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iwshares
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Everything posted by iwshares
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11/20 EUR/USD Long @ 1.37869 TP1 filled quickly, now testing the high shown on the chart
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Update: TP2 and TP3 filled. Attached is chart of the completed trade and a zoomed out view to another potential TP3 point higher that I rejected for being too greedy target. As it happens price is pulling back but I thought I'd mention it to get other peoples input. While it's obviously each traders personal opinion, is 60 pips on a 5m chart eur chart a sensible target? Having thought about it perhaps the reason I was hesistant is this trading system only allows stop to BE when TP2 is hit, when price action would have indicated adjusting stop to below TP2 for last 1/3 i.e. an unwillingness to give up unbanked P&L. Food for thought, the reason I'm doing the exercise
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10/20 Mechanical Exercise Trades: Long @ 1.37243 TP1 then price pulled back halfway between entry and SL, chopped around then made a fast move up to above TP1 again, before pulling back, using TP1 as support.
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So I've made some discretionary trades while doing my mechanical trading exercise and here is an example of some bad trade management: Setup was fine. However price stalled on entry, a warning sign I chose to ignore (I thought, let's give it some room - which I think was the right decision). It then then hit resistance at 77.36 and dropped back almost to entry. SL to BE, would have been an over reaction but I should have been more on the ball as to further price action. The dotted lines show the H L LH setup that a) should have suggested I close my long as the price action was indicating a drop lower and b) opened a short position with the dotted lines as SL etc. Of course in hindsight TP1 would have been hit and then I'd have been stopped out before TP2 so I'd be breakeven for the day, but you never know where price will go. A loss is a loss, you take it and move on. However I believe the reason I didn't - and why I'm posting this trade a day after it all happened - was I'd recently had some good winners (in terms of execution, and pips - short EU 1.4314, cover 1.3572 traded to plan) and was feeling over confident; that old demon called greed strikes again... Okay, now I've got that off my chest I'm going to make dinner...
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Second setup today: eur/usd Long @ 1.36056 Also e-money, that is one indicator I've never heard of, can't help sorry, though I'm intrigued to learn about new ways to look at the markets Update: TP1 filled, then price dropped down to SL, -0.47 R
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Doublepost but: EUR/USD Long @ 1.36722. Stopped out very soon after entry for full stop.
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Hi Thales, I've been reading through the thread from the start and it's a great read so far (pg 190 atm), so much useful stuff has gone on. A couple of years ago you were using FXCM Micro for spot FX trading. Are you still using that or have you/your daughter abandoned it in favour of another spot provider or has she moved to futures? Which futures broker are you using? You might have already given these answers but I've not read all the thread yet. Please feel free to pm me if you'd rather not these question in the forum. Thanks iwshares
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Update: TP3 filled 2.61R, 1.57R net for the day. I'll try to post all the rest of the trades from this set as they happen.
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Really enjoying this mechanical system: I have the chance to overthink the trade but it doesn't affect what I do. Makes a nice break from my usual discretionary trading. I have changed my chart colours to be easier to the eyes. Here's the chart, TP1 hit, waiting for TP2 or SL to adjust stop to BE and leave it alone.
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You defined a set of rules and traded to those rules, therefore it was a good trade. Good work carry on.
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Conducting a trading exercise with very simple rules: 5m EUR/USD, buy/sell in the direction of the daily trend the cross of 5/20 EMA at the market, 3 lots, SL on all lots 20 points, TP1 entry +SL, TP2 a S/R swing (and stop to BE), TP3 the next swing high. Trading London 0700-1100 (but manage any open trades after those times). On trade 5/20. Sold 3 @ 1.41734 SL 1.41934 TP1 1.41534 TP2 1.41335 TP3 1.41774 P.s. I'm aware the entry, SL and TP1 aren't necessarily S/R optimal but they are determined mechanically by the system (next time round I'll put in some entry optimising rules), with only TP2 and TP3 discretionary. Update - stopped out 2 mins after posting, as I expected would happen based on S/R, but I can't filter what trades I take based on what I think will happen, just have to follow the rules and change them once the exercise is completed.
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Reading through some old threads came across this gem from Dinero Trader at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/traders-log/7306-trader-p-l-2010-a-44.html Losses Losses in trading can very reasonably be viewed as operating expenses. In trading, losses are a necessary part of daily operations. Maximizing revenue and minimizing expenses is how every business must operate and trading is no exception. If your profit margin is tight like Walmart, you simply increase transaction volume and in turn profits go up while maintaining historical margins. Thinking you can eliminate losses in trading is like a hair salon owner wishing they didn't have to pay employees or pay for supples. That salon owner wants to keep those costs down as much as possible without affecting revenues. The owner could only hire 16 year old hair stylists to keep wage expense low but that most likely would in turn decrease revenue from repeat customers. A trader can easily make the same mistake and cut profits by trying to decrease expenses (losses) to excessively. There is a careful balance of accepting expenses and revenues that must be maintained while always striving to adapt to market changes. A business owner would not characterize a wage expense as a loss and neither should a trader. I will define and shift my own paradigm in trading to realize that each trade loss is simply part of my business expense structure.
