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joshdance
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Everything posted by joshdance
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Nice job steve, hope you left some on for that monster selloff
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Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price
joshdance replied to VTK's topic in Trading Videos
There is a section "Attach Files" and a "Manage Attachments" button.. you can upload from computer or URL. -
I count from memory and a brief glance at chart four days in a row where we've had basically the same thing: brief rally to start, then selloff, then rally into close. Something tells me we can't keep this pattern up every day from now till eternity :-) Wish we could though :-D
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Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price
joshdance replied to VTK's topic in Trading Videos
Thanks VTK -- I would switch from photobucket if I were you Try screencast, or chartupload.com, or better yet upload them to TL's servers so there's not a bunch of spam when you click them... -
So, we have a value area for today (right blue box) and now that price has dipped below that, the volume is noticeably lighter.. yes there's development, but not like we saw earlier. YET, we are spending a good deal of TIME in this area. Buyers are not quick to reject value below 57.50 (VAL). So, in terms of time, we have more acceptance than in trading activity. Thoughts? EDIT: for kicks, the second picture uses TPO instead of volume.
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75.25 because it's the "boundary" before the next high volume balance? And 66.50 because it's the "peak"? Kind of like, we have to get over the top of this peak, and then up to the next peak, before we can move on? Also, when you talk about seeing development and not just tests--how do you determine this? For me I look for a break of an area and then both trading activity, AND passage of time, which I feel is important. How about you?
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Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price
joshdance replied to VTK's topic in Trading Videos
Thanks VTK, looks good -- also if you can provide any criteria on why you think these look like good levels, as opposed to other nearby levels, etc. -
Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price
joshdance replied to VTK's topic in Trading Videos
Again, I would love to see you pick these in advance. And I look at charts of various markets I do not trade and think the same thing all the time: "I can see why that level held" .. and so on. But I think it would be even more helpful to quantify a level in advance, call it, and then see what happens. It's not very helpful really to say "see how it stopped right there, that was expected" ... any trader can see a good trade after it has happened, the challenge and where all can learn more is doing it before or as it happens. -
Agree with the simplicity, however, ask your acquaintance to give it a try with real money for a month and see how it works for him. Then ask him if it's as easy as it looks.
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Good point Steve! Out of sheer curiosity, why do you use a 45s chart, as opposed to say a 1m or 30s chart?
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The test down to 38.75 at 12:45pm was by far the best long trade for the day, in terms of heat taken (none) and reward potential. Not until just after 12pm was there good confirmation of a long, though the order flow changed quite clearly around 11:20am to bullish. I planned to buy 39, but after seeing the test of 38.75 and quick pop up, I had my buy sitting at 39 and did not get filled. I should have been willing to pay up to 39.50 but did not unfortunately, and never got on the move up. (I posted this all real time at another site, just to verify that I'm not talking out of my *** and read it this way as it happened but don't want to post external links to other forums out of respect for N )
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This happened to coincide with 3:30pm ET, however it was hardly a good trade on such a bull dominated day. I also used to look for 2:00pm moves in crude oil, a half hour before close, and have noticed 3:30 moves in ES. But my point is that shorting because it's 3:30 there was not necessarily the best trade, though if one is going to short on a day like that, then the volume and time of day gives about as good a reason as any to try it if that's what you want.
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yes why? ..........
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Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price
joshdance replied to VTK's topic in Trading Videos
Next time you should post the supply level in advance. -
Good call Negotiator on the volatility...
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Sam Seiden-Understanding The Exact Process Behind The Movement In Price
joshdance replied to VTK's topic in Trading Videos
Thanks for the videos -- you should download and use camstudio, it allows you to record videos longer than 5 minutes unlike screencast which cut you off. -
For convenience here are the remaining items for today: 1345 GMT (9:45 EDT): Head of EU task force on Greece Horst Reichenbach holds press conference after meeting with Bank of Greece Governor George Provopoulos. 1515-1545 GMT (11:15 EDT): Arrival of members of the European Council for summit meetings in Brussels. 1600-1700 GMT (4:00 PM EDT): EU leaders working session followed by euro-zone summit. 1715 GMT: Working dinner to be followed by press conference by the president of the European Council and the president of the European Commission. National briefings in the press center.
