GlassOnion

Most Forex Books Authors and "so called mentors" are not Active Traders. Why? Would you trust the advice of someone who does not trade?

The truth: It's important to follow the rules but its more important to know when to quit. You know your sys and style better than me but personally I would ask 'why have I had a good week?'. If it's because of optimum mental focus, good attention and decision making then yes if that's in danger of being diluted after big wins then a break would be in order. However if it's been a good week because of something the market has been doing then it would not make sense to stop - if the market is still in that state then make hay while the sun shines. That could be academic though because as you say it's easy to fluff up and get complacent and over trade if over confident so even if the market is acting optimally you can't trade well if you

I sometimes hear forex compared to poker. The similarities are not actually all that great. No trading session has ever ended with an exchange of insults, spilled whiskey, an upturned table and a gun fight between a bunch of unwashed guys in cowboy hats. Has it?!

News feeds like IFR and Dow Jones are good, but a good collection of Twitter feeds can be even better. Share your favourite trading feeds on Twitter! https://twitter.com/OrderFlowForex https://twitter.com/forexlive https://twitter.com/zerohedge https://twitter.com/markiteconomics https://twitter.com/stlouisfed https://twitter.com/pimco https://twitter.com/nouriel https://twitter.com/djfxtrader https://twitter.com/ReutersInsider'>https://twitter.com/ReutersInsider https://twitter.com/Reuters https://twitter.com/BloombergNews https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes

As the title says, how many trades do you take a week? And please list the Market, ie: forex, options etc.

There are a million ways to make money in this market. The irony is that they are all very difficult to find.

@Perrin: Generic Multinational Coffee Company UK Branch opens a shop in your town. Here in the states we call it Walmart.

1. I am comfortable risking 90% of my account on a single trade. 2. Martingale is awesome. 3. Ill just turn this EA on and ill be rich in a few weeks. 4. If I pay this guy $2000 he will give me the holy grail.

Title says it all, what's your New Years resolutions for trading? What will you resolve to do better in the new year? What do you plan on improving? What will you start doing new in 2013? What will you try to cut out in the new year? Etc.. What's your trading new years resolution? -- As for myself, I plan on pushing myself out of my comfort zone and start taking some trades in longer timeframes (daily, weekly.) I usually scalp and trade intraday, which has a lot to do with my work's influence in equities where our trade floor is flat by the end of the day no matter what, but I've been experimenting with longer timeframes and strategies that would be considered swing trading and I can't ignore that there's opportunity to be had using strategies that hold for weeks or months. (Can't let myself get set in my ways, gotta expand my ability to include trading styles that aren't my main digs.)

If you could use only 3 indicators on your chart what would the be? ( and yes I am aware that some traders use no indicators ).

Hi Tradeforever ! I am a Forex trader as well, about 10 years. Don't hesitate to ask question in the Forex section or the beginners section. The forum has a new "demo" trading contest starting next month in the Forex section . Maybe you would like to join?

Ha ha, your are right. I was ooking at several TFs when trying to figure how ingot went wrong when he shorted.. The 5M got posted. :doh:

