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iwshares

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Everything posted by iwshares

  1. iwshares
    I started off with the intention of only day trading EUR/USD. However after spending some time doing that I realised that it wasn't working so tried switching to daily chart based trading which is more profitable and better psychologically for me. However as a result I found it very boring to just analyse one pair once a day so look at 8 pairs to keep mentally stimulated, placing trades that fulfil enough signals. The downside of this I discovered today when I managed to miss the massive moves in eur pairs because despite seeing the same move in different eur pairs, I didn't place even my "best option" trade, due to a lack of confluence in signals on individual charts. Still wondering if this was a wise move. Would the trades have been impluse trades? N.b. MMS despite not being able to afford silver trades I'm still analysing it daily...
  2. iwshares
    Not trying to promote another forum... But I found this great ATR indicator for MT4, tells you ATR over 14 days, hundred days and today HL. Finding it quite useful for my trading system ATR indicator for MT4 @ Forex Factory
  3. iwshares
    Exactly, had that very situation this weekend where I got a bit cocky and put a trade on friday afternoon ET - then realised once the market closed that I was selling at the bottom, rather than waiting for the pullback... What a relief when the market opened, though I still let it stop me out...
  4. iwshares

    Gft uk

    iwshares posted a topic in Forex

    Has anyone got any experience using GFT UK? There was a chart up recently showing 50% of Oanda traders make profit, followed by 32% of GFT. I'd use Oanda (am demoing an account at the moment) but being based in the UK withdrawals would cost me £10 minimum each time - which take massive chunks out of my profits. For UK clients GFT withdrawals are free. I've also had a demo account with GFT and their customer service has been great, has this been the experience of others?
  5. iwshares
    Their implementation has New York Charts (which some people claim to better, others don't). As I'm not an experienced MT4 user I don't know how common this is. All in all I think MT4 is great so it's great Oanda have support for it.
  6. iwshares
    The inside day of 2/5/11 coupled with the down trend started 28/4/11 seemed to create the energy for the big move down yesterday. I'd call today a pullback in the downtrend. I haven't been trading it, but I'd move my position to a hold and be ready to take profits if I'd been riding the silver train on the way up. 42.2273 was an important S/R level on the way up so the breach yesterday and the lower level now would support a reversal of the trend. Mind you taking the whole uptrend into account we're only testing the 61.8 fib level so it may yet pullback.
  7. iwshares
    My take on it is the death of one terrorist doesn't change the overall economic picture, nor does it make the world a massively safer (and more prosperous) place - or the opposite. In particular reference to the EUR/USD daily charts, it still seems likely to trend up, with pretty much the same size channel in the pullback as the pullback last 21-25 april '11. On the other hand the GBP/USD, which has normally is quite similar to the EUR/USD has taken a massive dive today, breaking through a significant S/R level of 1.64984. I wouldn't want to speculate what will happen with that pair. USD/CHF has hit a temporary support around 0.85256 though I don't think that is likely to retrace back up.
  8. iwshares
    From looking at the charts I completely agree (which took out a couple of my stops but hey, that's what you get for having a position on EUR/USD and GBP/USD...)
  9. iwshares
    Very interesting, the news is reporting that the XAG/USD has dropped in response to the news about bin laden, yet from how I'm reading the charts the it's actually risen since the announcement. Is this an example of newsreaders putting 1 and 1 together and getting 3, not actually analyzing how a market has been behaving and what it means?
  10. iwshares
    Was only managing my open trades yesterday so had a few days away from silver. on 27/4/11 it punched back through 47.8585 which seems a strong resistance level before the price peaked at 49.8174 and crashed. On 28/4/11 price dipped back below this but closed pretty close to the previous days close, though bearish. There was quite strong volume with these moves which is positive for the bulls - though the cynic may argue this was because every magazine show is now talking about silver as the next big thing... I guess it's all down to whether price can keep above the 47.8585 support and breach the 49.8174 resistance. Quite an interesting one this is turning out to be
  11. iwshares

    Usd/cad

    iwshares replied to iwshares's topic in Forex

    Hi Tams here's my chart. If you want me to add any more notes etc let me know
  12. iwshares

