Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

contactape

Members
  • Content Count

    1
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Personal Information

  • First Name
    TradersLaboratory.com
  • Last Name
    User
  • Country
    United States

Trading Information

  • Vendor
    No
  • Favorite Markets
    Options
  1. Hello, I've been testing this strategy last few weeks, on weeklys. Here are the rules I followed: 1. Must be an ETF (during testing phase) 2. High level of liquidity and preferably penny bid/ask spread. 3. Min credit 4%, max 10% - to limit risk. 4. Spread must of beyond near-term resistance level. The stronger the better. 5. Spread must be at least 5 strike prices away. 6. During testing phase, ticker price must be more than 100$. This is to get choices for every 1% change in price. Gradually shift this limit to 50$. 7. Wrote a program to find the price move of the underlying beween ticker price that time of day and closing on expiration for last 1 year. Out of 52 instances, max 3 or 4 instances should have resulted in loss. (Thinking is - in those 3-4 instances, volatility would be so high that I would be able to go way way far OOTM to get other criteria met, so they may not result in loss). 8. Never initiate a new position in last 2 days of expiration. Only SPY met all these criteria. And with decent levels of volatility last month, this worked out well. But this last week volatily crushed dramatically, forcing me to explore other avenues. So did two things: 1. Bought 22.5/24 June VIX call bull spread for debit. 2. Bought SPY, LVS, PCLN reverse IC (Debit) this Thursday for next Friday expiration. Here's my thoughts on them, would appreciate inputs/comments/criticism: 1. High beta (yes, I am debating my tell on SPY - probably wouldn't repeat it) 2. Low VIX days. (Switch to selling Vertical spreads in moderate/high volatility days) 3. Opened those positions Thursday morning, may be should wait until Friday (to take initial fluctuations in options prices off) or even Monday (to void weekend's theta decay). 4. Premium paid must NOT be more than (I am thinking) about 50%. I spent 58%, 59% and 64% - which look on higher side. Any suggestions? 5. Need to look at charts and do some technical analysis to assess probability of high movement in underlying. 6. Check the program to see average price moves in last 52 months for this trade to be profitable statistically. 7. Actually, check how this could work in moderate/high volatility market. I suspect volatility would drive prices too high for this to have the trade enough juice left for profitability. Did quite a bit of reasearch on this, aint' getting much. I'm reading Sheldon Natenburg, and the guy is just great! Difficult with full time job though. If anyone has any suggestion /good presentation/video... on subject, please do share. Please do share your ideas on what other criteria should I consider in chosing reverse IC in this market. Or at least criticise to tell me where you think I am making mistake.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.