zosorock

Hi iwshares, Thanks for taking the time to post this. I have tried something very similar to it but I use the swing highs (for shorts) plus 10% of the range of the last 10 bars, in other words 0.1 * ATR(10) That has proved to be effective as it avoids most stop-hunting at these levels.

Cool, thanks! :thumbs up: I thought so. I have been forward and back testing the system for a month now and the results are pretty good if you exercise good risk management. I was wondering about these too. I noticed that if the price crosses the "trigger price" before hitting the "stop price" it is usually still a good entry as well, although normally not as good as a textbook signal (meaning there is a higher failure rate on these). It is a deviation from the system though so, as tempting as they might be, at least on this thread it may be better to stay with just the ones the match all the system's criteria for the sake of consistency.

Hi Optiontimer, You have done a great job of explaining Kroll's strategy. Thank you very much for all the work you put into your project. I have just now came across this thread and would like to request a quick confirmation to make sure I got it right. Do you see a sell signal for Oats on 12/28 with entry on the 29th? Thank you!

hey Turner, happy new year! I think it is great you are being honest (especially with yourself) and it is very nice of you that you are sharing the experience so others can learn from it. We are all learning from it, myself included. That being said, don't be too hard on yourself. Mistakes will happen, drawdowns will happen, it is all part of the game. Don't let your mistakes make you shy because whatever it is that you are doing is obviously working. Just stick to your rules and keep going, learning, improving, sharpening your skills. Learn what you need to learn and move on, because, as a lame lawyer once said "past performance is not indicative of future results." So live in the now, the only right price is the current price. Good luck! And keep the posts coming. Cheers!

hi Lucky, I would be interested in joining that online trading room. Can you PM me the information? Thank you!

Yes, well, I am always of the opinion that if you have nothing to add to the conversation you should keep your mouth shut And that's why we have two eyes, two ears but only one mouth :missy: I am enjoying reading of your successes and don't feel intimidated by the guys in here. Keep on sharing and we will yell if/when we see some traps you may be walking into. Cheers!

JTurner: I am too concerned about how you are handling your success. Three contracts are 2 more than I would get into with an account the size of yours for instance. It seems to me you are not 100% aware of how much you are risking by shorting 3 contracts. A 400-point drop in the Dow Jones could take away all the profit you had to date. And these happen way more often lately than they used to. I know, I have been caught in the wrong side more times than I like to admit (usually trying to fake out a rally or something). While I would not suggest you stop trading altogether, I would suggest you that you limit your exposure to say a maximum loss of $250 in any trade. It is better to lose 4 times $250 and then later make $1250 (ending up with a positive result of +$250) than to hold on to a loser that will take you down $8000 and months to make back. The secret is more on how you handle the ones that go against you than the ones that go in your favor. The ones who begin making money a bit and then go south are the worst! You will have to really force yourself out of these positions, no matter what. Like someone else said before in this thread, "not following your own rules is usually the kiss of death." Please don't add to the statistics. My suggestion to handling your emotions is to read Mark Douglas' "Trading in the Zone": Amazon.com: Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence, Discipline and a Winning Attitude (9780735201446): Mark Douglas: Books While he does like the sound of his own voice (as a reviewer points out), this book made me accept wins and loses equally and has taught me how to manage emotions to a point where today I can care less if I make or lose money, or if I am right or wrong about where the market is going. And since then my account has only gone up. I think that is priceless because it increased my quality of life as a trader, and that's way more important than just making money. I am positive that if you manage your risk aggressively and persevere you will succeed in your goal. Best of luck!