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My questions for you, and it's just food for thought, is at what point did you identify it as an area of resistance? How did this affect your decision to take a long versus a short position? Is a break-even trade the same as a neutral position?
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My two cents: R is the amount you are risking on each trade. If you are not willing to risk R on each trade then reduce the size of R to an amount you are willing to risk. A word of wisdom from another trader "each time you place a trade think of it as writing a cheque to your broker, then you might be pleasantly surprised when you check your screen later". Without wanting to sound like an advert for Amazon, check out "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas.
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For position trading I can see the benefits of using COT, as for short term I had the following ideas over my afternoon coffee: As background information you could use it as a "heads-up" on market sentiment for the following week e.g. with a big net short position amongst the non coms, I'd expect we'd hit a support this week, so I'd keep my eye towards the bottom of the daily range to buy support. This would correlate with the 1115 ish support we've seen so far. As for trade parameter, I saw one "buy my expensive guaranteed to make you a million for $495" indicators and from what I could deduce from the grainy screenshot it was a moving average of the commercials/moving average of the non-coms crossover system. This could be incorporated into a system of price of volume to be: IF com>non-com buy daily low OR com<non-com sell daily high or even a divergence filter so gap has to be X before you take a position in either direction With stop losses and profit targets set however you choose. This is assuming that in the e-mini S&P future commercial positions drive price (something I have not tested/researched yet). Of course if the commercials are just buying in preparation for a bounce back up in a 3 months time this wouldn't be very helpful in the here and now of day trading. I'll have a look at this if I get a chance. iwshares
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Hi Negotiator I'm finding you analysis method very useful in helping me work on my approach to the markets. I'm wondering, do you only consider technical factors or do you take fundamental data e.g. COT into account. CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CME (Futures Only) What I find quite interesting is the commercials are essentially balanced long and short with little change since last week, while the non commercials have dropped their longs by 30% from last week and increased their shorts. Any thoughts? Thanks iwshares
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Hey Cory, Going along with MK's idea of analysing your past trades to see what would have happened with different profit taking situations, I'm wondering if you've read Van Tharp's book "How to Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom". An important thing I took away from it was the idea of having a system that meets your beliefs. Specifically if you want to lose very little money (bar commissions) on a trade and occasionally make large profits (e.g. by jumping on fast moving trends that don't retrace before TP hit), then adjusting stops to BE is a great idea. Have you written down the specific goals you have for your trading system regarding drawdowns, profitability etc e.g. what is your approach to risk? I've found it very helpful to think of trading in these terms. iwshares
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Great quote, I'll keep remembering that when the markets moves against my position!
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Sounds like you've hit the nail on the head!
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Predict the Price of Gold and Silver!
iwshares replied to MadMarketScientist's topic in Market News & Analysis
Gold: $1730 Silver: $47.5 -
Just wondering, do you adjust stops to breakeven to below a support/resistance/sma etc, trail your stops, or just leave your trades to hit a profit target or be closed manually? Do you ever look to see if closing your trades manually cuts you out of big profits in the long run, or does it actually act as nifty capital preservation?
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Yeah I'd also be interested to hear how you're getting on developing the exit strategy, it's something I'm working on at the moment with my own plan and would be interested in your perspective on exits
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A few weeks later, but I'm intrigued, what was the market doing when you posted that comment? Also I've noticed you have a similar trading approach to what I'm moving towards which leads me to ask: Edwards and McGee suggest a 3% change in a shares price (equity markets) following a breakout provides confirmation of a breakout, though for futures it seems like a move could be all but over if left that long. Have you, or others ever looked at this? Thanks
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Hi FXAllday, Not sure if you are still reading this forum but I've got some more thoughts on EUR/USD: Price has been in an intermediate term downtrend since hittting the 1.49 high in May. Rather than following the IT downchannel, price formed a triangle, which broke out to the downside 11/7/11, This breakout reversed at point A. Was this a false breakout of the triangle or was that the fullmove? Price then entered a short term upchannel, within the IT downchannel. It has hit resistance at 1.445 and pulled back, though still within the upchannel. There is the potential of an upward triangle forming, which indicates a possible break to the upside. However price not returning to the upchannel upper edge indicates a possible failure of the up channel and a breakout to the downside, keeping price withing the IT downtrend. As written on the chart Plan A would be to short a retest - if it happens - of 1.445. Plan B would be to go long if price breaks through the 1.445 resistance, the IT downtrend line, a "real" breakout of the first triangle and a breakout of the upward triangle forming in the ST upchannel. Be aware of possible resistance around the last IT downtrend touch at 1.4577. Hope this is of use to someone, please note this is not trading advice, just my take on the current situation and I would appreciate anyone else's thought/comments. Thanks IWshares N.b. the upward lines on the chart represent the 50% and 75% points of the channel. Will price move into a sideways range if the triangle "expires" without a firm breakout?
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Trading the Grains - Soy, Corn, Wheat
iwshares replied to brownsfan019's topic in The Candlestick Corner
Who are you using? I'm based in London uk so am worried about picking a bad broker out there. Feel free to pm me if you don't want to say in the forum. Thanks Iwshares