    Usd/cad

    iwshares posted a topic in Forex

    Hi guys. I've been doing a lot of analysis recently and have some thoughts about the USD/CAD I'd like to share. We've been in a down trend for some time. 18-28/3/11 a resistance of 0.98508 was tested but not breached. Next resistance at 0.96709 was tested with a pin reversal/blowout on 18/4/11 with the next daily bar high at the resistance level. Is 21/4/11 low, a pin bar, indicating a reversal to possibly 0.96709, or just a temporary pull back? The lower lows and lower highs of the last few days would suggest we are still in a down trend. With my 10:1 margin I would sell 1 lot at 0.95454 (i.e. once we breach the lowest low of recent times) with a stop loss at 0.9818, profit at 0.8361. Only problem is that is below the lowest low ever. Instead sell 2 lots at 0.95454, stop loss at 0.9636 which is a still a recent support and profit at 0.8908 which is more realistic but still an all time low. What do you think? Can USD/CAD break that 5 year low?
  13. iwshares
    Today's silver thoughts: The weekly pivot is acting as a resistance since the break below of 25/4/11. Price opened higher at 45.99541 but has dropped below to 45.4049. If price can go above the high of 49.78928 then the drop is just a pullback/fakey setup. Otherwise price (in the short term) is probably reversing to the S/R pullback level of 42.9237. Sell at the S/R level of 44.2185 with a stop of 44.6206 (the support line of the last two days candles) and a profit target of 42.9237.
  14. iwshares
    Just wondering what your TP rules are e.g. move up when 20% hit and trail it up etc?
  15. iwshares
    Based on fib levels drawn on the downtrend of 16/7/8 - 25/1/9: Will cable rise from 1.6455 up to the last significant high of 1.7033, stop at the 50 fib of 1.6814, drop back towards the 61.8 fib level of 1.6048, or drop to 1.5711, the middle of the double top near the last sig high and a level tested between 25/7/10 and 16/1/11?
  16. iwshares
    I've been at silver trying to work out what position to place. I've plotted fib levels based on the 24/8/10 - 3/1/11 uptrend which ended on 31.024. These suggest price then pulled back to almost the 62.8 fib level of 25.792 before retracing back up through the 100 fib level and with a small pullback on 14/3/11 pushed through the 161.8 fib level on 5/4/11 with a small pull back on 11/4/11. Would other people agree with me that if it drops below the 39.191 level, or even better the 38.043 resistance level it will likely return to the 25.792 - 31.024 range of late 2010? Or would other people start shorting it before that e.g. around 42, the low of 18/4/11? Looking at the long side would hitting the 261.8 fib level of 52.950 seem possible and yesterday was just a pull back along the way? Yesterdays high placed us about 3/4 of the way there. Edit - interestingly changing the fib levels to run from 24/8/19 - 9/11/10 would indicate the 261.8 level of 47.996 was pretty much hit before the market yesterday tested the limit but couldn't propel the sustain the price above it. In which case the 161.8 level of is an even better resistance/support level. With this degree of chart fitting I could almost call the top...
  17. iwshares
    Not sure if this is the right thread but thought I'd share my thoughts on EUR/USD longer term positions based on daily charts. The EUR/USD continues to rise.It is now the highest it's been since 12/1/10. Calculating fib levels based on the uptrend of 9/1/11 - 2/2/11 would indicate after that date price rose dropped to approx 61.8 fib level of 1.3470, back up to the fib 100 level of 1.3859. It then traded up to the last significant high level of 1.4287 (4/11/10, which was also a significant support level when the high of 3/12/9 dropped away). Price broke through and stalled at the 161.8 fib level resistance level of 1.4497 for a few days until after a pull back to 1.4287 it bounced up to the 1.4648 level it's now testing. The 1.4497 resistance level has now become the new support. Therefore if the price can firmly breakout above the 1.4648 level - e.g. close for 2 days above this level, higher highs and higher lows etc - then going long would make sense. Profit target around 1.5144 (the significant high of 2/12/9). A bolder profit target could be the 261.8 fib level of 1.5493 that price crossed several times between 13/3/8 and 7/12/8 - though it seems less likely to push that far. Stop loss around 1.4480 - a resistance level tested between 8/4/11 - 15/4/11 and the support tested on 25/4/11 that's flipped to a support level. All this could be affected by Ben Bernake tomorrow so I might do an update once I've digested it. Please note the value are not absolutely pip accurate but I think paint a good picture, Does this analysis seem correct to other people? I'm still very new to trading so have stopped putting trades on to plan more in longer time frames.