so, this is what i think is going to happen: 1) Greece. Greece will get it's new bailout, but it's not going to have a very lasting effect. i doubt it will have an effect at all, actually. the trend it clear - the more austerity Greece takes on, the higher the unemployment. over 25% (1/4 of the country!) is the end of the game. bailouts (money) will not help. money don't create jobs. jobs are created via labor demand which is created via product demand. if there is no labor demand it is pretty much obvious that there is no product demand either... that's where the danger is and there is nothing we can do about it... 2) Spain. well, pretty much the same picture. 2 major differences - Spain is yet to ask for a bailout and when they do it will boost markets for a little while. but 25% unemployment and regional political instability (some regions in Spain wish to part and are subject to revolts!) makes Spain a very dangerous EU member... Spanish bond yields are climbing to 6% and once they've passed this number i think Spain will ask for a bailout. it all depends what other news will dominate. so far i'm seeing worsening statistics. when they were positive (like that 7,8% (or 7,9%?) unemployment in US) the markets were beaten down by extremely heavy manipulations through direct monetary involvement and mass media. now those stats are becoming much weaker primarily in other than USA counties. US is continuing to show some stability (i don't want to call it "improvement")... 3) euro vs usd. there is a currency war going on, only the blind cannot see it. the goal is to bring the dollar down as much as possible. but it's Obama who screwed it up when he (absolutely directly!) manipulated the oil price on the 17th of September 2012! absolute direct manipulation by the president of the USA! if you call a statement about releasing the oil reserve anything else but price manipulation - i'd like to hear it. after this very moment the markets sank. and there is a reason - much lesser trust. QE3 is another failure. frankly i find QEs a one huge fraud. that money was stolen! it is not in the economy, it is somewhere rotating the banking system! no loans - the money is simply going to the stock market... thus the bull run of 2009-2012... but you look at the housing charts, at wages, at disposable income, at unemployment and you'll see - not much progress! even the unemployment is likely just the sign of migration! people migrate back to Latin America, Mexico, Canada, you name it... 4) Germany. i should say the EU, but Germans dominate. Germany is getting weaker and will eventually (rather soon) see it's GDP at 0,0. that will force Germans to push the ECB to cut IR. and that will force the euro down and dollar up! how will the FED react? it can't... expand the QE3? possible. but we're having the debt ceiling issue and the fiscal cliff dead ahead! there cannot be increases in QE3. there can be Twist2 (or is it 3 already?) but will it help? of course not... 5) the US. why won't it help? because of the demand. the dollar is meant to be down for two reasons - inflation and exports. and while it is not hard to inflate (or even hyperinflate) it is going to be impossible to export! because your buyers are broke, they don't have any money. what are you gonna do if there is no demand?! and who's your primary client? - the EU! the same EU that is pretty much in a coma state... the dollar has no other way to go but higher... and that'll have all imaginable consequences - exports drop, less demand, more firing, more unemployment, and even lesser demand, more mortgage walks, falling prices, more layoffs, more businesses going under... you get the picture - massive deflation. 6) and here comes the fiscal cliff... this is what it is FISCAL CLIFF ...in short - it's unavoidable. short term bullish sign would be postponing the cliff. trying to come to a consensus and especially trying to touch the taxes - is suicidal... if investors get the hint that taxes will be raised even 1% they will immediately draw the money from the stocks for sole purpose of paying less income taxes, and that alone will crash the market! not raising taxes should make the middle class very angry because the rich should pay more taxes, it's common sense... if the rich get another slack the middle won't be happy because they understand that it is bad for the budget... it is very likely that they will cut military spendings to the point of no or minor damage to the industry and at the same time enough of a showoff. i'd say not more than 50bln, and only temporarily because there is a war coming... 7) Iran (and the whole region for that matter)... there will be a war, i'm sure of it. and it's not a healthy war! it is sick actually. US' external policies are always just vomitingly sick! with the new war the US will not be able to cut military spendings much and for too long. actually cutting them is no better than continuing them! because it's the question of a lot of jobs. tens of thousands... the military machine in the US is so huge they could have taken over Mars if somebody was living there. it's dis-proportionally huge to its means... and cutting it even a little bit will result in a certain kickback. so obviously cutting big and for long isn't an option... if you can't cut it you have to come up with an excuse for it. how? with a war... there is no alternative... 8) China. when the freefall process starts it will ultimately drag China into it. and China is a huge producer. a small drop in demand will result in big drop in Chinese exports. a bigger drop in demand will crash the Chinese industries (ultimately crashing Australian markets to the floor!...). the Chinese have some maneuverability - there is a lot they can do, but just like with the US the question is - what can they do if there is no demand? EU is a major buyer. no EU - who's gonna buy?.. and the island dispute with Japan doesn't help neither side... 9) Japan. pretty much the same issue of demand. worse - the Japanese have no maneuverability! IR at 00, QEs continue... there isn't much the Japanese can do though they do manage to remain humane towards their fellow citizens during harsh times... However - it is very likely that we will see the last bull run before this happens. and it'll be based on the following: Greece and Spain each getting bailed out in the coming 2-3 weeks. Fiscal cliff is likely to be postponed, though it is hard to predict how far out. the debt ceiling issue is due february so they might either postpone it till then or have a much longer delay. they may also make some cuts, probably in military spendings. i think something like 50bln will do - it's enough to say "look, we're doing something!" and it's not enough to damage the industry... talks about raising taxes is an absolute no-no! raising taxes is a very bad idea right now and i think Obama was placed (not elected) for the reason of cooperating with the rich in this (even if you heard him say otherwise in his campaign... talk is cheap and Obama makes no decisions what so ever. especially in politics...). by the way the debt ceiling is not a big issue either! but it is likely that markets will start to shrink right before it. reason - what's the option? - default or raise the ceiling. of course they will raise it. say to 20trl... that will consequently result in an immediate USA downgrade from the S&P, Moodies, and so on... i don't think it is the point of collapse though. i believe the spark must come from the most troubled, and the most troubled is Europe. but it can also come from Asian countries, for example Australia or Japan. ...it's not easy, as you may imagine, to pinpoint the location and timing, but the location doesn't matter so much. it won't be States that's for sure. the States will actually perform well. look at today's (core) retail sales for example. down, right? remember Sandy? it's simply a temporary delay. next time it comes out it will probably be much, much better. and what's for timing - i give it maximum 6 months before markets die. meaning not AFTER 6 months - meaning sometime DURING the next 6 month... most likely by the end of 1st Q 2013...

