joshdance

2ndskies (Chris), I will break precedent and say "job well done" on your site, videos, and post. Sure, there are a few things in your post that are not quite correct, like when you equate orders and transactions, but overall you seem a bit different from other vendors. I watched one of your videos, the 5/21 one where you post a real time aussie trade, which wound up not really working out. I respect much more a vendor who can post a losing trade, than those who never want to be on the record as being wrong. Also, if your bio is accurate, you have lots of experience which I respect. Kudos and welcome to TL. Regarding "balance" which you two are discussing-- if the market, which is always two prices, moves, then it's accurate to say that this movement is caused by an imbalance of buyers and sellers at the market. Thus, it is also accurate to say that there is an imbalance at the low end of a range (more buying pressure), and at the high end of a range (more selling pressure). But if we extrapolate this principle, and consider "the market" to be the low and high of the range, instead of two individual prices, then conceptually the market, in this case, is balanced.

What kind of facts..?

I sold just a bit later, just after 9:40, at 27.75, and then about a minute later at 28.25. However, shorting here, even with evidence of strong selling, is, in my humble opinion, an example of getting in early, before the market truly tipped its hand. We may all have things which we see as the market tipping its hand. For example, I may look for heavy volume in a short period of time. However, really those are more akin to clues ... I agree with N, that the market did not really tip its hand until it actually broke south. Until then, it may just as well have been bluffing. Just to be clear, I'm not saying it wasn't a good short off the open... just that when someone says the market has tipped its hand, I usually am looking for something in the price itself that gives a much more objective indication of its intention. Just my !

bakrob, this morning, when did the market tip its hand, in your opinion of things? (like, specifically what time)?

Thanks for humoring me N -- but how did you know there was a high probability we would continue higher? A data set of some kind? Not likely... more likely, experience. So, your edge is experience -- not particularly tangible or transferable really... In this case, why call it an edge? It may function that way, but it's not something you can teach or tell someone else...

lol sneaky sneaky!!!

Specifically, can you give an example of an edge?

Define "edge" ......

I understanding your point, but trading this way can also lead to the type of trading where any time the market goes against you just a little, or it comes to your entry after going in your favor a few ticks, you exit, and then miss what was otherwise a great trade. I'm not saying one way is right or wrong, and I do agree that the best trades are the ones that go in our direction almost instantly and never come back. But when one is quick to pull the plug on a trade that has not yet had the opportunity to work or not, then it can lead to frustration.

"Trial," I think it's suppose to be.

If your data does not come from a broker, it will cost you. You can go to tradingview.com -- they have real time stocks and you can at least watch the indexes, but you will be unable to look at real time futures data. Freestockcharts.com has a similar interface. If you are trading stocks, this will be idea. For other products, it may not suit your needs. Bottom line is, you gotta pay to play, even if it's just a small amount.

Actually, I wasn't referring to that at all... in an OTC market like forex, a transaction like this does not have to be recorded (i.e., be made public), and may forever go unknown to everyone except the two parties involved. In fact, that's the whole thing with OTC; there is no way to know volume or transactions or anything like that. Let's say euro closes (I'm talking generally here, as there is no real price for forex) at 1.2500 on Friday. On Sunday when the first markets open, the opening price is around 1.2550 -- the question is, why? It is no secret of course, and the answer is easily found, but I think asking a provocative question is likely to stimulate more thought than simply blurting out the answer. When people talk about gaps, I think it should be understood why a market opens at a different price than when it closes, when no transactions occur during that period. It's not like the market was bought or sold during that time. Personally I don't concern myself with the notion of gaps too much, and I certainly don't put much statistical weight into whether one is likely to be filled or not, but I'm giving Asia's #1 forex mentor an opportunity to demonstrate his understanding of gaps, since he's #1.

It's a common occurrence, and rarely will the VWAP go untouched after the first part of the trading day, except on a very very strong trending day. It's a common target, and it's not based on voodoo either, which is a good thing, in my book. Sometimes the market will hit the VWAP and resume it's prior direction, other times it will trap those looking for continuation of the trend and keep moving past, reversing the original move. At the end of the day, it's not a magic line, but it is a benchmark that means something to many traders, and hence I keep it on my chart.

Thanks Mystic. All of those are simply subjective ways to interpret the resulting gap, and the article does not explain the mechanics of a gap either. I was referring to the fact that the #1 forex mentor in all of Asia (by his own opinion) didn't quite get it right regarding what a gap is and why it happens. Perhaps it's just semantics to some people, but I think understanding the mechanics of a gap, and what a gap is may really be quite useful. I was giving Asia's best an opportunity to explain it in more detail.

