richbois

Far from me to critisise or claim to understand the way you use and apply Taylor, however the last time that TTT didnt perform according to plan was on Dec 2nd when we had a failled 3 day rally. The effect of that falliure got corrected on Dec 8th when we ended up with a very shallow Decline on that Buy day. Again today so far is showing a shallower decline but this could explained that the markets have turned a bit more bullish as of late

I find that the 24h globex projections better but the day session open help in deciding what to do in case of gaps that produce violations on Sell days or SS day.

Today was SS day. Only TF managed to make a new high but not by much. Since the others failed to follow then the markets went and tested the lows with ES reaching the precise projected lows.

If you have read Taylor, he says that on Buy day we need a Decline from the highs of the SS day. So on Wednesday we closed near the highs and therefore needed a decline on the Buy day, that is why we went lower. Taylor used to highball is book to figure out how much the Decline should be, however with computers today we can use programs like excel to calculate averages and have a better idea of what the move should be. On Friday we violated the lows giving us a chance to buy and then it rallied. Perfect text book Taylor. Most of us are daytraders so we are looking for a direction for the day, and we dont care what the name of the day is, if we need a decline then we short, if we need a rally then we long, it is nearly that simple. Check my website you will find lots of additional info. http://www.taylortradingtechnique.net

TF is the futures contract for the Russell index

That is correct today is SS day however last friday was a sell day not a buy day here is the list for this month for ES the Blue means made Last and Pink is made 1st This cycle is good for the US Index Futures only as other instruments may be on different cycles.

There is no 10 day cycle. The 10 days that Taylor talks about is to start your book. You pick the day with the lowest low during those 10 days and call that your Buy day, then name your other days accordingly. So it will depend when you start your book you could end up with a different cycle then me. That is the most confusing part of Taylor theory, I started my ES book last January and at that time the major low was on Jan 22,2008 and I am still using that as my base. Like I said earlier I then made statistics based on Positive 3 Day Cycle and when I try to change the 1st day of my data to a different day I get lower percentage. That is why I keep my cycles the way they are. If you started a new book today you could use November 21st low as your Buy day which was a Sell day for me. Either way if you trade the logic properly it will be accurate at a high %% of return. That is why some others like Angell re-cycle their days but that only confuses things. When a Day fails to do what it is suppose to do it usualy corrects it self in the next day or two, therefore it is simpler to stick with the original cycle. This week Monday was a SS day. During the overnight session ES rallied to the my projected high and then dropped all day, normal for a SS day High made 1st. It started a rally just before the closed. Tuesday was Buy day, the low was made first on the 24 hour session and we ended up with a gap up for the day session. TVGR took effect and we rallied all day. Today is the Sell day. Sell days have been notorious for being the confusing day. Having reached the average target for a Sell day at the close yesterday, the markets declined overnight and gapped down at the open. TVGR took effect on ES but TF closed the gap at the start. It took half the day to finally close the gap but when ES tried to penetrate the previous day high it ran out of steam and pulled back. TF managed to penetrate and stopped climbing at the projected highs that were sent in the report last night. see picture I hope that helps

That is the way I see it also. Names are names I just use that same names as Taylor but I agree that it would be easier with day 1 -2 - 3 for most people to understand. I also agree that Angell and Raschke have a different take on TTT. Angell even got in trouble with LSS as he claimed he traded it in live acct but never did. Well that is if I understand the lawsuit correctly. Anyway I prefer to stick to Taylor and I just added statistics to it which helps in today's markets.

Hi Eiger I originally started my TTT E-books based on Taylor's 10 day principle. Later while I was doing statistics on everything, I discovered that we get Positive 3 Day Cycles even in this bear markets. Since then when I start a new TTT E-book for a different instrument, I use that criteria to pick which cycle day was the 1st day. A Positive 3 Day rally is calculated from the Buy day low to the SS day high. However to answer your question, once the cycle is set I never change it. I tried that a few times but when even I did it proved to be incorrect for days even weeks. I started with data from Jan 1, 2008 on the US index futures, and the cycle is still correct as of today. It still produces over 85% positive 3 day rallies. The only thing I am experimenting with at the moment is using a moving average for my statistics due to the high volatility of late. It seems to help for some markets more then others. I hope that helped PS These Positive 3 Day Rallies demonstrates the genius of Taylor and how these markets are manipulated.

This Rule is cited from Victor Sperandeo’s book: Trader Vic II: Principles of Professional Speculation, pg. 231 The Trader Vic Gap Rule (TVGR) "If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10-15 minutes after the opening 95% of the time. Please believe me on the odds, they are real. If the market continues in the direction of the gap after 10 to 15 minutes, it is a strong sign that the move will continue for the rest of the day, closing in that direction as well. Even if the market reverses after the 10-15 minute period, if it fails to fill the gap, odds are that the market will close in the direction of the gap." This is the comment included with the report, my customers received last night for today's trading "Tomorrow is Sell day. We already achieved the average rally. We have a 50/50 chance of making a higher high, however we do have 60% chance of making a lower low."

Today was a Buy day. Again today we had a shallow Decline. We did have 60% of the low made first, We gapped up, TVGR took effect and we reached the projected highs. That was the comments in tonight's report

Frank, this has to be the best explanation of Taylor I have read. Thank you Richard

I didn't read all the posts on this thread, however from the ones I read, Dogpile by his own admission is not trading the pure Taylor. "WHY" has a very good grasp of the concept. I believe I am on the pure side also. I have created my books like Taylor explains, however added much more to it. Having done these additions, which are realy all based on what Taylor mentions in his book but not in his TRADING BOOK, I have discovered some very interesting facts. There is a 3 DAY cycle, and there is ways to trade them. Taylor explains it all in his book and it is just a matter learning how to trade each facets. B,S,SS days and then High or Low made first or last, all come in to play. Today we have computers to make things easier, Taylor didn't, and with that we can calculate levels and odds of where the cycle will take each instrument on a given day. I call my books E-Books for Electronic Books Knowing in advance what to expect, and having a framework of where the market is going to encounter support and resistance, makes it easier to trade on the right side. I have discovered that we get POSITIVE 3 DAY cycle even in bear markets. Look at the last 9 months, all indexes have dropped about 25%, however and we have had better than 85% Positive 3 Day cycles. That ratio is even higher in some stocks, as high as 95+%. All that is important when you want to trade the pure Taylor Method.

I have been trading the TTT method for a while now and have develloped my own way of doing that. I made my own books for stocks and for indexes futures, and pushed the Taylor's method to the 21st century. Taylor created this method but when you read his book in between the line you will find that he forgot to write lots of things. Also when you read Taylor you will notice that a Buy day is not always for buying and the same goes for the other days