  18. iwshares
    Thanks guys, the first post was partially in jest but really happy for the constructive input. SIUYA I see what you mean about the 2:1 limit/stop. I've been thinking I need to reduce my stake anyway to have more pips both ways for the 1% of capital I risk each trade. I'll reduce my stake and try 3:1 so I can get it wrong 3 times for each trade I get right. Hope you have a great Easter and good trading next week!
  19. iwshares
    How are you finding Oanda as a broker? Someone recommended them to me because you can see all the open positions on their exchange. I also like the tightness of the spreads. Do Oanda ever publish them like open interest figures for commodities?
  20. iwshares
    I was really glad I went to the Expo. I learned so much from the different presentations and talking to the other delegates. It was great TL had a stall there, it was the first place I went went to once the exhibition hall opened and really enjoyed talking through various ideas with you. Looking forward to the next one
  21. iwshares
    Hi guys, I am demo trading forex (eur/usd exclusively at the moment) and am looking for the right broker and trading platform. At the moment I am using the web clients and have tried a few different demos. I really like the Tradestation matrix (it seems to make more sense for me than chart based trades), though haven't used it myself. However one guy I spoke to briefly said the last time he tried to use it for forex his team found it not very good, though admitted that was several years ago and didn't elaborate as to the faults, maybe some guys here know what they were. My main questions would be: a) How is Tradestation for trading forex these days? b) How are they as a broker? Is it worth paying for another broker? I'm based in the UK so am I right in saying there would be conversion costs converting my GBP to USD for trading with them? I've emailed support and not got a response which doesn't bode well... Hope this is the right section and hasn't been covered elsewhere in the forums. Thanks iwshares
  22. iwshares
    At the moment my trading system allows for a 2:1 profit loss ratio e.g. 16 pip limit, 8 pip loss. So far using analysis to pick the direction of the trade I've had a 13:10 win:loss ratio. This morning was 11:9 e.g. almost 50/50. This made me think: Why not drop the charts and pick up a coin to decide whether to buy or sell? It has no memory of what side it landed on so would seem to be as a good an analyst as me at the moment (lets ignore the rare chance of it landing on the side)... Any thoughts guys?
  23. iwshares
    Thanks for the advice $5DAW. Don't worry I haven't just read a website and think I'll become a Forex millionaire overnight - I'm still studying different markets to work out which one I want to trade in. My comment on slippage in relation to Forex meant is that the brokerage and stamp duty costs related to equities trading seem to reduce profits more than the bid-ask spread of Forex. Is this right? I've yet to examine futures and options and their trading costs. As for time period would I be right in saying that as long as I know how a market normally behaves I could dip in and out of trading a short time period e.g. 4 hour charts. I've read that I need to choose between position and swing trading as part of developing a trading strategy and am presuming I could be a part time swing trader? Does that apply to every market?
  24. iwshares
    Hi all I've been following economics and investing in mutual funds for the last two years. Since Jan 2011 I've been a bit more hands on. I used fundamental analysis to set up a (hopefully) High Yield Portfolio of UK equities. This has led me down the path to Technical Analysis and trading. I am very interested in trading Forex as I like the way slippage is handled. However as I am still very much in the learning stage I am doing a lot of reading of books, journals and e-information. I don't yet know exactly what I will trade and over what time period. I'm currently hunting for the right backtesting software for me to start testing trading systems while also doing some paper trading and chart analysis. If anyone can recommend an OSX based backtesting programme I would be delighted to know as I'd rather not use bootcamp etc. When not researching trading I run my own business, often outside, so I'm not always staring at a screen!
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