I was reading a news story about some arrogant hedge fund manager in NY. Apparently the guy made a $400 withdrawal and did not bother to take his reciept . The per next in lin at the ATM looked at it and it had a $2.75 million dollar balance. The story had been broken by a site called dealbreaker.com I had never heard of them. Anyone else out there know of them? Is there reporting reputable? http://http://dealbreaker.com/

Why not cut rares now ? some people ask? very easy, because Ben said so. US is leading a currency war and aims to have as cheaper usd as possible. and it is not succeeding! despite 00% IR, despite all those QEs and twists the dollar is very high, nearly 81 on the index - this is not good. if Draghi lowers the euro it'll give even more strength to the dollar. the more strength it gains the more pressure it gives on commodities such as oil (which is a good thing actually having cheaper gas (which does not get any cheaper though...) as it brings down expenses on manufacturing and logistics). but we leave in a world where economy is no longer a science - it is a subjective dream, idea, theory, call it whatever - nebulous... point is - there is a currency war where the States sacrifices half of EU and endangers the euro as a currency. and Draghi obeys the FED in helping it to keep the dollar down. i suppose it's not necessary to explain why the US needs cheap dollar? - for increased exports. btw we'll see the trade balance today and will see how increasingly expensive usd affects it.

Messy charts, messy mind. Indicators are great if they are part of your system, but if not, toss them out. Our mind does a great job at filtering out anything that doesn’t support a positive outcome for us. It’s just another way our mind deals with stress. Ever been in a trade that doesn’t start off so good and you immediately drop to a longer timeframe to see if it’s worth sticking around? Yeah, if the trade was wrong to begin with, turning it into a longer term trade isn’t going to save you. It’s better to just to cut your loss and move on. Or, ever get in a trade that goes bad only to realize that the indicator you had right in front of you clearly said not to execute? Chart clutter can only serve to give us too much information. Our brain will simply ignore it should the information cause us pain. Yes, we’ll “see” it, but the indicator’s importance will be dimmed in our unconscious, and after the trade all we are left with is the feeling of being silly for ignoring it. Strip your charts down to just the price itself. Only add a new indicator if it’s absolutely required. Personally I don’t trade with many indicators at all (I trade from completely clean charts but use CCI in some cases for a specific strategy that involves it.) Nearly all of them are lagging and can only tell you where price has been or what the dynamics of the market in the recent past. You must live in the moment as a trader, remember that, so while indicators can be useful, you shouldn’t let them just add to the noise. Too much noise, conflicting signals, and you’ll end up in trading paralysis (feeling uncomfortable being long, short or even flat.) Part of living in the moment as a trader is accepting that the market can and will do anything it pleases despite what it’s done recently. Think the Euro can’t go any higher? It might. Think the Loonie is overvalued? It might be… or it might continue to chug along gaining value. Indicators won’t stop a currency, stock, or anything from going anywhere. Heck, the euro has no idea what MACD is, nor does it care, it ONLY reacts to order flow and order flow isn’t only looking at MACD.

