joshdance

I did not explain the targets, but the chart itself should have made that evident. If it's not, then perhaps it's enough to say that your "method" is not aligned with what these targets. Correct. Yes, I didn't expect it to go quite so soon, I was as fast as I could be here, I still posted before it really popped though. I explained the premise, and one should be able to mentally draw a line at 54 as I explained it very clearly. I did not explain the premise on the earlier trades, nor the short I took before that either. I'm not for lines on a chart as you are so much; your charts and terminology are equally as confusing and useless to me, as you provide no translation for your "p2" and "traverse" and other words that provide no instructional value except for those who know the terminology, which is very few, and who themselves need no education on the subject matter. I do get something out of them. Anyone, and I mean anyone, can post a chart that explains a premise, why they went long here, etc., but it's all worthless to me. And anyone who thinks they get something out of it, ask yourself, has looking at other people's charts where they showed how they brilliantly took trades really helped you? If so, has it improved your trading? If so, great; if not, maybe the focus is in the wrong place. Trading is done at the right edge of the screen, and a 5 year old can find patterns, support and resistance, etc., after the market has made it clear. But most adults can not do it at the only time it matters.

And here is the big picture entry premise, and the exit. Big picture: the shaded area represents pretty major support, and was gapped below on the Sunday open, and was traded below today. The market traded back above it (54 particularly), and found support twice there after doing so. The second big picture daily shows we are trading strong volume, and have traded back into the range. Bullish, hence the 68 target. However, I closed both units here as I have had a good day and don't really want to play the overnight game today. But I would be very surprised if we do not trade there before we trade back below 55, if we close today above 55. But that's just my view. I bought earlier today at the orange arrows, but that does not really help to know that does it? More important is seeing the pattern at my last entry as it stood when I snapped it and posted it, when it looked to some possibly like the market was ready to head back down in an afternoon push (which could happen, but is not that likely IMO).

No, I mean something like this. Entry posted. I will explain the entry later. The trade will either hit target 1 or it will hit my stop, or I will get out slightly before.

No one is asking for a signaling service. But when you post a trade showing that it is already in profit, it makes it tougher to objectively see the entry in a neutral fashion, for me at least. What does it look like BEFORE, when it could go either way? That's where the real learning happens, by comparing the before and after, not just seeing the after. Have you posted any losing trades? If you did, it would be productive as it shows exceptions to the pattern. Showing a trade that you took that's already well in profit only gives the false impression that the patterns always play out as expected, which of course we both know is not true.

Always like to see these things posted as they happen, especially as you are working on 30 minute charts. Anyone can see a good opportunity on a chart AFTER it has happened, but when you see the opportunity happen and post the chart before it pans out, then it gives the perspective for someone reading the post of seeing it as it appears at the right edge, with no hindsight bias.

Take for example this fall off the cliff into the close. The market is not searching for value, or any of that really. It's just screwing as many people on both sides as it possibly can. There is no logic or searching for value to it. Trap the shorts, and then when they stop out above 1410, trap all the longs who are trying to buy back after such "strength" from the market. All bull shit, sorry, but why else does a market do this? It ain't what it used to be...

It seems one needs a sense of humor to trade ES at all. So willing to buy at 1410, 20 points straight up, and not willing to buy at 1405.. lol

Tom, what's up buddy? I encourage you to post in the thread I created today as it's very related: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/12919-pre-open-plans-hypotheses.html#post148342

There is something about the futures market that has always "bothered" me a bit. I put that in quotes because it's not like it emotionally disturbs me, but rather it simply causes me to scratch my head a little bit. I have always been curious as to why we can see thousands of contracts furiously change hands within seconds, and the market moves very little if at all, as if one side is "guarding" a price level, YET a 5000 contract transaction in the overnight market will likely move the market at least 10 to 12 ticks, if not more. Alas, I don't have a 5000 lot to throw at the market to test it out, but would it even "work"? Maybe someday I can try it out. What Cory is essentially saying (please correct me if I'm wrong, Cory) is that even though the overnight session trades about 20% of the RTH volume, the movement of the market and the importance of the prices traded is no less significant. This is because some major market around the world is open most of the time. At 7pm ET the ASX opens in Sydney. At 8pm the TSE opens in Tokyo. At 9pm it's the HKEX in Hong Kong. When Japan takes their break, HK stays open, and vice versa. At 3am the Frankfurt market opens (at 9am their time), and the LSE opens in London (at 8am their time). Meanwhile, Australia has closed at 1am, Tokyo at 2am, and Hong Kong closes shortly, at 4am, after the European markets have opened at 3am. Only after 11:30am is the US the only major market open in the world. So, all of this global activity, along with the interbank currency market, is mirrored by markets which are not open at the time, like the US futures market. While the futures market is a derivative of the cash market, it's the cash market that "gaps" (though most NYSE stocks are still available to trade up until 8pm ET ) to match the futures market as a result of the premium differential. Likewise, when the exchange in Frankfurt closes at 11:30am ET, DAX futures still trade until 4pm ET, and they will roughly follow the movements of the only major market open, the US market. And even when the DAX futures stop trading at 4pm, they will gap when they open at 2am, to roughly mirror the movement in the other markets (Australia, Tokyo, and China, as mentioned previously). And the premise is that even though very small volume trades from 4:30pm to 9:30am ET, this is a reflection, or representation of global sentiment, and thus the "memory" of the market is contained just as well in those price movements as the ones from the RTH hours. Is this basically how you view things Cory?

