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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Don't have the chart in front of me but there was a bullish push up from 22 probably 10 mins before 2pm. After that I put the order in for 22, and the premise was clear--that if we break the low (19.75) that has been established over the last 30 mins or so, then I'm wrong. With 2 ticks risk I doubled my usual size, but the problem is that I did not plan my exits clearly beforehand. 24, 26, and 33 were logical, with a move to BE at 24 (if it came back down again, I had no doubt I did not want to be long) Actually I would like to hear what some of your entries and exits were as I'm still new to ES and am looking for what some good trade ideas were.
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This week I was up but would up flat after a down day today. Overall, not too bad, but I've got to get out of scalper mentality and set reasonable stops and let things work out more. For example, today I bought 22 at 2pm, and used a 2 tick stop. Perfect entry, and then I closed for +2 even though I saw the buying coming in. I should have scalped out 1/4 or 1/2 at 24 and held for at least 26. Then I saw a good re-entry at 25 but did not take it. Stuff like that is what's killing me right now.
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No was not, have not been trading oil since I started ES.. my limited focus only allows for one market at a time
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The Importance of Structural Reference.
joshdance replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
Thanks WRB, could you give a concrete example of what you mean by different contexts within a single day? Could this be several news events, such as a report being released, and at the same time news from europe, etc.? Technically (non news related), what might this be? -
The red profile you have is a 6 day balance you said. There is more overlap, and if you make it an 8 or 9 day balance, it shows a nice distribution around 90.
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The Importance of Structural Reference.
joshdance replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
Thanks you two. With respect to the NFP trade, I appreciate that you two saw things differently than I did. Just for feedback, here's a shot of the action--granted, it's a static picture and things look different in real time, however, it looks pretty much as I recall: big spike up, low volume shallow pullback for a few minutes, and then a secondary push up. The thing is, as you can see from the volume on the bottom, the active buying actually increased all the way up to the peak. I can see the offers hold when I look at the tick chart though. After this of course selling came in, but it doesn't appear too strong. Again, maybe I just don't remember it well or have it framed in my mind that it was a very weak move down. I'm well aware of different volume patterns that can occur at extremes but this doesn't appear as anything unusual; in other words, even as it meandered down slowly, my mind was on continuation and thinking long, because the selling looked weak. In fact, up until the very minute of the open there was no volume, and after the first push down there was actually quite a nice bit of buying. At any rate, thanks for the feedback guys. 2011-10-19_2334 - joshtrader's library -
The Importance of Structural Reference.
joshdance replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
Are you talking about fundamental "events," such as those news-related? At what point would you say that it was clear that selling would continue? After all, we had been in a nice big upswing for 3 days prior, and the move down after the NFP release was quite tame if I recall. Yet you said that you could anticipate the open based on this. Can you elaborate a little steve? I just don't quite connect what I see and what you're saying. -
The Importance of Structural Reference.
joshdance replied to TheNegotiator's topic in Technical Analysis
N, I've read the posts, good stuff. Anything else relative to this subject you can post here? You noted places where the initial activity of the market may be categorized better than the traditional 60m IB window. Would you elaborate on this? I saw your reference to news release time and how that may affect whether the IB is earlier or later, but perhaps you can expound a little. Or, is there a case to be made for it not being related to the passage of time at all? Anything else you or anyone wants to share will be welcome. -
So, you're self-proclaimed lazy, yet you want someone to be your trading buddy. Why would anyone want to partner up with someone who admits he's lazy? What's in it for the other person? Anyway, I'm through trying to help, as it seems from your responses that you already know everything, and this has degraded into a waste of time for anyone reading or writing here.
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Value area boundary?
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Fishy in what way N? Seems to me that sellers are selling at a major resistance point, but buyers want to hold it as they continue buying every little dip, and they were strong overnight. Would love to hear your thoughts.