Qiuman, very useful. Thank You.

My first mentor's name was Mike. He was a young guy who traded currencies for Tudor's fund in NYC. According to him, he was the youngest ever full-time trader for PTJ. I met him online, very unexpected, but it required me taking advantage of something I had seen and understanding the implications of it. To wit, he had posted a 3-sentence post on MoneyTec saying he wanted to mentor 2-3 people. I contacted him and he sent me a questionnaire that initially I found off-putting. It was detailed and designed to see what I knew about markets and basic financial math. He also wanted me to take a Myers-Briggs test. Fortunately, I had taken one about 6 months earlier when my wife and I were in marriage counseling (yes, 8 years later we’re still married). About a week later, I figured what the hell, I’ll answer it. I sent it to him, along with Myers-Briggs results and he contacted me a couple of days later. After talking to him a couple of times about ourselves and what he wanted to do, I told him I needed to verify his bona fides. He said he'd be very disappointed in me if I didn't. He then told me to call the fund’s office in Greenwich and ask for Mr. X. This was a man who he had worked with and was still trading for PTJ. Two days later I got the number from the net and called the office at their lunchtime. I got reception and asked for Mr. X. He answered the phone and I told him that Mike had given me his name. I explained what was going on with us and that I needed to verify his story. We talked for 15 minutes and this man seemed genuinely interested in talking to me and didn’t rush me off the phone. He verified everything that Mike had told me, about working in the NYC office, being the youngest trader, pushing a $50 million account, and consistently making his targets for 5 years. And then abruptly leaving. Unfortunately, things didn’t go so well for him. He said he walked away from PTJ with about $12 million. But he was like the stereotype of what I think, and I’m sure others, is the typical Wall Street trader. . .young, brash, brilliant, well-educated, over-confident and arrogant to a degree. Coming into so much money so quickly and at such a young age, many like him don’t know what to do with it, so they blow a lot of it. Women, drugs and booze is a familiar refrain simply because they’re the best things to spend lots of money on for many folks. He told me the story of how after one particularly stupefied day and night, he received a call from his broker to inform him he had lost over $1 million dollars on a trade on either the Hang Seng or the Nikkei. He still has no recollection of putting on the trade, but he lost that money. He’s a cautionary tale, to be sure. Mike was, and still is, one of the smartest and sharpest people I’ve ever known. He’s an astute reader of people. He had me pegged in no time and he consistently amazed me by being able to determine what I was thinking and going to do at any given time. Given my background, I’ve met lots of smart people, but he’s one of best. As I’ve said before, it has taken me some time to fully understand what he tried to teach me. I remember waiting for the hammer to drop, for the “Big Secret or Technique” that would explain trading. But he told me in the very beginning that he could not make me into a successful trader, but only show me how I could make myself into one. Of course, the hammer never dropped, because there is no “Big Secret”. But there is a way to go about becoming a successful trader. It’s there for everyone to see if they want to, and I’ve seen some guys here on these forums do so. It’s called desire, consistency, self-knowledge and a fucking huge work ethic. That’s the Big Secret. I’ve worked with 6-7 people over the years trying to teach them. Only 1 of them showed what was needed. Anyway, enough of this. I’m sure some will understand what I’ve tried to get across, others won’t, some will later on, and some will scoff. None of it matters to me, really, as not a single person on these forums has any impact on my life or my trading. And that’s a big part of the Big Secret.

Tell me what you've learnt in your trading experience I'm talking about everything BUT the entry and strategy side of things Yes patience and all that... give me something new. What I learned is: 1) The market doesn't give a $hit about me or anyone of us. 2) Must stay nimble. If your position isn't going your way, kill it. Exit. Take the loss and move on. 3) Always protect yourself. Always use a Stop. 4) The market at times seems erratic, there is logic in its pricing movement. We may not see it because of our particular strategy. 5) Its ok to go off strategy. See an entry that does not conform to your strategy, take it anyway. You never know where it might take you. That's how we learn. 6) Don't be afraid of timeframes. If your favorite timeframe isn't giving you the entry/exits you're looking for, move to another timeframe. Don't lock yourself in any one particular timeframe. 7) Every position needs a target. Those with the "let it ride" strategies won't work. You get an entry, place a stop, and place a profit target. Whether its 20 pips away or 500 pips away, you're trades need a goal. (something to aim for).