Cory, I really wasn't sure what you meant. I assure you, no acting here my friend, though I see what you are talking about now. Blame it on gosu, he uses all sorts of funny words and after reading his stuff you never take for granted anything you read! :rofl: I understand now, and was probably thinking a bit too hard (and was tired) when I wrote this. Put another way, you are more concerned with the end result (price), than the activity (volume) which creates it -- is that a correct assessment, generally? So in other words -- you do care that the market went up, down, up, consolidated, then up again, as opposed to simply going straight up-- but, you don't care about the amount of volume that it took to get it there. Yes? I am going to write the second part of my response in another post since it is separate from this. I think it will agree quite well with what you have said so far. I hope you and all are having a wonderful weekend so far by the way! It's beautiful outside here, hope it is where you are too.

Thanks, very practical BH.. and gosu, you almost made me choke on my pizza, that was so funny.

Based on what I read here regarding fear based on 'lack of preparation,' I just created this thread: Pre-Open Plans and Hypotheses - Traders Laboratory Forums Would love to get feedback there regarding preparation, and "plans."

Speaking of "doing the preparation," I was the most well prepared this past week I have ever been, and traded the worst. I am always prepared to a certain degree, but this idea of "I must have a hypothesis and a plan" before the open is, IMO, a bit of hogwash, though perhaps it works for some. The basic problem is this: let's say the market is at 85. Well, I have identified two "areas of interest" at 90, and at 80. Having these areas on both sides of the market that I have marked as "significant" immediately screws up my bias. Seeing that shaded area above makes me think "short here" and the area below 'buy here".... so, I ignore what I would normally pay attention to, namely, directional bias and market sentiment, and I instead pay attention to that little line or shaded area, which the market has no knowledge of. Having a list of hypotheses A through D (the "plan"), currently creates in me a state of rigidity that leaves me unable to react to the "E" case which I would normally respond to. In the above example, what if the market opens at 85, trades to 83, finds support there, and starts moving back up to 86? Well, it's above the open, and despite the fact that it looked like a possible good buy at 83, my predefined area was 80, so I didn't budge. From the standpoint of my preparation, it was "in the middle." I just hear this over and over about preparation and a plan; yet, I'm simply questioning the wisdom of this. Sports teams, military institutions, businesses, and most everyone has a plan. Sure, I prepare for scheduled market-moving news such as econ reports, speeches, monetary policy, and earnings by being aware of them. I look at the overnight session, and the general market sentiment before the open, and based on this information, I look at where I may want to get long or short. But in the world of trading which has an indeterminate nature (i.e., every day is a new market), is too much of a plan worse than too little?

What is a node CLmac? When you talk about the context derived from overlapping market activity, what is the alternative? Non-overlapping market activity? Is this like looking at each day in its own context, as opposed to compared with prior days, where you would ignore prior highs, lows, etc.? I do not really adhere to many original MP ideas such as the value area where the distribution is not normal, for example. The market price is simply where the market is trading. It is not an entity, or a "thing" -- it is simply a result .... I just don't get how you can say this, but to each his own. I can see the value in this. But there must be some qualification for entering the market if price alone is the sole metric. What do you think? From a practical perspective, I know that early entry often means wrong direction, such as buying a support which has not proved to be a support, and then finding out that the direction was entirely different. I'm sure we've all been there.

I am relatively neutral N -- rejection, but not convinced, and it's hanging around here quite a lot, building value ABOVE yesterday's upper balance area...

The VPOC and VAL are steadily shifting up since the low was put in, and this is possibly the tipping point here... do we really want to be back above yesterday's range and explore prices there, or are we content to accept lower than 99, and possibly explore further down?