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I think two (or more) traders can help each other be accountable, for example. And post-trade discussion can also be helpful. And I've had people who have helped me quite a bit by talking and chatting with. But sitting there chatting whether it be typing or voice during the trading day will in the long run be a hindrance IMO. You still have to trade what you see, and you will have your decisions influenced by someone else, and win or lose, you lose, because it wasn't totally your decision, and you won't gain the confidence you need. I will reiterate though that I do think post-trading day chat can be helpful.
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This will probably only handicap you. Trading is very personal; even reading and sharing on forums is getting to be counterproductive for me in most cases. You keep seeing the market go up, for example, and these crazies keep shorting and averaging down, losing money, everyone is talking about fall, fall, fall, and I look at myself and think, "am I crazy because I'm longing, or are they crazy"? You must learn to trust yourself and your own analysis and methods.
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What specifically doesn't work? And what's wrong with "just say no"? Sometimes the best solutions to complex problems are often simple.
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I thought I would post this from Joe Ross's blog, as it kind of fits this thread:
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I just checked it out, and it doesn't seem to register extremes as clearly as nyse tick, seems more "stable" ...
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Just curious to get your thoughts. Obviously there's no stock answer but I'm always looking to pick brains. Here we see 4 distinct areas of balance. Each has a pretty clearly defined high and low. When looking to buy at a pullback, generally will you be looking to buy the upper portion of a balance area, the low volume area between one of them, near the lower portion of a balance (as right now it's finding support at 89.50, for example, at 11:13am ET), or near the center, highest volume portion of the balance? I suppose the answer ultimately must be, wait for price to confirm, and then act. However, what is your general thought process before this happens, if anything? 2011-10-11_1109 - joshtrader's library
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Is this scheduled?..
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Thanks! ES has been fun so far.
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Only like this kind of day if you get in early long. Considered a long at 73 on the nice pullback, when 73 was the local POC at the time, but since then it's been a case of jump on if you want in.
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Nice article Rande, especially the next to last paragraph, great stuff.
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That's not what I said at all. Which market? What are you talking about? Why would someone buy and sell to himself without any other volume to take advantage of more price movement? When you buy and sell to yourself you don't make any money. You need someone else to manipulate for this to work, and you're talking about a situation with very low volume. So, again, I don't understand. How is any of this relevant to actual trading?
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Don't know if this is what you're looking for, but... Imagine 10 people gathered in a room, 5 who owned a widget, and 5 who wanted to own a widget. The 5 who owned a widget would each offer a price. Say, $5,$6, and the other three at $7. The buyers bid $3,$2, and the other three bid $1. The spread is $2. The spread is simply the difference between the best offer ($5) and the best bid ($3). If one bidder (say, one of the ones who's bidding $1) decides to pay up and buy the best offer at $5, then the spread will be $3 (best bid is still $3 and best offer is still $6). If one of the other offers (say, one of the ones offering $7) lowers his offer to $4, then the spread will now be $1. This is the way the market works. A gap occurs because the lowest offers and highest bids change between the time the market closes and when it reopens. For example, if the bid/offer on ES is 1100/1101 at the close on Friday at 4:15pm, and over the weekend the S&P downgrades the US's credit rating (does this sound familiar?), suddenly the picture changes, and the best offers to sell (because this is bad news) will be lower, and the best bids to buy will be lower as well. At the open on Sunday at 6pm, the market, that is, traders who bid and offer, reach some equilibrium point, say at 1050/1055, and thus when the market opens, it will open here, and price has "gapped".
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That's what I did basically, only not seeing your chart first, I profiled the move down and the volume was concentrated there. This is basically what you're saying, yes?
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Do you consider the close more significant than the settlement? In terms of gaps perhaps? BTW, watching ES today, took one scratch trade so far, and had a limit just now to sell at 61.25, but it ticked to 60.00 and reversed down. 61.25 was the VPOC of the move down from earlier today. Almost but no cigar!