does price have a memory? no memory? does the market care about momentum? or is it all discounted in the price at every second it is quoted? are we shooting darts in the dark in a random market? can we exploit inefficiencies? can we forecast the future via statistical representations of price movements? Although I have my views on the matter I want to open a discussion about it. some academics think that the masses flock to TA due to ignorance and laziness....due to it is easier to try to find patterns in a chart even if you do not know exactly what you are looking at. some technicians believe all you need is a chart, all else is mental masturbation. what are your views....newbie,wannabes, experts all ideas welcomed.

Nothing to do with PA, FA or TA,,, This is about understanding the human Element . Pit Traders are people too.They have to eat, they have to pee and they have to get a grip on the Market direction. After all, this is not their first venture into the Market. Evoloution told them to pee at the same time as other traders because that's when they get their ass whipped. Eating is optional. Market direction is in their hands. So... As an Outsider, {never had an inclination to stand in, or trade from, a Pit. All posts from the pit are exposed . I have observed the following. 8:00 AM Open to 10:00 AM = Rape, Pillage OR Stalk 11:30 AM Spike = Goin' to lunch and need some profit to Close. 1:30 PM Correction = OK, We're back and we're gonna move it as much as we can. {wtf were you guys thinkin'} 3:00 PM slowdown is caused by Daytraders getting out Early and Swings/Carry doubting their Trade will now Mature. If the above is a revelation to you, YOU still don't know the Market. To the others.... Correct my times if you feel the need.

Youri Gellar is a famous ( or infamous) Israeli physic. He can bend spoons with his mind. Allegedly he has a direct line to W.D. Gann. Oh, wait a minute, I just Googled him. The Israeli Physic is Uri Gellar, not Youri. Never mind.

I think "Soultrader" would have to be included.

This was sent to me by my mentor. It's invaluable, but you really need to internalize it. One thing all good teachers know is that just because I show you something it doesn't mean you're going to learn it, nor does it mean you're going to learn it now. In my journey as a trader, a lot of things have taken quite some time for me to truly learn them. This is one of them. If you learn nothing else, learn this: Good Trade – A trade taken in accordance with your rules. Winning Trade – A trade that makes money. Bad Trade – A trade taken that is not in accordance with your rules. Losing Trade – A trade that loses money. The trading methodology that Richard Dennis taught his Turtles is arguably one of the most difficult trading methods for a typical trader to execute. Not only does it require the trader to hold on to winning positions for extraordinary lengths of time and profit, but also it requires continually adding to that position if the market moves in the direction of the trade. Since adding to positions raises the average price, the Turtles will often give back substantial profits on retracements and often be stopped out of a trade that rode a significant trend with no profit to show for it. While all trend traders play for the outlier, Turtles play for the outlier of the outliers—typically just one trend a year. How is it that they have the discipline to hold on to positions for so long, continually adding all the way? How is it that they can maintain this discipline after having watched so many profitable trades go bust? And how is that such a large percentage of the people Dennis taught were able to do this successfully when these qualities seem so rare? The answer is that the Turtles learned very early the difference between a Good Trade and a Winning Trade and the difference between a Bad Trade and a Losing Trade. During the two-week training course, Dennis told the Turtles that he wasn’t evaluating them on whether they made money, but whether or not they stuck to the methodology. Since traders could lose money for long periods of time trading his method, it was especially important that they understand that as long as they took Good Trades, they would ultimately make money. Whether or not the trade was a Winning Trade was of no consequence. If these traders evaluated their performance in the short/medium term on profitability, they would have folded a long time ago. For another example, let’s look at Mark Weinstein (also profiled in Market Wizards). Weinstein has an extraordinary win/loss ratio and has achieved this by being ultra-selective with his trades. As a result, Mark must necessarily pass on an enormous number of trades that subsequently go his way. What would happen to his trading if he lamented every missed opportunity and or lowered his standards every time he “missed” a trade so that it would meet his criteria next time? What would happen if he treated the next trade with a view to “not missing it this time?” I would imagine he’d be like the majority of the people—a losing trader. Mark isn’t superhuman. He would probably lament the missed trade like anyone else if he actually saw it as a missed trade. But he doesn’t. Mark knows that his job is to take Good Trades. A trade not taken that ultimately “wins” doesn’t bother him because his final decision was that it wasn’t a Good Trade. Many rookie traders would beat themselves up about “missing a trade” and their trading would be negatively affected for the next series of trades, often disastrously. Knowing the difference between a good trade and a winning trade, and a bad trade and a losing trade will be one of the most profitable, stabilizing, productive distinctions you will ever make in your career as a trader. For the rookie trader, “missing” a winning trade is more demoralizing than taking a losing trade. But by far the worst trade for a developing trader would be the Bad Winning trade. All it serves to do is reinforce behaviors that will ultimately ruin him/her. Many of the traders in Market Wizards made their greatest reforms after taking a disastrous Bad Losing trade. I really hope that all your Bad trades will be losers (though I don’t hope they’re as disastrous). Taking a Good/Bad trade is within your control, taking a Winning/Losing trade isn’t. How do we best use this information? 1. Create a set of objective rules for determining what constitutes a Good Trade. If there is a discretionary range within the rules, and you were within the discretionary range, the trade is still Good. 2. By default, know that any trade that has yet to be classified as Good is Bad. If you’re still evaluating whether a trade is Good, it is still Bad. All trades are Bad until proven Good. 3. When you take a Good trade that loses, Stand Proud knowing you had the guts to take a small loss. 4. When you don’t take a trade that you had been considering that ultimately wins, Stand Proud and marvel at your ability to recognize the difference between a Good Trade and a Winning trade and act like the professional that you’ve obviously become. 5. Set a time limit within which you will not modify your rules for determining if a trade is Good. You must periodically evaluate your methodology but only at prescribed intervals. Proper risk management rules will prevent you from losing much money if your methodology has ceased working for you. __________________