Very good post, and I have had many similar thoughts many times. By the way Db, I saw that you "liked" cl's post, and if you are reading, would love to hear your input on this as well, as you have always written from a very balanced point of view when it comes to volume--you don't seem to bow to the volume gods, but you do recognize their existence. Here are my thoughts: I do agree, and I did not mean to imply that the only price movement that matters is during the daily session, for example. Other world markets are active and generally speaking, the US futures markets are arb'd and on much less volume, often move equal or larger amounts. I understand what you are saying here, and it's an interesting thought, but here is my question in response to this: who is the whale? If the daily players are like barnacles, then what is the whale? Isn't it more like a flock of birds who all move together, rather than some unknown mass with small tag-alongs? I see the activity of the "daily players" as collective activity; they are the market... who else is there? This is probably your strongest argument, and the one I most agree with. Smart/dumb/whatever, does not matter. Speaking of Db, the thing I read that he wrote so many times that stuck in my head is this: volume equals only one thing objectively: participation. So, I do not attempt to assign an intent on what I see, but I do recognize that when volume is higher at some prices (or some time) than another, there is more participation at that area. It very well could be that a broker just got an order from a client to buy at the market, and that it doesn't matter if he buys right now, or after lunch, and that he does not care what price he gets. In this case, it's quite random behavior, and the volume at price won't mean much, but then again, neither will reactions in price, so the market price itself will give a "false reading" of someone's intention here as well. But I digress. I do agree with the first sentence. But it can also severely punish the early. Yesterday is a great example of how the market rewarded quite well any who bought as the market was breaking north of 90 (and who closed before the end of the day ). This is always the tradeoff, good price, or more "confirmation" (if such a thing exists haha). I think this is less a function of markets in general, and more of the market on any given day, whether it is balancing/ranging/mean-reverting, or trending in search of value elsewhere. Well, I'd have to put that first sentence in the "blanket generalization" category, though I do appreciate that as you say it is your opinion which you are certainly entitled to have! I really do enjoy this conversation. Doing this type of thought gets me thinking along lines that I have not thought in a while, and to be honest, creates doubt in me. But doubt is the only way to change and grow. If we only accept things which are in line with what we already believe, then we are doomed to forever hold only one set of beliefs, and doomed to forever be stagnant and unable to grow. So, I will either reinforce what I currently believe more in, or I will change my perspective and try new things. Either way, it's a win-win for everyone who allows the ideas of others to challenge their own.

Put on a half position short here at 96.25, may add to full at 97.75, but won't let it get too far above 98s.

So far we open out of balance, come back convincingly back into yesterday's range, and now our value area is contained entirely within yesterday's upper range. I am looking to sell unless we can break pretty strongly above 98. Would love to see 98 tested ONE more time... The only caveat is that we are finding good support so far a tick above the late march balance VPOC. BTW CLmac, I will read your post when the market quiets down during the lull a bit later. Looking forward to it.

500K contracts traded before the open...

My map for today. We had the 96.25 VPOC test just after the GDP number. 94.50 is the low of yesterday's upper balance, a LVN on the left profile, a "ledge" area on the 4/4 - 4/5 2 day balance area, and had reasonable support overnight. Even if 96.25 were tested and fails, 94.50 is a reasonable buy opportunity. Anything over 87 is a buy for me. If it looks weak, I will look to sell 1402.

Well market is trading 1399.75 so I guess it's hat sandwich for breakfast :rofl:

I see your point. But 5 of last 10 days before today had their highs within 2 points of each other (87 to 89). That was a wall of resistance in my view, and we broke through it today. The thing was that it was about as convincing a breakthrough as Hayden Christensen is an actor (just kidding HC, you're okay). The immediate slide down is evidence that others felt the same way. I hate using the phrase "BS," but today, as a whole, was "BS." Since late 2010, there have been NO days other than holidays that have had at least a 15.25 range and less volume than today (holidays and a couple of rollover days which I don't care to dig further into). And not just the stats part of it, but the sheer way the market looked just embarrassed to be trading higher. It looked like an athlete who doped to win the gold medal and was ashamed to be standing on the winner's podium. It still baffles me, but I won't lose any sleep over it tonight. Hey, maybe 90s will hold and I'll wake up to 1400 (if I do, I'll have Hat Sandwich for breakfast though). Don't get me wrong, the market is still a "buy" and it needs to trade back into the lower balance (below 88s or so) to really warrant a short.

Thank you MM, I had no choice but to ride it, as I left the house at 4:30pm, and had my stops and target in place, and checked in as I was driving home just now to this nice surprise. I had a very good feeling it would do this, but thought it might take at least until 10pm or midnight, it looks like it hit it just after 6pm, wow.

This is very abnormal. 1.3M contracts traded, with the majority of that below 90, and a range of 15.25 ... this is not "healthy" volume IMO. A healthy range of volume for today would be ~1.7 to ~2M. Anything outside of this range spells danger for this breakout, IMO, and we are well below that at 1.3M. Compare this with yesterday's tiny range and higher volume. We get a VPOC shift to 96.25 here at the end of the day.. interesting. See you all later.