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Either 2 or 3 usually, though I did 4 the other day but that's unusual -- issues just that I feel that when I let me stop be quite wide, that it often will go and test anyway, and so instead of a small loss, I wind up with a larger loss for no good reason. That's probably a case though of bad entry timing, PLUS a larger stop. With a good entry like I had this AM at 40, a larger stop (1 tick in this case) would have saved me and made a very profitable trade opportunity.
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4 ticks -- I know you'll say it's too small and I do agree but having issues making it larger
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Good timing, I just put in my order to buy 43.25
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Indeed -- I got in that mode where I'm pissed because I sold the low tick--I'd rather get run over and be dead wrong than miss my targets (42 and 48) by a 1 tick stop out. :doh:
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39 was low vol on which profile? Remind me again, you use 30 minutes as your OR right?
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So N, in this intraday profile I see three distinct distributions, with the bulk of time and volume now being at 48.50 -- can you tell me your thoughts as you see this? I entered a long at 40 earlier but stopped out to the tick at 39 BTW, quite frustrating! I see this and I am thinking long, on a pullback to either 46 or 43. Would love to hear your thoughts as you're seeing this.
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Here is a profile with areas of interest marked: First a 9 day profile showing the 1180 to 1230 ish range: 2011-10-23_2217 - joshtrader's library Now just the last 5 days, the weekly profile: 2011-10-23_2221 - joshtrader's library Areas of interest below: 1216 - 1220 (weekly pivot, VAH, s/r for thurs/fri) 1207 - 1208.50 (vpoc) 1201 - 1204 (weekly S1, s/r from thurs/fri and prior week, low volume zone) 1185 - 1189 (pw-low, major support, VAL) Longer term players looking at a 240m or daily chart will only see support around 80-85, IMO. For above: 2011-10-23_2232 - joshtrader's library I don't see anything really until 1252-1259. Projecting beyond that I would venture a guess at 1290, but it's really pointless to look there right now IMO; we need more information.
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Here's the anatomy of the trade idea: 2011-10-22_0940 - joshtrader's library Here's a 5m showing a profile of the move up, and the cluster of activity where the move down was halted: 2011-10-22_1002 - joshtrader's library I don't really use the longer term profiles that much -- from a macro perspective I think they can be useful, but for me it's like looking at a weekly or monthly chart to find s/r levels, yet I'm trading off of a 1m or 5m chart. Much in the same way that once a price level of support or resistance has been "violated" and clearly is not providing support or resistance any longer, then it becomes less important in the current context, I find that also the more recent the profile I look at, the more I valid its areas will be for me. I think that only at the extremes (say, highs and lows) does previous activity really matter a significant amount. For me it's a case of seeing too much forest, and then missing the trees So for me the most useful profiling has been a few days worth at most, and yesterday's, and today's intraday profile (and the overnight globex as well). I think this is basically what I responded to above. Basically the answer has been for me, as I am a short term day trader, what is going on NOW? On a larger scale the volume concentration at a given area that happened 2 years ago is quite relevant, but on a minute by minute basis, today, it's more important to me that I see support forming at 22, for example, than the fact that it's not a notable area on the longer term profile. I'm trading live yes, and I'm using a basic fixed fractional size based on how large my stop is, and the smallest size based on whether I want to scale and if so how many units. Do you wait for current price confirmation, even if you have a trade planned out in advance? In reviewing my trades, the dumb ones where I get steamrolled are the ones where I have an idea, and then put the order in, and don't wait for any good reason at the time of the trade, instead of waiting to see if my premise is correct, and THEN placing the trade.