How a Forex system operates in real time Online foreign exchange trading occurs in real time. Exchange rates are constantly changing, in intervals of seconds. Quotes are accurate for the time they are displayed only. At any moment, a different rate may be quoted. When a trader locks in a rate and executes a transaction, that transaction is immediately processed; the trade has been executed. Up-to-date exchange rates As rates change so rapidly, any Forex software must display the most up-todate rates. To accomplish this, the Forex software is continuously communicating with a remote server that provides the most current exchange rates. The rates quoted, unlike traditional bank exchange rates, are actual tradable rates. A trader may choose to “lock in” to a rate (called the “freeze rate”) only as long as it is displayed. Trading online on Forex platforms The internet revolution caused a major change in the way Forex trading is conducted throughout the world. Until the advent of the internet-Forex age at the end of the 1990’s, Forex trading was conducted via phone orders (or fax, or in-person), posted to brokers or banks. Most of the trading could be executed only during business hours. The same was true for most activities related to Forex, such as making the deposits necessary for trading, not to mention profit taking. The internet has radically altered the Forex market, enabling around the clock trading and conveniences such as the use of credit cards for fund deposits. Forex on the internet: basic steps In general, the individual Forex trader is required to fulfill two steps prior to trading: • Register at the trading platform • Deposit funds to facilitate trading Requirements vary with each trading platform, but these steps bear further discussion: Registering Registration is done online by the individual trader. There are various forms used in the industry. Some are quite simple, where others are longer and more time-consuming. In part, this can be attributed to governmental or other authorities’ requirements, though some Forex platforms require more information than is actually needed. Some even require a face-to-face meeting, or to obtain hard copies of required documents such as a passport, or driver’s license. The key requirements for registration are the trader’s full name, telephone, e-mail address, residence, and sometimes also the trader’s yearly income or capital (equity) and an ID number (passport / driver’s license / SSN / etc.). Typically, the Forex platform is not required to run a thorough check, but rely on the registrant to be truthful. Nevertheless, each Forex platform conducts certain routines, in order to check and verify the authenticity of the details provided. Registrants are required to declare that funds used for trading are not in question, and are not the result of any criminal act or money laundering activity. This is mandatory as part of a global anti-money laundering effort .