inexperienced trader #5: Neglecting to recognize that learning to trade is an unending process. - darn i was hoping to find a system and set it on auto-pilot! -mslk

i'm not a full-time trader yet but just like you, i'm working towards it. i'm still in the exploratory phase, losing some money, trying to find a systems that works these are two good books i am currently reading for systems design and testing, particularly Stridsman: 1. Trading Systems that Work : Building and Evaluating Effective Trading Systems - Thomas Stridsman 2. Design, Testing and Optimization of Trading Systems - Robert Pardo and i've just begun to search for methods to test the stability of my results, here are my thoughts on that: 1. extensively use the Out-of-Sample approach and "test 'til he drops" 2. modeling using MonteCarlo modeling 3. use the MSA function from adaptrade that also includes MonteCarlo simulation 4. use ProSizer with the same MC simulation capabilities by unicorn 5. model my portfolio using the BootStrap method, although I haven't found any software that utilizes this method. 6. use the time series simulations such as DataScrumbling described by Tushar S. Chande, PhD in his book "Beyond Technical Analysis: How to Develop and Implement a Winning Trading System" as far as the actual trading strategy, i'm just doing simple MA crossovers, i figured it was important to have a good system that was testable setup before i start plugging in more strategies. -mslk

i looked into these services, if you're a news oriented trader, trade the news is very good. but the process to trial is ridiculous with the linkedin requirement and all. ransquawk offers an easy to setup trial - free 2 min delayed service to all their feeds. and it costs about £250 a month for ransquawk if you go after the gold package which is everything. not sure on pricing for individual feeds. you also get access to a lot of fundamental research with ransquawk. -mslk

Same here ... please continue posting to your log it is great being able to follow your setups -mslk

do you post those on TL? I would love to see these trades as I'm sure everyone else following these threads would too. thanks - mslk

well as a newbie trader myself, i'm looking for the 'most probable' market to make money in. if my daily target is $250, thats only 5 points x $50\point - easy right? well no, as the mini S&P only moves 20 points or so a day so I'm trying to capture 25% of the daily movement ... which has been tough! but the currency futures move much more and so it appears there is more opportunity to capture the equivalent points trading fx vs. emini. is this correct?

no it doesn't - everyone has their own approach - you cannot automatically assume he isn't a daytrader with 12 years experience simple because he doesn't agree with you on backtesting! anyhow - continue on phantom we are all enjoying your thread so far and want more -mslk

hey phantom, out of curiosity what platform are you using to trade currencies and commodities? i would like to start trading in the methods you are describing but the first major hurdle is always picking the right place to deposit my money. i only want to do it one time as it is such a pain-in-the-ass to change later. thanks - mslk

what are you talking about? are you being facetious or are you serious? does that include stuff you post? :rofl: -mslk

yes please continue posting, these threads are great - i love following stuff like this - just like the Reading Charts in Real Time thread -mslk

yes sorry that was a typo ... i meant VWAP - mslk

but if they don't trade the method, how do you know its a good method? theory is one thing but putting it to practice is totally another isn't it. is anyone here successfully trading using wyckoff? tia - mslk

who were you watching that got you so worked up!? - mslk