It's an organization that's supposed to be an advocate for the consumer. If someone has a complaint against a business, they report it to the BBB, and others can see the complaint, and if it was investigated, and if the matter was resolved. It used to be a mark of a reputable business to have this. As you can see from this video, all it takes these days is a few bucks to be A+ rated. [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yo8kfV9kONw]Better Business Bureau 20/20 Investigation - YouTube[/ame]

You joined three years ago, but your third post ever was last week -- you're not really a member, you're more like an onlooker. A member contributes, or attempts to. Not that it's good or bad; just saying, it's kind of strange that you don't post here, yet you say you know the member mindset simply by reading others' posts. Typically you have conversations with others to really get the culture, not just observe from afar. Might I add that you are the one who originally posted here on this thread, back somewhere around post #21 or #23, sarcastically making light of the topic of "price" doing something versus a "market" doing something. I didn't bite, even when you mentioned your "students." I appreciate your generosity Roger, honestly, I do. I'd like to mention one thing though: many people have reason to believe that the BBB is not exactly the upstanding organization many people think it is. I'll post something on this later when I have more time if any wish. So, congrats for being in it, but I'm not impressed. Still, I do respect that you seem to be a very upright and moral individual. Kudos for being one of the few in this business. This sounds like sour grapes, and the kid who leaves the playground kicking the dirt. No need to go there Roger. I'm sure a few helpless traders will be tugging at your coat with private messages, begging to be one of the ones you help for free. You have threatened at least three times to leave, but you're still selling on your way out.

Well, since the market is closed, it can't really "have some movements before the market opens." Want to try again, or rephrase?

Only a spontaneous discussion of who's likely to win the NBA championship would take this thread more off topic. Unsubscribing.

You may want to consider forexfactory if you haven't been there yet. Lots of truly fresh meat ... their 'Trading Systems' subforum seems to be very active, see the attached picture. All of these updated in the last 10 hours alone! Plenty of real newbies there who are searching for the latest grail that will help them be successful without actually engaging their brains. Just look at those thread titles -- all "systems" designed to make trading easy... remove the trading decisions from the human and offload to a computer => remove the discretion => remove the thinking => remove the accountability ... equals... "it's not me, it's my system"... repeat the process with a new "system"... Isn't that pretty much how it goes?

Purely conjecture, but I doubt that research and ideas are what make big money for big banks. Spoofing is not illegal in the least. Washing is, but search for the recent claim against RBC and you'll see that washing is still a practice that goes on (allegedly anyway).

Three that immediately come to mind: Spoofing with large orders on the bid, sitting on the offer (and vice versa) Buying a breakout with large size to excite retail, who continues the buying, while you sit on the offer up higher to get a better price (and vice versa) Actually holding the bid or offer, with size

If the pivot is calculated (H+L+C)/3 as is usual, think of the pivot as a "close-weighted median." The pivot takes the entire day's range into account (H and L), and adds a weighting to the close. Using the close by itself ignores the range of the day and looks only at where the market finished. Over the course of several weeks or months, either will probably not yield too different results, as either value will still follow the market's general direction and both values will be inside each day's range.

And do you happen to have software that can do this for sale? Yes, you do.. what a coincidence. You've just been banned from another forum.. seeking new revenue streams here? In full disclosure, shouldn't you be registered as a vendor here? It's in your profile settings.

Excellent post and thank you bakrob. In your first paragraph quoted above, I am not sure whether you are calling something a "Low Closing Highest Volume Price" or whether you mean "RTH High, Low, Close" -- can you clarify? I plotted the closes, and good observation that in the last 7 days, two closes at 1322, two at 1316, and one in 14s-- 5 closes within 8 points of each other. I was also looking for a long today in the afternoon, but I did not see the same "aggressive buying" off the lows that you refer to, unless you mean the move out of consolidation into 16s. At that point near the bottom, the market was simply coiling, and had a decent chance of down as well as up, though I was looking for up. The liquidity pulled on the spike up out of consolidation, shorts essentially giving way. One more spike down and failure at 08 and I was a buyer, but we didn't get it so I was not in the move up.

Not only were 578K orders sold, as you say, but they were also bought As for who did it, who knew what, etc., I have no idea and nor does anyone else. But a quick profile of that drop shows that the bulk of the volume actually took place at 90.00.